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Saturday’s York tips‏

tomlee — Fri, 23 Jul 2010 20:33:36 +0000

Saturday marks the beginning of a busy spell for racing fans and professionals alike, with a number of quality cards to choose from on King George day, before the shows rolls on to Goodwood and Galway next week.

With the BBC doing the honours at Ascot the C4 team are on duty at York and Newmarket, with both looking competitive throughout.

It’ll be a relief to be back on a racecourse after my recent holiday was savagely interrupted by the not 100% unexpected arrival of column regular Lord Culcheth, who turned up just in time for the Grand Prix de Paris at Longchamp, insisting Jan Vermeer was a good thing (finished third beaten 6 lengths) clutching a bright orange lilo bed and a pair of books entitled ‘How To Catch A Cougar’ and ‘How To Feed Your Cougar’.

Oblivious to the fact he might not be altogether welcome, he then ingratiated himself with the up ’til that moment relaxed holiday party still further by deadlocking us out of our house for 24 hours, conveniently picking Bastille Day when every locksmith for 1,000 miles is otherwise occupied.

Another Lord Culcheth triumph.

Speaking of which, if you ever bump into John Francome on your travels, ask him about the infamous popcorn trick……..Lord Culcheth tried it at an open air screening of Harry Potter in Cannes last year, and was subsequently nearly beaten to death for his troubles.

York’s card looks especially tricky, but fortune/bankruptcy favours the brave, so since that’s where I’ll be that’s where I’m focussing my efforts on unravelling a winner or two:

We’ll need a bit of luck in-running with a field of 20 lining up for an exciting renewal of the Sky Bet Dash at 3.40pm, but I’ll be splitting my stakes on two that appeal to me for differing reasons.

Former course and distance winner Valery Borzov is exactly the type of animal I like to back in a race of this nature.

Dropping in the weights he now races from a 3lb lower mark than his last winning rating of 97 (when he scored at York in May 2009), and if you consider this streetwise gelding was rated 105 a year ago, he must have a chance from nearly a stone lower on a track where we know he acts (although many don’t!).

Richard Fahey has his string in good nick, Paul Hanagan is riding out of his skin, the horse has a visor on again in a bid to eke out a little more than has been witnessed lately, and he hails from a stable who’ve won this contest twice in the last four years.

At a double figure price I like the idea of an each way punt.

The other one I like in the race is the polar opposite in many ways – where Valery Borzov has been out of sorts the same cannot be said of Mark Johnston’s Lowdown, who’s slap bang in form and fast rising up the handicap after two wins on the bounce.

He has bags of speed, will handle the quick ground, and may not have finished improving.

What also encourages me to back Lowdown is his draw in stall three – Friday’s evening card saw the six furlong handicap first, second and third jump from gates three, five and one respectively which could be a handy pointer.

As with my other selection in the race I’ll be backing Lowdown each way.

Bookmakers will be licking their lips as they price up the most valuable race on the card, the Group 2 Sky Bet York Stakes at 3.05pm.

You’d struggle to rule any of the eight runners out with confidence, as even 20/1 outsider of the field Nanton (the mount of Morning Line guest Phillip Makin) could take a hand and collect some prize money.

I think the layers have got it right in making Debussy favourite though – word is he’s flying at home, and will find this a huge amount easier than last time when John Gosden pitched him in against the big boys in the Group 1 Prince Of Wales’s Stakes at Royal Ascot.

Prior to that effort he hacked up at a big price at the Chester May meeting, and can return to winning ways here.

There is definite quality in opposition, but I’d be worried about the ground for Bushman unless some rain arrives, while Monitor Closely makes his first outing for ‘Ding Dong’ Michael Bell, but surely will come on for the run after suffering from knee problems and not being seen for 315 days.

It’s a win bet on Debussy for me at a generally available 4/1.

The day kicks off at York with a very hot nursery (two year old handicap) at 2.00pm, in which I’ve got an inkling we might be about to see a bit more from Face The Problem as this Johannesburg colt tackles the minimum distance for the first time.

He began his education with a debut fourth on a left handed galloping track in May (at Newbury), and then won at Windsor showing dazzling early pace, but he nearly chucked it away by hanging badly when put under pressure late on (over 6f).

Dropped in trip I think he can show them a clean pair of heels here as he learns his job.

The Hills team clearly think plenty of him as he holds a Gimcrack entry - back him to win at 3/1 with Paddy Power.

There’ll be no sneaking out early if you want to try and back a winner of the lucky last, but I’ll be asking Phillip Makin if he thinks Legal Legacy might be his best chance of the day in a tough looking big field seven furlong handicap.

Michael Dods’ four year old racked up a hat trick just over a year ago, and inevitably had to serve his time when the inevitable sentence was handed down by the handicapper.

Now though, back on faster ground and only a solitary pound higher than his last winning mark of 72, I reckon we might see his best effort since the end of June 2009.

At a double figure price he’ll be an each way bet.

Good luck!

