Archive for the ‘ Flat ’ Category

07 Feb
2009

Big value Saturday Horseracing tips!?

Shrewd South Devon trainer Liam Corcoran sends his only runner of the day Nothing Is Forever on a 410 mile round trip to contest a 1m 6f handicap at Wolverhampton this afternoon, and the five-year-old is worth an each way interest at 10/1 with both Betfred and Sportingbet.
 
Having shown a marked improvement since a switch to Corcoran’s Kingsbridge base, including a win over hurdles, he was travelling like a winner quarter of a mile from home at Lingfield last time over 2 miles, and now dropping back in trip he can take a hand in this weak 46-60 rated contest.
 
He also benefits from an eye-catching jockey booking with Robert Winston taking over steering duties.
 
Meanwhile over at Lingfield it could pay to have an interest in Charlie Longsdon’s Prairie Spirit in the 1m 2f handicap at 3.35pm.
 
Very highly touted on the Flat in France he was snapped up by owner Alan Halsall (Haydock Champion Hurdle trial winner Songe runs in the same colours) to go hurding, but having disappointed in that sphere he returns to the level here having had a wind op.
 
How that’ll improve him remains to be seen but the 40/1 (generally available) about a young horse who bagged middle distance races at the more prestigious tracks for fun in France (most recently Maisons-Laffitte & Longchamp) is the wrong price entirely.
 
 
Good luck!

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Posted 9 years, 5 months ago

05 Feb
2009

Look to Nad Al Sheba for a Thursday winner?

Mike de Kock’s Imbongi looks to be the best bet on a cracking card at Nad Al Sheba on Thursday afternoon – a three-time Grade 2 winner at home in South Africa last year – Imbongi has delighted connections with his work since arriving and can score at the first time of asking in Dubai in the Marju Trophy at 6.15pm.
 
The slight drop in trip to the extended six furlongs should be to his advantage, and with bags of speed to overcome a wide draw it can prove worthwhile to snap up a bit of 9/2 with Stan James.
 
Imbongi should ultimately prove a good deal better than this and could well be one to follow.

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Posted 9 years, 5 months ago

22 Jan
2009

Destination Dubai for a Thursday Winner

The best bet of the day comes in the 4:55 at Nad AL Sheba, where Mike De Kock’s Quicksand is a confident selection to land the Ford Mustang Trophy.

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Posted 9 years, 5 months ago

11 Dec
2008

All Aboard for Cheltenham, Navan and Sha Tin? Tips

All roads lead to Cheltenham this Friday & Saturday for yours truly, and there’s opportunities a plenty on what looks a cracking card:

Friday’s best bet comes in the Boylepoker.com H’Cap Chase (1.55pm) as Character Building returns to fences in a fascinating looking contest which features 2006 SunAlliance winner Star De Mohaison, this year’s National winner Comply Or Die, plus a host of quality horses.

We missed out on Hennessy Day when Character Building pulled out of his stable lame at breakfast time and failed to make the trip south, and judging by the disappointment in trainer John Quinn’s voice when he broke the news, he was expected to run a mighty race.

Now though, two weeks on, set to carry just 10st 9lb, he’s fit and well and ready to do himself justice at a decent price in his first run over the larger obstacles since finishing third to Denman in the 2007 Hennessy, so get on each way.

Also on Friday – the Cheltenham regulars love the intricacies of the Cross Country course, and the Glenfarclas Cross Country Chase over 3m 7f (1.20pm) is always worth an interest.

Garde Champetre was second in the equivalent race at the November meeting, and could very well go one better with Nina Carberry in the plate, but he has to shoulder 11st 12lb, and with his odds likely to be prohibitively short in the circumstances I prefer to look down the weights for something far less exposed.

The one that appeals to me is Tawnies, who’ll be any price you like with the bookmakers, but is sent over by Thomas O’Leary with a genuine each way chance.

At the time of writing the Cross Country track is heavy in places, and this fella wants mud up to his neck.

He’s unlikely to be found lacking for stamina, and made a fair impression when fourth to Drombeag at Punchestown on his first attempt at a banks course. Factor in that he sneaks in off a true weight of 10st, and you have a fair case for a small each way bet.

Saturday’s card is where I’ll be looking to do some real damage, and in the shape of Binocular we’ve got the horse to form the cornerstone of many a multiple bet in the Boylesports International (3.05pm).

