To any new vistitors to the site, we are delighted to bring you the opinions and previews of the 2009 Grand Nation from Channel 4 and RTE Ireland Racing presenter and betting pundit, Tom Lee.

The tapes finally go up, the crowd roar, and the charge is on for the first, a procession that leads the way to 4m 4f of nerve-shredding tension, and 40 runners hurtling towards 30 huge fences. Brilliant!

It’s here! The Betting Directory guide to the 2009 John Smith’s Grand National is finally upon us, and with a brilliant three day meeting peaking with the world’s most famous race, we’ve gone the extra mile to try and find you a winner in the big one.

Tom’s Grand National Tip Bit # 1
Only 14 horses since the war have successfully carried more than eleven stone, and if you fine those stats down to more recent times, they become all the more compelling:

Hedgehunter, an undoubtedly high class performer who went on to be placed in War Of Attriton’s Gold Cup in 2006, carried 11st 1lb to victory in 2005, but before that you have to go all the way back to Corbiere in 1983 for another example.

That’s not to say the winner won’t come from the 14 horses trying to carry the higher weights, especially since they are more compressed in the handicapper’s assessment nowadays, but it is nonetheless a powerful trend, and one which ties in with this column’s pick of the race!

Compare the best Odds for the Grand National

Tom’s Grand National Tip Bit # 2
I would urge you to avoid those carrying more than 11st 5lb – they are without success since 1977, a spell that incorporates 82 attempts!

Tom’s Grand National Tip Bit # 3
It’s a whopping 69 years since a horse aged less than eight won the race, so plenty of experience is clearly the order of the day.

It also pays to have won over an extended trip, as a look back through the history books highlights the fact that every National winner since 1970 had won at least once over a trip of 3m or more.

Tom’s Grand National Tip Bit # 4
The bookmakers tend to price it up well unfortunately – 14 of the last 18 winners were to be found in the first eight in the betting.

There are some classy performers in this year’s race, but the rough and tumble charge to the first will have plenty of them fancying an afternoon with their feet up, while the extreme stamina test of four and a half miles will takes its usual heavy toll.

It’s game on if you head out into the second circuit travelling and in one piece, but don’t forget the pitfalls that await in the opening stages of the contest: overjump at the first or the second in a rush to get into a rhythm and it’s curtains.

Then comes that giant ditch at the third – I know plenty of the jockeys have a few butterflies about this one, and if they take off too early it spells trouble as they’ll land on top, but take off too late and they won’t get high enough to clear it at all. In short it has to be measured perfectly, and there are only 27 left to negotiate!

At fence six lies the famous Becher’s Brook, an obstacle with a drop on the landing side roughly akin to the Niagara Falls. In front of the stands is the Chair, and if you throw in Valentines and the unique Canal Turn, you certainly get a flavour of what makes this great race so special.

Clerk of the Course Andrew Tulloch’s has produced perfect racing ground, so the mudlarks are at a disadvantage, here’s our rundown on the leading contenders:

Favourite My Will represents the Paul Nicholls-Ruby Walsh axis and consequently will have plenty of supporters. He is offically 8lbs ‘well in’ after an impressive fifth in this season’s Cheltenham Gold Cup when he stayed on well under Nick Scholfield to finish 24 lengths behind stablemate Kauto Star, but still has to carry 11st 4lb. Versatile regarding underfoot conditons he could be on a fair mark and has a decent chance, but isn’t necessarily best suited by a big field, and I worry his jumping could let him down.

Butler’s Cabin the pick of the McManus horses for AP McCoy, and the nine year old will hope for better luck than 12 months ago when he hit the deck at Becher’s on the second circuit. Was in sparkling form a couple of years back when he won the four miler at the Cheltenham Festival and followed up in the Irish Grand National at Fairyhouse. My concern is he may have blundered away his biggest chance of taking this 12 months ago, but he has definite place claims nonetheless.

State Of Play looks to the best chance of a Welsh success, with the nine year old representing the Glamorgan stable of trainer Even Williams. You’ll remember this horse winning the 2006 running of the Hennessy, and he did this column a favour in the Autumn when he came back to form in Wetherby’s Charlie Hall Chase. Qucker ground is definitely not an issue where State Of Play is concerned, but he’s not the scopiest of horses and isn’t guaranteed to take to these giant fences.

Parsons Legacy is one who’s attracted heavy support in recent days after finding his way onto a prominent tipping line. The Philip Hobbs trained eleven year old hasn’t been seen since a miserable effort at Cheltenham when pulled up on the Friday of the Boylesports Meeting. That said he goes really well fresh and will go well on the ground. He won at Cheltenham back in October and will be plenty of people’s idea of a winner, not least his trainer who has yet to taste National glory.

Irish handler Dessie Hughes sends over an in-form sort in Black Apalachi, and it’s easy to see why plenty of punters are talking up his chances. His win over the National fences in November’s Becher Chase was mighty impressive, and since then he warmed up for the National with a win in the Bobbyjo Chase at Fairyhouse.

There’s no doubt he’ll stay and he jumps well (although he did crash out early in last year’s contest) but the negatives are his weight of 11st 5lb (Hughes probably won’t have handicapper Phil Smith high on his Christmas card list) and undoubtedly the ground. All his best form has been achieved with plenty of give in the ground, and for that reason his is passed over.  

Mouse Morris is another Irishman who probably won’t be sporting his I love Phil Smith t-shirt on Saturday afternoon – he relies on Hear The Echo after War Of Attrition failed to make the race, but the eight year old has been slapped with a mark of 153 which translates to 11st 5lb. Sensing an opportunity with the winner of the 2008 Irish National Morris cannily tried evading the attentions of Smith by running him over hurdles through the winter - it didn’t work, Smith hitting him with a mark 21lb higher than his winning mark at Fairyhouse.

He unseated Saturday’s pilot Davy Russell in the Red Mills Chase at Gowran Park on his latest appearance, and might struggle to make an impact here.

Last year’s winner Comply Or Die has been trained specifically for this assignment, but is now more than a stone higher than his winning mark and hasn’t exactly been in sparkling form. He has to defy that awful stat with a weight of 11st 6lb, and others make more appeal.

Eleven year old Rambling Minster represents the Keith Reveley stable, and gets in with a mark of 143. That gives him a racing weight of 10st 9lb, and with the highly competent James Reveley in charge of affairs up top he must have a major chance. Don’t forget Reveley junior was the man who expertly guided the ill-fated Endless Power to victory in Aintree’s Grand Sefton Chase back in November, and this is a horse who really is in the form of his life.

Four times a winner on genuine good ground Rambling Minster has won five chases from 15 attempts, he took a competitive handicap at Cheltenham on New Year’s Day, before following up over 3m 4f in Haydock Park’s Blue Square Gold Cup on Valentine’s Day.

He gets in off the same mark here (the weights were published before the Haydock win) and clearly possess a decent reservoir of stamina. He’s a clean jumper who’s guaranteed to carry on galloping when others are dropping like flies, and has ticks in all the right boxes. Rambling Minster can take the 2009 National.

Tom Lee’s John Smith’s Grand National tip: (4.15 Aintree Saturday)

No 31. Rambling Minster (each way) at a best price of 12/1 with Paddy Power  who pay 1/4 odds 5 places.

Boylesports only offer 10/1 but are paying a fantastic 6 places for people betting each way and also offer a free £20 bet when you place just £10 on any Grand National runner.