Saturday’s York tips:

2.00 – skypoker.com Stakes – 5 Face The Problem (win) @ 3/1 (Paddy Power)

3.05 – Sky Bet York Stakes – 4 Debussy (win) @ 4/1 (general, including Bet365 & Ladbrokes)

3.40 – Sky Bet Dash (Handicap) – 7 Lowdown (each way) @ 9/1 (Ladbrokes or William Hill) (n.b. 8/1 with Sky Bet who offer 5 places)

3.40 – Sky Bet Dash (Handicap) – 12 Valery Borzov (each way) @ 10/1 (Bet365 or Paddy Power) (n.b. 9/1 with Sky Bet)

5.20 – skybingo.com Stakes (Handicap) – 10 Legal Legacy (each way)

The ‘Moore’ the merrier for this Weekend’s Racing Tips

tomlee — Sat, 17 Jul 2010 00:14:29 +0000

With Tom away on holiday, he has left this weekend’s column in the trusty hands of Betting Directory’s very own tipsters, who, on the past two occasions of standing in for him have shown a profit. Here’s hoping to a hat trick of winning tips to continue the column’s good run of form of late ahead of Tom taking over the reigns again for what promises to be a cracking week of Racing starting next Saturday with the King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes at Ascot followed by the Galway Festival and Glorious Goodwood which get underway a few days later.

Whilst Tom and Lord Cultech slap on the Ambre Solaire aboard their Sun Seeker on the French Riviera, the Bull Dog editor has to settle for a visit to the Burnley branch of ‘Tan-Tastic’ amidst trying to find a few winners for the ever growing followers of this column.

Newbury’s live Channel 4 card on Saturday looks as good a place as any to start to try and get amongst the winners. The feature race at the Berkshire track is the 3:20, Weatherbys Super Sprint, a race exclusively for two year olds. Finding the winner of any juvenile event is always a tough assignment and the Super Sprint is no different, especially given that all of the 25 declared runners entered for Saturday’s renewal are entitled to further improvement. However, it may pay to side with Richard Hannon, a trainer who has dominated this race down the years and whose two year olds have been in nothing short of exceptional form this season.

Hannon has accounted for seven of the 18 winners of this race since it was first run in 1991 and so far in 2010, he boasts a 28% strike with his two year olds and a quid on them all would have seen you £47 in profit! Five entries in the Super Sprint suggest that the Marlborough based trainer has every intention of adding to that tally and judging by the booking of Champion Jockey Ryan Moore, Reckless Reward looks to be the stable’s best hope and at 5/1 with William Hill looks a solid bet.

His second last time out behind Approve in the Norfolk Stakes at Royal Ascot gives Recklees Reward the best piece of form of any of the other runners in the race by some distance and a repeat of that effort should be enough to see this son of former top classs sprinter, Choisir, take all the beating.

Earlier in the day at Newbury, the Group Three Shadwell Stakes at 2:15 should present the perfect opportunity for a horse Tom tipped up in the Golden Jubilee Stakes a few weeks ago, High Standing, to make a return to winning ways. Eased right down when beaten at Ascot, this Willie Haggas trained five year old had been putting in consistently good efforts in Group company prior to that occasion and there is no reason why he shouldn’t bounce back to that level of form in the exact same race he won 12 months ago. The biggest danger comes from the Henry Candy trained Markab who put in a great effort to finish second to Equiano over 5f in the King’s Stand Stakes last time out, however, this seven year does have something to find on form with High Standing over today’s extended trip. What’s more Ryan Moore is doing the steering on the selection and the fact that he’s finished first on four of the five occasions he’s ridden the gelding only adds further reason to take advantage of the 11/4 on offer with William Hill.

Ryan Moore takes the ride on our final selection and subsequently, all three of our tips for the weekend, and that is nothing more than pure coincidence but we are not going to let this deter us from hopefully backing the winner of the Irish Oaks at the Curragh on Sunday. Moore teams up with Ed Dunlop to ride Epsom Oaks winner, Snow Fairy, in the Irish Classic and both will be hoping to join an elite group who have managed dual Oaks successes. Sunday will be the first time Snow Fairy has run since her Epsom win in June but the manner of her victory that day suggested their could be more to come from the filly and she is well worth siding with to go down in the record books alongside the likes of the great Ouija Board who managed the feat for the same trainer in 2004.

Despite a slow start to her career, which even included a run in handicap company as a two year old, Snow Fairy looks to have really improved for her two winning starts as a three year old and whilst several of Sunday’s rivals are out to reverse the Epsom form with the benefit of an additional run, it is sometimes worth sticking with proven class rather than hoping for expected improvement to bear fruition, which is our case for backing Snow Fairy ahead of any of the other fillies in this race and the 4/1 on offer with Blue Square makes plenty of appeal.

Good Luck

Weekend Tips
2:15 Newbury, Shadwell Stakes – High Standing (win) @ 11/4 with William Hill
3:30 Newbury, Weatherbys Super Sprint – Reckless Reward (win) @ 5/1 with William Hill
3:40 Curragh (Sunday) Darley Irish Oaks – Snow Fairy (win) @ 4/1 with Blue Square

Pursue the ‘Spanish’ look on Ladies’ Day – Thursday’s Newmarket tips

tomlee — Thu, 08 Jul 2010 08:29:15 +0000

The Spanish are in the ascendancy at present, but at Newmarket today it can pay to side not with Xavi and Iniesta, but with Stoute and Moore, as they team up with Spanish Moon in the feature Princess of Wales’s sportingbet.com Stakes, live on C4 at 3.10pm.