Punters’ll be rowing in with Nicky Henderson’s Champion Hurdle jolly (7/2 best at the time of writing), and with good reason. They absolutely rave about this animal at Seven Barrows.

Beaten only once since joining team Henderson (by Captain Cee Bee when second in the Supreme Novice), the four-year-old made a decent return to the track when winning an egg and spoon contest at long odds on, and at 6/4 (general) he can rubber stamp his Championship claims at the expense of Crack Away Jack, Katchit and Chomba Womba.

Earlier in the day the superstar that took the old Bula Hurdle three years in succession in 1997, ’98 & ’99, is commemorated in the Relkeel Hurdle at 1.20pm, a race which should go the way of another Henderson inmate Punchestowns.

The way he came readily clear when winning over 2m 5f under top weight on the Sunday of the Open Meeting in an intermediate hurdle means he is entitled to continue his progress here, and with the stable in such sparkling form he’s tough to oppose. ?

Starluck is already at least joint favourite in all but one firm’s list for the Triumph Hurdle, and he should be supported to continue his winning streak in the Juvenile Novices’ Hurdle at 12.15pm. His 18 length Fakenham romp was especially taking last time out.

To the delight of each way backers a quality field of 16 poll up for the Boylesports.com Gold Cup at 2.30pm, and I’m sweet on the chances of Finger Onthe Pulse making an impact with AP McCoy booked to do the steering.

The seven-year-old won the Jewson over a similar trip at the Festival, clearly relishes the track, and ran second to Noland at Down Royal last month, form that has been neatly franked by Noland Grade 1 win at Punchestown on Tuesday.

Plenty of pundits are understandably making a strong case for clear favourite Imperial Commander, but at 15/8 I prefer to look elsewhere since trainer Nigel Twiston-Davies’s horses are 1/26 in the last fortnight.

Instead snap up a slice of the 8/1 each way with William Hill, and hope trainer Tom Taaffe can secure the same prize his Dad Pat won as a jockey on Flyingbolt in 1965. It’s probably also worth knowing the sponsor’s have decent money back concession, if your selection finishes second you’ll get your money back.  

Sunday’s action takes us far and wide, from the rural charm of County Meath to the urban delights of Sha Tin, and these horses should keep you glued to the action:

I was at Navan a fortnight ago to see Pandorama stroll enjoy little more than a canter around Navan’s scenic undulations, and Noel Meade’s son of Flemensfirth should step up to Grade 1 level with the minimum of fuss in the Barry & Sandra Kelly Memorial Novices’ Hurdle (1.20pm).

He faces a maximum of three opponents, including stablemate Donnas Palm (2nd to Hurricane Fly in the Royal Bond), and with the best experience of any of these it should be a bloodless task.

Sadly I won’t be at Sha Tin on Sunday, but fotunately Mike de Kock will, and his Eagle Mountain can finally land the Group 1 success he so richly deserves in the Hong Kong Cup. If any one horse deserves a Group 1 success it’s Eagle Mountain – he has Derby 2nd, a Champion Stakes 2nd and a Breeders’ Cup Turf second on his CV, and crucially is still on the upgrade.

Said to have acclimatized well since his time Stateside his jockey Kevin Shea is sweet on his chances, and he can deny home-team favourite Viva Pataca and land us a handsome return at 5/2 (general).

The locals could be in for more bad news in the Group 1 Sprint where Marchand D’Or can get the better of Apache Cat – take the 11/4 with Victor Chandler or Blue Square and watch Marchand D’Or prove he’s not just the best in Europe, but top of the pile worldwide.

Good luck!

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Posted 9 years, 7 months ago

06 Nov
2008

Cox & Drowne can Electrify Town Moor

It’s full steam ahead for Donny and the last day of the Flat this weekend, and punters up and down the land are busy trying to work out the puzzle which is the Tote scoop6 November Handicap.

A fair conundrum it is too, but in Clive Cox’s ultra-progressive three-year-old Electrolyser I’ve got a strong suspicion we’ve unearthed the horse to light up Town Moor at 3.10pm on Saturday afternoon.

Word reaches me from the depths of Lambourn that the lightly raced youngster is bang in form to continue the upward curve that saw him win with a bit in hand on his first try at a mile and a half at Leicester, and he had some good animals in behind that day.

This striking grey colt, a son of the great Daylami no less, who has produced some cracking three-year-olds, can take this big pot on only his fifth start, at a general price of 6/1 including Paddypower and Ladbrokes.

