Duty to pay her way in the Falmouth – Wednesday’s Tips

There’s huge excitement here in Newmarket about the eight filles and mares who line up in today’s Group 1 Etihad Airways Falmouth Stakes, live on C4 at 3.10pm.

A clash of the generations pits Aidan O’Brien’s hugely impressive Royal Ascot winner Lillie Langtry against dual Guineas victor Special Duty and serial scorer Strawberrydaiquiri. Chuck in Canadian Grade 1 winner Lahaleeb running back against her own sex, classy Spacious, improving Rainfall, consistent Music Show and a live danger from Jim Bolger’s stable in Gile Na Greine and you have the components to serve up a race to savour. Here’s hoping.

The favourite’s price is based on the evidence of her most recent run, and although Lillie Langtry may show just as much again here as she did at Ascot (when admittedly she put on a mighty display to run to the very top of her form), don’t forget she couldn’t take the Irish Guineas in a bunch finish on her previous outing, eventually finding herself fifth beaten three quarters of a length. At 9/4 my gut feeling is she’s skinny enough against this red hot opposition.

Connections point out her Curragh run was her first back from a break and she was only just ready to start out, but then you’ll never hear a negative comment about one from Ballydoyle, and although she may well have come on significantly I’m keen to take her on with this quality line up.

Chief amongst that opposition is experienced older mare Strawberrydaiquiri, who just keeps on winning.

Gutsy to the end she most recently got the better of Spacious as the pair came clear in a cracker in the Group 2 Windsor Forest at Royal Ascot, and there’s so much to admire about her up for a scrap attitude to her racing.

One precursor to her chances may be that her one defeat in seven came on her only try in a Group 1 – this could turn out to be a shade too hot today.

My impression anyway though is that she may struggle to concede the weight for age allowance to one of the younger horses in the shape of French super filly Special Duty, who has flown the flag for Criquette Head’s team in such fine fashion over the last 12 months.

The winner of Newmarket’s Cheveley Park last Autumn her trainer had no problem pitching her in alongside the colts as a baby, and with good reason.

She’ll love Newmarket’s faster ground today, and although she has a new pilot in she shape of Tom Queally after injury to Stephane Pasquier and Christophe Lemaire, she must hold a leading chance.

She missed the Coronation intentionally and has had a nice break, and although she hasn’t passed the post first on either of her Guineas wins (both were awarded in the stewards’ room after interference) she can put that right here.

I chuckled when Stan James put out a press release yesterday offering 100/1 about her winning a third straight Group 1 in the stewards’ room.

Don’t be put off by her defeat in the Prix Imprudence on her reappearance in April either – that was on very testing ground and she needed the spin by all accounts, plus the filly that beat her (Joanna) came out and won a hot race at Lonhgchamp over the weekend.

Make no mistake this is a really tough filly and she can take this at 7/2 with any of William Hill, Victor Chandler or Stan James.

A little earlier on the card the two year old filles do battle in the Cherry Hinton, and I’m keen to burgle some of the 15/2 each way about Jim Bolger’s exciting sort Radharcnafarraige.

Sent off favourite for the Albany at Royal Ascot she has three lengths to make up on Richard Hannon’s unbeaten Memory from that race, but punters seem to be hasty in dismissing her Group 3 win at Naas prior to that.

Fair enough you can’t compile a cast iron argument about why she should reverse that form, but these are babies with very little experience, and Radharcnafarraige has had more runs than any of them.

On a different track on a different day there’s no way I’m going to desert her when Memory is a daft price at 8/11, meaning we can work with an inflated 15/2 each way with either Coral or SkyBet.

Granted there are only seven runners, but I think she might win and you’ll still bank a profit if she finishes second to Memory.

Regular readers will no doubt have been distressed by the lack of recent mentions for Lord Culcheth since his chequered week at Royal Ascot, but fear not as he’s come out of hiding and is heading for Worcester tonight where I think he can make a profit by following Monday’s Newton Abbot scorer Sir Bumble in the Handicap Chase at 7.10pm.

It wasn’t much of a race he won at the Devon track, but this isn’t exactly a contest bursting with strength in depth either, and connections are keen to exploit his current mark of 79 before the handicapper has his chance to give him a few pounds by way of congratulation.

Good luck!

Wednesday’s best bets:

2.35 Newmarket – Irish Thoroughbred Marketing Cherry Hinton Stakes – 4 Radharcnafarraige (each way) @ 15/2 (Coral or SkyBet)

3.10 Newmarket – Etihad Airways Falmouth Stakes – 8 Special Duty (win) @ 7/2 (William Hill, Victor Chandler or Stan James)

7.10 Worcester – PP Business Improvements Handicap Chase – 7 Sir Bumble (win) @ 4/1 with SkyBet.