The undoubted class horse of the race Spanish Moon hasn’t been seen in this country since winning a listed race on the All Weather at Kempton in November 2008 – soon afterwards the killjoy powers that be slapped him with a parking ticket for being a shade tricky about loading in the stalls, and his connections cleverly chose to look further afield and have been mining far better prize money all over the place ever since.

His British exile has yielded all sorts of lucrative efforts elsewhere: second in the Dubai Sheema Classic, a win in the Grand Prix de Saint-Cloud, a win in Longchamp’s Prix Foy, fourth in the Breeders’ Cup Turf, second in the Hong Kong Vase and another third in the Sheema Classic last time out.

This is a horse who’s achieved lifetime earnings in excess of £1.75m – not bad for a creature who sometimes has second thoughts about being bundled into the stalls!

Joking apart the six year old goes well fresh, has had a nice break since his latest spell in Dubai, is absolutely versatile as regards ground, and hails from a stable which has won this race three times in five seasons.

He passed a stalls test at Lingfield last week, so as long as he’s on best behaviour this afternoon he can do the business for us here.

Godolphin’s Holberg is the most likely challenger according to the bookmakers’ lists, but he may not be able to live with the proven class of Spanish Moon, despite hacking up in a listed race at Goodwood on his return from injury.

Of the remainder Man Of Iron is interesting – the winner of last year’s Breeders’ Cup Marathon when trained by Aidan O’Brien, he’s now with Luca Cumani and could well make the places, although he does have to improve on his one effort this season, when third in the listed Fred Archer Stakes over course and distance less than three weeks ago.

However the 15/8 with Coral and William Hill about Spanish Moon picking up where he left off on British soil looks about right to me.

In the opening race on Ladies’ Day, the Group 3 Bahrain Trophy, it can pay to ignore the official figures and back one of the lower rated horse in the race, one making rapid progress who can make the step up in class: step forward emphatic Edinburgh Cup winner Harris Tweed for William Haggas and Liam Jones.

This will be far harder for him racing off level weights against superior animals, with Corsica benefitting from a vast pull at the weights having given up 18lb for a five length beating last time, but that doesn’t take into account the progress being made by Harris Tweed – he’s improved measurably since Musselburgh say connections, and is well worth a shot at a better race.

You can back him early doors at 3/1 with Sportingbet who are best price.

While I strongly fancy the aforementioned tips my thoughts on the TNT July Stakes at 2.00pm are purely speculative, with a very small win bet unable to do any damage:

Only five go to post in a muddling contest, with Royal Ascot winner Approve penalised for his success there, Godolphin’s Neebras obviously dangerous after going down in a scrap with Coventry winner Strong Suit at Newbury, but then returning to rout the opposition in a Goodwood maiden, and Elzaam who is odds on after failing by the narrowest of margins against Strong Suit in the Coventry at the Royal Meeting.

There’s another one I haven’t menioned though, and that’s 9/1 shot Libranno.

The idea of backing an unbeaten Richard Hannon two year old at 9′s in a five horse race is quite appealing for a small stake, and even if the bookmakers are correct and he finishes fourth of five you haven’t got to have too much on at that price.

Essentially Liranno could be anything, but I’m having an interest at the price just in case – Paddy Power are laying the 9′s.

Good luck!

Thursday’s Newmarket tips:

1.30 – Bahrain Trophy – 3 Harris Tweed (win) @ 3/1 (Sportingbet)

2.00 – TNT July Stakes – 3 Libranno (win) @ 9/1 (Paddy Power)

3.10 – Princess of Wales’s sportingbet.com Stakes – 7 Spanish Moon (win) @ 15/8 (Coral and William Hill)

Duty to pay her way in the Falmouth – Wednesday’s Tips

tomlee — Wed, 07 Jul 2010 08:42:49 +0000

There’s huge excitement here in Newmarket about the eight filles and mares who line up in today’s Group 1 Etihad Airways Falmouth Stakes, live on C4 at 3.10pm.

A clash of the generations pits Aidan O’Brien’s hugely impressive Royal Ascot winner Lillie Langtry against dual Guineas victor Special Duty and serial scorer Strawberrydaiquiri. Chuck in Canadian Grade 1 winner Lahaleeb running back against her own sex, classy Spacious, improving Rainfall, consistent Music Show and a live danger from Jim Bolger’s stable in Gile Na Greine and you have the components to serve up a race to savour. Here’s hoping.

The favourite’s price is based on the evidence of her most recent run, and although Lillie Langtry may show just as much again here as she did at Ascot (when admittedly she put on a mighty display to run to the very top of her form), don’t forget she couldn’t take the Irish Guineas in a bunch finish on her previous outing, eventually finding herself fifth beaten three quarters of a length. At 9/4 my gut feeling is she’s skinny enough against this red hot opposition.