Drawn well in gate 15 he relishes some give underfoot, which is a good thing as the weather forecast says it’ll be tipping it down in South Yorkshire come Saturday.

What’s more our selection sneaked into the race by the skin of his teeth at the very foot of the weights with a meagre 8st 7lb to shoulder.

The excellent Steve Drowne takes the ride, which reminds me that a year ago on the corresponding Friday night I looked on in admiration as across our table as said jockey piled in, consuming his own body weight in grub in Donny’s best Italian restaurant.

Maybe best lay off the nosebag this year though, he had to do 9st 4lb in the big race on Heron Bay in 2007!

The stats are pretty handy too with three-year-olds taking five of the last nine runnings, and a double figure berth responsible for eight of the last 10 winners.

His trainer is upbeat about his chances too:

“I am pleased with the progress he has made throughout this season. He’s quite lightly raced in comparison to some of the other horses entered but I don’t think it will be a problem. Pippa Greene won the same Leicester race as Electrolyser last season and she had a similar profile when she was sent off favourite for last year’s November Handicap.
“He’s definitely progressive and he’s going there in excellent form. There was plenty of give in the give in the ground at Leicester and I think he’s a better on a softer surface. I am confident that he will give a good account of himself.”

The other one in the field who appeals for each way purposes at a tempting 14/1 is Amanda Perrett’s Night Crescendo – I’ll be having an each way saver as the never-say-die fiver-year-old made the frame at a whopping 50/1 off an identical mark of 94 a year ago.

He’s forgotten how to lose since being fitted with cheekpieces by his clued up handler, and it’d be no surprise to see him in the shake up at the business end of the race.

Expect him to be right up there mixing it from the start, and it would be a fitting end to a great campaign for talented pilot Jim Crowley if he were to nick this one.

Tom’s November Handicap Tips
3:10 Doncaster (Saturday) Electrolyser to win @ 6/1
3:10 Doncaster (Saturday) Night Crescendo each way @ 14/1

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Posted 9 years, 8 months ago

06 Nov
2008

Look Out for the Invisible Man at Great Leighs

The word coming out of Newmarket is that John Gosden has got a very useful two year old prospect on his hands in the form of Invisible Man, with a few shrewdies already sniffing around for prices for the 2009 Epsom Derby.
 
He makes his racecourse debut in the 8:20 at Great Leighs tonight, and his short price (6/4 at the time of writing) reflects the fact we expect him to get off to a winning start.
 
You could also do worse than ring up your chosen layer and ask for a few shillings each way for next June at 66/1.
 
I just can’t see this getting beat!

Don’t forget, Paddypower offer best odds guaranteed on all races so if backing Invisible Man, be sure to take the early price. Plus all new customers can claim a £30 Free Bet

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Posted 9 years, 8 months ago

03 Nov
2008

Stick With Septimus For Melbourne Cup Profit

The battle for Melbourne Cup favouritism has become as fierce as ever as the big race draws ever closer. Long term antepost favourite, Septimus, has been the subject to a market drift on Monday following concerns from Irish trainer, Aidan O’Brien, over the state of the Flemington ground, fearing that it could possibly be too firm for the son of Saddler’s Wells. As a result, it is another Northern Hemisphere Raider in the form of the Luca Cumani trained Mad Rush that has joined Septimus at the top of the betting. Both are generally available at 4/1 with most major Bookmakers with the Ballydoyle representative a best price 9/2 with Sportingbet and Stan James.

Despite the fears over the ground, Septimus still remains the class horse in the field and will take all the beating. If O’Brien does decide to run him, we must trust his judgement and believe that he has a great chance of winning and defying top weight.

Should Septimus not get the run then it may well be worth siding with another Irish runner in Profound Beauty, who has come in for plenty of noteworthy support in the last few days. Trained by two times winning Melbourne Cup trainer, Dermot Weld (most recently in 2002 with Media Puzzle), this filly can take advantage of the weights to end a progressive season in fine style.

Melbourne Cup Tips

Septimus (with a run) to win 9/2 @ Stan James.com – Free £25 Bet
Profound Beauty each way @ 8/1 with – Ladbrokes Free £25 bet

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Posted 9 years, 8 months ago

31 Oct
2008

Labisa Has Great Chance at Wolverhampton

There’s some value to be had in the fillies’ maiden run over the extended mile at Wolverhampton this evening where Hughie Morrison’s well-bred youngster Labisa can make the frame at the third time of asking.