Connections point out her Curragh run was her first back from a break and she was only just ready to start out, but then you’ll never hear a negative comment about one from Ballydoyle, and although she may well have come on significantly I’m keen to take her on with this quality line up.

Chief amongst that opposition is experienced older mare Strawberrydaiquiri, who just keeps on winning.

Gutsy to the end she most recently got the better of Spacious as the pair came clear in a cracker in the Group 2 Windsor Forest at Royal Ascot, and there’s so much to admire about her up for a scrap attitude to her racing.

One precursor to her chances may be that her one defeat in seven came on her only try in a Group 1 – this could turn out to be a shade too hot today.

My impression anyway though is that she may struggle to concede the weight for age allowance to one of the younger horses in the shape of French super filly Special Duty, who has flown the flag for Criquette Head’s team in such fine fashion over the last 12 months.

The winner of Newmarket’s Cheveley Park last Autumn her trainer had no problem pitching her in alongside the colts as a baby, and with good reason.

She’ll love Newmarket’s faster ground today, and although she has a new pilot in she shape of Tom Queally after injury to Stephane Pasquier and Christophe Lemaire, she must hold a leading chance.

She missed the Coronation intentionally and has had a nice break, and although she hasn’t passed the post first on either of her Guineas wins (both were awarded in the stewards’ room after interference) she can put that right here.

I chuckled when Stan James put out a press release yesterday offering 100/1 about her winning a third straight Group 1 in the stewards’ room.

Don’t be put off by her defeat in the Prix Imprudence on her reappearance in April either – that was on very testing ground and she needed the spin by all accounts, plus the filly that beat her (Joanna) came out and won a hot race at Lonhgchamp over the weekend.

Make no mistake this is a really tough filly and she can take this at 7/2 with any of William Hill, Victor Chandler or Stan James.

A little earlier on the card the two year old filles do battle in the Cherry Hinton, and I’m keen to burgle some of the 15/2 each way about Jim Bolger’s exciting sort Radharcnafarraige.

Sent off favourite for the Albany at Royal Ascot she has three lengths to make up on Richard Hannon’s unbeaten Memory from that race, but punters seem to be hasty in dismissing her Group 3 win at Naas prior to that.

Fair enough you can’t compile a cast iron argument about why she should reverse that form, but these are babies with very little experience, and Radharcnafarraige has had more runs than any of them.

On a different track on a different day there’s no way I’m going to desert her when Memory is a daft price at 8/11, meaning we can work with an inflated 15/2 each way with either Coral or SkyBet.

Granted there are only seven runners, but I think she might win and you’ll still bank a profit if she finishes second to Memory.

Regular readers will no doubt have been distressed by the lack of recent mentions for Lord Culcheth since his chequered week at Royal Ascot, but fear not as he’s come out of hiding and is heading for Worcester tonight where I think he can make a profit by following Monday’s Newton Abbot scorer Sir Bumble in the Handicap Chase at 7.10pm.

It wasn’t much of a race he won at the Devon track, but this isn’t exactly a contest bursting with strength in depth either, and connections are keen to exploit his current mark of 79 before the handicapper has his chance to give him a few pounds by way of congratulation.

Good luck!

Wednesday’s best bets:

2.35 Newmarket – Irish Thoroughbred Marketing Cherry Hinton Stakes – 4 Radharcnafarraige (each way) @ 15/2 (Coral or SkyBet)

3.10 Newmarket – Etihad Airways Falmouth Stakes – 8 Special Duty (win) @ 7/2 (William Hill, Victor Chandler or Stan James)

7.10 Worcester – PP Business Improvements Handicap Chase – 7 Sir Bumble (win) @ 4/1 with SkyBet.

Follow the Rainbow for a Royal Ascot winner on Friday

tomlee — Fri, 18 Jun 2010 01:09:45 +0000

The Michael Jarvis team are understandably keen on the chances of their Rainbow Peak as he lines up in the Wolferton Handicap at 4.25pm on Friday, live on BBC2.

Ideally drawn in stall 16 of 16 he looks set to go off a hot favourite, and can send punters home smiling on day four of this brilliant Royal Meeting.

This race has been the plan ever since he made a very encouraging return to action as a four year old, when narrowly going down to Fareer in York’s Hambleton Handicap over a mile during Dante week.

Despite having no luck with the draw he still ran a corker there, and to my eyes the step back up in trip to 1m 2f is exactly what’s required to return him to winning ways.

Latest Royal Ascot Odds

Although he never made the track at the age of two his three year old campaign was executed with skill by his likeable trainer, placed to good effect to win his first three starts. He went into the York race off a mark of 103, and there could be plenty more to come here off 107.

Neil Callan can steer him home at a generally available price of 9/4.

Some gorgeous fillies line up in the Group 3 Albany Stakes at 2.30pm, none more so than commentator’s nightmare Radharcnafarraige for Jim Bolger and Kevin Manning.

Bolger won this race in 2008 with Cuis Ghaire, and was quick to pinpoint the Albany as the target after this filly put up an excellent performance to land the Group 3 Coolmore Stud Fillies’ Stakes at Naas on June 7th.

Interestingly Cuis Ghaire won that very same race en route to Albany glory, and in Radharcnafarraige they’ve got another filly of great potential.

They won’t have been too disappointed to see her drawn in 6, and the quickening ground will hold no fears whatsoever after she fairly zipped off a fast surface at Naas.

I’ll be having a look edach way at the 11/2 available with Bet365 and Stan James, although it can pay to shop around and find those firms paying an extra place (Totesport, Blue Square and SkyBet at the time of writing).

Since he’s having such a strenuous week it’d be remiss not to sign off with a brief word about the latest Lord Culcheth news.

Beaming from ear to ear he spent a couple of hours on Thursday afternoon explaining in detail to anyone in earshot how he was going to spend a chunk of his Afsare winnings from the Hampton Court Stakes on a Gerald Delamere tattoo.

For those of you not familiar with Gerald he’s a much respected Racing Post pundit who made an excellent case in the paper for Afsare to land the 5.00, a race he duly delivered despite a minor sweat due to a stewards’ enquiry.

Delighted by what he’d read Culcheth has decided to commemorate the source of one of his biggest ever wins as a gambler by building a shrine to Gerald. Exactly what part of his anatomy the noble Lord plans to decorate with this decadent piece of art, detailing the grinning, bespectacled veteran Irish tipster is anyone’s guess.

Good luck!

Friday’s best bets at Royal Ascot:

2.30 – Albany Stakes – 19 Radharcnafarraige (each way) @ 11/2 (Bet365 or Stan James)

4.25 – Wolferton Handicap – 6 Rainbow Peak (win) @ 9/4 (general – Wolferton Handicap Odds)

If you Ask me we’ve found the Gold Cup winner – Thursday’s Royal Ascot tips

tomlee — Thu, 17 Jun 2010 00:43:46 +0000

Only an incredible burst of acceleration from Godolphin’s Invisible Man stood between readers and a bumper payout in the Royal Hunt Cup on Wednesday afternoon, but despite having to settle for second and fourth there courtesy of Riggins and Tryst it’s a been a promising (and profitable) week thus far.

Standing Royal Meeting dish Lord Culcheth was the only man in Berkshire who’d lumped on Riggins at 16′s with Coral and was still visibly relieved when he had to settle for second place – ever the showman and always a bastion of modesty he’d somehow convinced a group of enthusiastic and highly tanked up racegoers that he’d be more than happy to have his driver take them all to an excellent local fish restaurant for dinner, on his tab, in his Rolls Royce, which supposedly was parked up ready and waiting in car park 3, if his selection prevailed.

Surrounded by the eager crowd and unable to escape the great man was desperately trying to appear nonchalant as Riggins made for home under a confident looking Jimmy Fortune, as his growing army of fans began to raise the roof.

Unfortunately he’d omitted to mention a couple of technical difficulties with this developing situation.

Firstly, his chosen mode of transport on Wednesday was actually a taxi from the Travelodge in Slough where he was actually staying for £19 a night, and secondly he’s now persona non grata at said restaurant after turning up there blotto on Tuesday evening after enjoying a round a golf, falling over and refusing to get up when attempting to find his table, then shortly afterwards raising his standing still further by falling fast asleep in the gents’ between courses.

Hopefully he’ll soon be incarcerated and will be able to do no further damage.

Thursday’s Royal Ascot Odds

Anway, back to business. The big race on Thursday is a cracker with the first Ascot Gold Cup (3.50pm live on BBC2) of the post-Yeats era promising to be a thriller.

Stamina dounts cast aside my idea of a winner has to be Sir Micahel Stoute’s Ask – the undoubted class horse in the race, he can thrive on a track where he’s performed with distinction in the past (winner of a Cumberland Lodge and third in a King George) and where Ryan Moore should be able to finesse him home over this marathon distance.

In a race chocker with potential winners he certainly strikes me as having the edge in terms of raw ability, and I’m keen to take what looks a generous standout price of 6/1 with Stoke firm Bet365.

Anyone suggesting Ask hasn’t a prayer of staying the trip would do well to have another look at his win in Longchamp’s Prix Royal-Oak over a whisker shy of two miles on his last appearance back in October.

That was on soft ground and he certainly wasn’t stopping, and since he’s proven after a break (won on his first run of the season in 2007, 2008 & 2009) I’m loathe to desert him here.

What’s more he’s an easy ride, he just lobs along and has a pilot in the form of his life who’d probably be confident of coaxing the yard cat into staying two a half miles the way he’s riding at present.

Also, even favourite Manifest still has to prove that he’ll handle the step up further in trip despite his demolition job in the Yorkshire Cup, and when you stop to consider Ask won the same race a year earlier in equally devastating fashion, before netting Group 1′s at Epsom and Longchamp – he looks the one to be on.

Some commentators are suggesting the ground could be the undoing of Ask, but the ground on Thursday is likely to be broadly similar to that encountered in last summer’s King George, plus he has form on quicker surface a couple of seasons back.