She showed some improvement in a much more competitive race at Donny last time, and if taking to the surface will be an each way bet to nothing, with the 6/1 on offer with Ladbrokes worth an interest to get the weekend off to a healthy start.

The stable are in good nick & the word from within is that this daughter og High Chaparral can continue the trend.

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Posted 9 years, 8 months ago

24 Oct
2008

Breeders Cup Preview

What a weekend in store! Top class racing of every discipline everywhere you look, and punters with an eye on the European invasion of the Breeders’ Cup will be itching to get started later on Friday night.

The big antepost gamble of the meeting so far has seen Bobby Frankel’s Ventura halved in price by all the firms over the last couple of days (generally 5/1 from 10/1 but as short as 7/2 in places) for Friday evening’s Filly & Mare Sprint, and her speed played late on could well put the bookmakers 1-0 down, but we’ll wait for Saturday for a couple of decent chances:

One of those is US Ranger, sent over by Aidan O’Brien for the Breeders’ Cup Mile (8.15pm Saturday) and each-way at 12/1 with bet365 and Blue Square (bigger on the American Tote) he can make the frame at a tasty price.

Obvious dangers include French-trained short-priced jolly Goldikova, winner of her last three after twice running into the roadblock which is Zarkava, plus last year’s winner Kip Deville, but at their likely short prices we’ll shop elsewhere.

As I mentioned above US Ranger will go off at a monster price on the American Tote, so it may pay to wait and take the local price as year-on-year we see the ‘away team’ available at hugely inflated odds.

What’s in his favour? He might be tricky to win with, but he’s been knocking on the door in a heap of top races, and could well appreciate the step up in trip on a track that could bring out the best of him, with tight bends and an emphasis on a speed finish which could well see the four-year-old son of Danzig in the shake-up.

Also on the Turf track Eagle Mountain can give South African master trainer Mike de Kock a long overdue Breeders’ Cup success in the aptly named Breeders’ Cup Turf (11pm Sat); out injured for 12 months after running second to Literato in the 2007 Champion Stakes, he bounced back on his first run for de Kock at the first time of asking at Newmarket’s Cambridgeshire meeting to take the Group 3 Joel Stakes.

The word is that winning re-appearance has done him a world of good, and at a standout 6/1 he rates a cracking each-way prospect with Ladbrokes.

A quick word about the all-weather surface: Santa Anita’s synthetic ‘Pro-Ride’ track is likely to ride on the fast side, and we should see a successful trip for several European raiders, with underfoot conditions likely to inconvenience many of them far less than the dirt they would otherwise have encountered.

The chief beneficiary of which could be Henrythenavigator. The Breeders’ Cup Classic (11.45pm) looks set to be a corker, and he can punish a generous quote of 8/1 from both Blue Square and Sporting Bet.

A four-time Group 1 winner including both the English and Irish Guineas, St James’s Palace and Sussex Stakes in consecutive races, the obvious concern is he has never raced over further than a mile, but let’s not forget it wasn’t many moons ago he was being talked about as a potential Derby horse, and the race could be run to suit.

He loves firm ground, and sees his races out like a runaway train, and in my book ‘Henry’ looks a far more attractive each-way investment at the current prices than reigning champ Curlin, who has looked as if his ‘powers’ could be on the wane in recent appearances.
The stats are miserable for horses returning to the race after having previously been placed in it, and we’ll row in with ‘Henry’ at a value price to at least make the frame.

Breeders Cup Tips

Breeders Cup Mile Odds Comparison – US Ranger (each-way).
Live Breeders Cup Turf Betting Odds – Eagle Mountain (each-way).
Latest Breeders Cup Classic Odds – Henrythenavigator (each-way).

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Posted 9 years, 8 months ago

17 Oct
2008

Laddies Poker Two Not Expected to be a Flop at Newmarket

Laddies Poker Two is the bet of the day on the opening day of the two day Championship Meeting at Newmarket. This three year old filly owned by bookmaker Ladbrokes has made an impressive start to her racing career and particularly impressed at Ascot last time out, where her win suggest she has more to offer. She is a best price 6/4 with Paddy Power to win the 4:20 and is well worth a bet.

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Posted 9 years, 9 months ago

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