Age Of Aquarius and Kite Wood appeal as obvious dangers to ruin the party, but Ask could turn out to be head and shoulders above these and I’m backing him to win.

A couple of others to look out for on a terrific third day – the opening Norfolk Stakes over the flying five furlongs can go to Richards Hannon and Hughes with Invincible Spirit colt Zebedee.

No strangers to two year old winners the Hannon team will have been delighted with their horse’s draw in stall 11, and although he needs to improve on the bare form of what he’s done so far, he is unbeaten, and has a course and distance win under his belt.

My feeling is there could well be a lot more to come. Bet365 is again the place to shop for a slice of their industry best 5/1.

A more speculative selection comes in the Britannia Stakes at 4.25pm where John Gosden’s Kona Coast jumps from stall 25.

His form was pretty miserable prior to his excellent third at Newmarket on Guineas Saturday (Balducci finished second and went on to win the Silver Bowl at Haydock), but he’s been working pleasingly with Showcasing and might be the type to thrive in this big field under a low weight, especially since the handicapper left him on 86 after that run.

He’s drawn on the right side of the track and is as big as 20/1 with a couple of the firms, although I’m sacrificing a couple of points to back him each way at 18′s with Bet365 or Paddy Power, both of whom are paying 1/4 odds 1-2-3-4-5.

Good luck!

Thursday’s best bets at Royal Ascot:

2.30 – Norfolk Stakes – 12 Zebedee (each way) @ 5/1 (Bet365)

3.50 – Gold Cup – 1 Ask (win) @ 6/1 (Bet365)

4.25 – Britannia Stakes (H’cap) – 20 Kona Coast (each way) @ 18/1 (Bet365 or Paddy Power)

Goldi a ‘nap’ bet as she locks horns with Colts – Tuesday’s Royal Ascot Tips

tomlee — Tue, 15 Jun 2010 07:11:17 +0000

The times have worked out kindly and you won’t have to peel your self away from New Zealand v Slovakia for a single moment to savour the fantastic race which lies in store at 2.30pm on Tuesday as Paco Boy, Rip Van Winkle and Goldikova get it on in the opening race of Royal Ascot, the Queen Anne Stakes over a mile.

It’s got the makings of a truly brilliant contest.

Concerns about the fitness of classy RVW mean he relucatantly has to be passed over on this occasion, meaning it’s a choice between the front two in the market.

Although her chief market rival won a Group 1 last time it was against lesser opposition, and so the vote has to go to Goldikova - the French trained star receives a fillies’ allowance and even without it looks nigh on unbeatable over a mile.

Her dual Breeders’ Cup Mile victories plus a recent display of health in the Group 1 Prix D’Ispahan at Longchamp do nothing to dampen enthusiasm.

If there’s one quibble it’s that she can be a bit of a madame when going in to the stalls, but that’s not insurmountable and certainly not sufficiently concerning to avoid having a bet.

Paco Boy has looked a star in recording back to back victories in Sandown’s bet365 Mile and the Lockinge so far this term, but he’s yet to bump into an opponent of this calibre and he may have to settle for minor honours here.

Back Goldikova to win at 7/4 with Ladbrokes.

Next up in the King’s Stand Stakes at 3.05pm there’ve been suggestions that the Australian challenge for this coveted sprit prize might not be as strong as in previous years, and Kingsgate Native (winner of the Temple Stakes) for Sir Michael Stoute and Ryan Moore looks a formidable barrier to breach for the visitors.

I’m not so sure the negative vibes about the Aussies are right though, as they’ve got a very fast horse lining up in the shape of Gary Portelli’s Gold Trail - fourth in the International Sprint at Kranji last time, this is a lightning quick animal who might just nick this race from the front.

He has a bit to find on official figures and the 16′s you could’ve taken last week is long gone, but a couple of quid each way at 9/1 with Paddy Power or William Hill could well pay dividends.

If you love your sport then Tuesday is a truly great day to be armed with a plasma screen, a bottle opener and a laptop, as the bet of the day in the football kicks off at 3pm with Ivory Coast v Portugal.

The likely absence of Didier Drogba may have lead to an overreaction from bookmakers and therefore some decent prices about his side getting their World Cup campaign off to a good start.

Drogba may yet start with a protective cast on his broken arm (permission is being sought from FIFA), but either way his impressive colleagues may well have enough up their collective sleeve to contain the Portuguese.

Portugal certainly won’t lack for support in South Africa with a massive ex-pat population based there, but the African sides are also desperate to do well in ‘their’ tournament, and a draw is easy to envisage with so many sides keener to avoid defeat than to go gung ho for the win in the opening round of fixtures.

As with Friday’s successful oppositon to South Africa and France I’m a layer of Portugal at 11/8 on Betfair.

Good luck!

Tuesday’s best bets:

2.30 Royal Ascot – Queen Anne Stakes – 10 Goldikova (win) @ 7/4 (Ladbrokes)

3.05 Royal Ascot – King’s Stand Stakes – 5 Gold Trail (each way) @ 9/1 (Paddy Power or William Hill)

Lay Portugal v Ivory Coast @ 2.34 on Betfair

A lay the way to play it as the World Cup gets underway

tomlee — Fri, 11 Jun 2010 10:04:23 +0000

Mexico could well put a dampener on the hosts’ party as they take on South Africa in Johannesburg in the opening match of the 2010 World Cup later today (3pm ITV).

What concerns me though is the South Africans desperate will not to lose, and that could mean we see the Mexicans superior creativity stifled by a stout rearguard action, and for that reason I won’t be backing a Mexican victory at 13/8 (which I nonetheless rate as the most likely outcome).

Latest World Cup News, odds and scores

So often these opening matches can turn out to be a bit of a damp squib (and a bore draw), and with the Bafana Bafana likely to be well pleased with a point in front of a raucous crowd the safe way to try and kick things off is with a lay of the ‘home’ team at 2.98 on Betfair.

Mexico ought to find a way through - on paper they’re way better than the opposition, but in case it’s a shutout have the draw running for you as well and simply lay South Africa.

Scorecasts aren’t normally something that appeal to me, but I’ve had a cheeky throw away fiver on prolific Mexico frontman Javier ‘Chicharito’ Hernandez to score first in a 1-1 draw at huge odds (40/1 with Bet365).

In the mouthwatering second game of the day I’ll be hitting the lay button once again as France take on an exciting looking Uruguay outfit.

The French have become such a big price some punters have begun backing them on the outright markets, but I’m happy to continue to oppose les Bleus, who may well prove to be exposed at the back in the face of some rapier speed attacks this evening.

Uruguay were excellent value at 100/30 for this match when the firms priced up initially, and although you can only generally take 11/4 now the money has arrived for them, they may well have what it takes to write tomorrow’s headlines.

This being the opening day though they too may have to settle for a point, and with that in mind I’m laying Raymond Domenech’s French outfit at 2.28 on the machines.

It’s going to be a fantastic month!

Good luck!

Friday’s Group A bets:

Lay South Africa v Mexico @ 2.98 on Betfair

Lay France v Uurguay @ 2.26 on Betfair

Bring the Midas Touch to Derby Day – Saturday’s Tips

tomlee — Sat, 05 Jun 2010 05:00:22 +0000

I think it’s fair to say we’re all looking forward to what looks a fascinating renewal of the Epsom Derby (live on BBC1 4.00pm Saturday), even with the predictable defection of leading Ballydoyle hopes St Nicholas Abbey and Cape Blanco.

Aidan O’Brien’s team still have two clear chances to land the big one though, with heavily backed favourite Jan Vermeer all the rage after putting on an exciting display in the Curragh’s Group 3 Gallimule Stakes less than a fortnight ago, and Derrinstown winner Midas Touch also prominent in the betting after an assured display in his trial race at Leopardstown, as
well as pacemaker At First Sight.

Epsom Derby Racecard and Odds for all Runners

Johnny Murtagh has plumped for the favourite, but despite the fact Midas Touch has a bit of ground to make up on his stablemate on their running in the Criterium International at Saint-Cloud in November (and on their September meeting at Gowran Park) it’s a decision he may live to regret.

Both have plenty to recommend them, but at three times the price of his travelling companion I’ve got to be with Midas Touch.

He looked potentially outstanding at Leopardstown, like a colt coming to the boil at exactly the right time, in doing so he earned a very good speed rating in the race which both of Aidan O’Brien’s Epsom Derby winners (Galileo and High Chaparral) won on their way to classic glory.

Lest we forget this is a beautifully bred young horse, by a brilliant Derby winner (Galileo) who has already produced a Derby winner himself (New Approach), out of a Darshaan mare who has stacks of stamina in her pedigree. Unsurprisingly then the further Midas Touch has gone the better he’s looked.

Jan Vermeer on the other hand had a delayed start to this campaign, and then although visually impressive he only won a weak trial race – on the strength of that and the mouthwatering alternatives available I’d certainly be more comfortable having some 13/2 Midas Touch.

For sure this isn’t just the Aidan O’Brien show though, with money arriving in recent days for Sir Michael Stoute’s Workforce, second in the Dante to Cape Blanco after a runaway maiden win at Goodwood.

Plenty of good judges are sweet on this fella, but I’m a bit peturbed by O’Brien re-routing Cape Blanco to France – does that suggest he thinks his confirmed Derby horses would have the beating of Cape Blanco and therefore Workforce?

It’s all conjecture, but with only two runs under his belt perhaps 5/1 is a skinny enough reflection of his chances.

Then there’s Godolphin’s leading hope Rewilding – what a story that would be if their new trainer the very capable Mahmood Al Zarooni could land the Derby weeks into his first British season.

There’s a buzz around this horse with Frankie on board and they’ve stumped up the cash to supplement him, but although he ran away with a listed race at Goodwood on his British debut he would need to improve again and significantly so to play a part here.

One I do respect greatly is Lingfield Trial winner Bullet Train for Henry Cecil. He handled the camber at Lingfield really well and showed a good temperament when winning comfortably that day. By Saddler’s Wells he could well make the frame.

In retrospect only two trials I’ve watched where I thought we really could have seen a Derby winner today were the Derrinstown and Lingfield Trial, and of the two it’s the Leopardstown win for Midas Touch which fired my imagination.

He can make it Derby #3 for Aidan O’Brien in the hands of Colm O’Donoghue. Back him each way at 13/2 with any of Bet365, Skybet or Sportingbet.

Captain Dunne is also worth following in the Dash at 3.15pm.

He was only collared close home by Indian Trail (who re-opposes) 12 months ago, but connections are confident of another bold showing and he can play a hand in the finish.

Back him each way.

Good luck!

Saturday’s best bets at Epsom:

3.15 – Investec Entrepreneurial Class Dash (Handicap) – 3 Captain Dunne (each way) @ 7/1 with Bet365.
4.00 - Investec Derby – 9 Midas Touch (each way) Bet365, Skybet or Sportingbet.

Fame and Glory a nap bet at Epsom on Friday

tomlee — Fri, 04 Jun 2010 06:17:33 +0000

Aidan O’Brien has enjoyed a virtual monopoly on the Coronation Cup in recent seasons, winning it in 2005, 2007 and 2008, and to my eyes it’s hard to look far beyond his 2009 Irish Derby winner Fame And Glory for the 2010 renewal (2.45pm Epsom, Friday).

It’s a quality field of 10 that is scheduled to go to post for the £127,000 first prize, but although old Youmzain has run in 19 straight Group 1′s he hasn’t won for a couple of years (not since his win in the Grand Prix de Saint-Cloud on June 29th 2008 to be precise), while Sariska rates the main danger given she was a course and distance winner of the Oaks last year, and looked in rude health at York against her own sex in the Middelton.

2010 Epsom Derby Odds & Racecard

Sariska does get the fillies’ allowance but that still leaves her with a bit to do if you interpret the figures literally (her mark is 118).

I also respect Cavalryman on his first start in this country now he’s back from duty in Dubai, but he may have to settle for monor honours.

Fame And Glory got beaten on bad ground on his seasonal reappearance, but then bounced back to take the Group 3 Mooresbridge Stakes at the Curragh with ease.

All the old pomp and swagger was back when he slaughtered them in the Group 1 Tattersalls Gold Cup on May 23rd, I was worried about the quicker ground that day but he took it in his stride, and decent ground at Epsom will be perfect.

Don’t forget if it wasn’t for Sea The Stars we’d be talking about a dual Derby winner with this fella, and he has valuable course and distance experience of Epsom’s nuances and undulations.

A reproduction of his latest run will make him very tough to beat here in the hands of Johnny Murtagh. The 6/5 with Boylesports looks about spot on.

Earlier on the card the opening race of this unique meeting is a belter, with the Diomed a race to savour rather than have a bet.

I’m tempted to back several of them, but with various improvers in the field plus class act The Cheka capable of anything I’d rather keep my powder dry.

In the Investec Challenge Handicap over 1m 2f at 3.25pm Michael Dods’ Thin Red Line can take advantage of a cracking draw in gate 3 in the hands of Philip Makin.

Kings Destiny has to be the danger from stall 1, but although he hosed up at Lingfield at the end of April the form of that race hasn’t worked out, and I’m wondering if the handicapper might have over reacted with a rise of 7lbs to a mark of 107.

That means he’s got to try and and concede 12lbs to an in form rival who’s on a sharp upward curve and chasing a hat-trick.

At around 6/1 Thin Red Line strikes me as a better option.

We haven’t even mentioned the Oaks yet, so let’s redress that situation: the one to be on Marcus Tregoning’s Rahy filly Rumoush.

She should just about stay, and would be clear favourite if she came here straight from her prep race in the Feilden Stakes at Newmarket when she put her race to bed in no nonsense fashion.

The reason she isn’t is her seventh in the Guineas when she didn’t stand a chance from a poor draw (still managed to finish second of her group), on a day when the rain softened ground also wouldn’t have helped.

I’ve been just down the road from Epsom all day and the sun has been beating down – much better!

Fate has been kinder with the draw as well, she’s got a perfect berth in stall 2 and as a consequence I’m backing her to win at 6′s with either Boylesports or Bet365.

They put the finishing touches to Oaks day with a really tight handicap at 5.25pm over seven furlongs, and if you’ve got a few quid to play up don’t be overly surprised if Mark Johnston is the one leaving with a smile on his face if Al Farahidi can successfully make all.

I loved his run behind Balducci at Haydock, and although others might be better handicapped I reckon they might struggle to reel him in – this horse has a good engine and a turn of foot that might have them panicking at the six pole. Let’s hope.

Good luck!

Friday’s best bets at Epsom:

2.45 – Investec Coronation Cup – 4 Fame And Glory (win) @ 6/5 (Boylesports)

3.25 – Investec Challenge Handicap – 5 Thin Red Line (win) @ 11/2 with Bet365

4.05 – Investec Oaks – 12 Rumoush (win) @ 6/1 (Boylesports & Bet365)

5.25 – Investec Opportunity Stakes – 3 Al Farahidi (win)@ 3/1 with Paddy Power