Denman is red hot favourite for the Hennessy but I'm opposing him!
A nigh on perfect weekend of sport lies in wait for armchair punters, with two fantastic days racing at Newbury, Newcastle’s Fighting Fifth, a typically strong Hatton’s Grace card at Fairyhouse, plus a mid-table scouse derby, the pivotal top of the table Arsenal v Chelsea game and the small matter of ‘el derbi superclasico’ over in Spain.
I can just picture my great mate Lord Culcheth parked on the sofa glugging his Liebfraumilch from a pint glass, Betfair fired up on his laptop, the 42 inch stolen plasma screen belting out Sky Sports or some obscure hooky Greek satellite channel, mobile at the ready, smug grin on his face as he snuggles up to some leathery old cougar he met while prowling the coat queue or the burger van at 4am that morning, dreaming of a trip to Andalucia with the profits of his punting.
Casting that vulgar image aside time to try and solve the big puzzle of the weekend then, one that sees a mere 21 go to post for the Hennessy Cognac Gold Cup at Newbury on Saturday afternoon (2.40pm), and the big question of whether Denman is a good thing to repeat his 2007 victory or immediately opposable?
The obvious negatives are the difficulty in conceding lumps of weight to some very good horses (a better field than he beat off nearly a stone lower mark two years ago), his much publicized heart condition which god-willing he’s now clear of, the fact he ended up on the deck last time out back in April, and the fact he looked rather laboured that day.
On the best of his form it’s denitely possible, make no mistake, but on balance at a top price of 4/1 I find it hard to justify an investment despite his brave show in the Gold Cup. I expect him to put up a bold show, make the frame, and then improve for a run.
Latest Hennessy Gold Cup Odds Comparison
I’m not going to stray too far from Denman though in putting up his stablemate What A Friend at 7/1 with either Ladbrokes or Paddy Power.
This six year old Alflora gelding goes really well fresh, Nicholls finds it easy to get him fit, and I really fancy him to take this first time up on the way to a tilt at the Cheltenham Gold Cup.
Denman’s presence enables him to race with just 10st 4lbs on his back, and he strikes me as exactly the right type for this race.
A tilt at the Charlie Hall was bypassed having been antepost jolly for the Wetherby race, but don’t let that put you off. Wins at Uttoxeter, Cheltenham and Stratford against good horses last season (Carruthers and Ballyfitz, both of whom run here, were among his victims) made the right impression, and although he fluffed his lines in the RSA Chase at the Festival Nicholls was quick to defend him that day.
It was heartening that he bounced back from his Festival disappointment with a win in such emphatic fashion at Stratford to sign off, and he can pick up where he left off here.
Racing also has a strange symmetry sometimes, and with Ruby Walsh opting for the mount on Denman it leaves the door open for Sam Thomas to continue his successful association with What A Friend (Sam was on board for all three wins last campaign).
Thomas has fallen down the pecking order to such an extent that he’s ended up accepting a job as first jockey to Tom George, but you’d forgive him a wry smile if he could send a timely reminder of his undouted talent to Nicholls by taking one of the major prizes of the season for him here.
I sincerely hope he does, and when the inevitable post race questions about arrive about his fall from grace a simple shrug of the shoulders and ’such is life’ should do nicely.
You just have to wonder how What A Friend’s part owner Sir Alex Ferguson is going to pull off watching his horse and conducting a team talk at Fratton Park as Manchester United step out to play Portsmouth at 3pm!
I’ve also had a little nibble each way at the 16/1 available with Bet365 about Evan Williams’ State Of Play repeating his 2006 Hennessy win from just a 3lb higher rating of 145 (just 3lb out of the weights for this race).
The stable are in good form having captured the Charlie Hall with Deep Purple four weeks ago, and added three winners in the past fortnight to advertise their wellbeing.
Williams gave him a deliberately light campaign (just three runs) last year, winning a Charlie Hall and running a massive race to be fourth in the Grand National.
In short he stays all day, won’t mind deteriorating ground and could well make the frame at big odds on a track he’s shown he thoroughly enjoys.
Don’t forget jockey Paul Moloney has chosen to stick with State Of Play rather than ride better fancied stablemate Cappa Bleu.
Sticking with Newbury on Saturday Paul Nicholls has Big Buck’s to look forward to in the Long Distance Hurdle at 1.35pm – the overwhelming favourite for a repeat success in the World Hurdle he can get his season off to a flyer here.
To think he went off at 5/1 for last year’s Hennessy and unshipped Sam Thomas in the middle of the horrible spell which would eventually unseat him as Nicholls’ number two rider, the race prompted a change of heart with Big Buck’s and a return to the smaller obstacles, and to spectacular effect.
The price will be cramped but he’s impossible to oppose here.
Up at Newcastle the front two in the market for the Champion Hurdle clash in a mouthwatering WBX Fighting Fifth Hurdle (1.50pm), with Binocular and Solwhit locking horns over two miles at Gosforth Park, complemented by former Champion Hurdle winner Sublimity and Supreme Novices’ winner Go Native.
Nicky Henderson has taken this race twice in the last eight years (Landing Light 2001 & Punjabi ‘08) and can shade it here with a horse who’s been beaten only twice since coming to this country from France – Binocular.
Only five, he’s boosted by the record of favourites in this contest, with eight of the last ten proving successful, and this heavyweight hurdler can make a winning return here. Despite the formidable opposition the vibes from Seven Barrows are strong, so back him at evens with Totesport or Boylesports.
On Friday afternoon two other Henderson inmates are worthy of closer inspection, with Punchestowns making his chasing debut at 2.40pm.
He’s long odds on to score first time up over fences, so focus instead on his long term target of the RSA Chase at the Cheltenham Festival in March, for which he’s 7/1 with any of Coral, Ladbrokes or Victor Chandler.
That looks worth an interest as an impressive display is bound to lead to typical bookmaker over-reaction after a race which is an admittedly strong RSA trial.
In the last at Newbury on Friday don’t miss German import Bellvano as he jumps a hurdle in public for the first time in the hands of AP McCoy (3.45pm).
Cut from 28/1 to 16/1 for the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle the dual bumper winner can make light work of this assignment, and should win at 10/11 with either Victor Chandler or Sportingbet.
For anyone looking for a bit of value where football is concerned this weekend cast your eyes towards France and the Ligue 1 clash betwen the awful Paris St Germain and care free over-achievers Auxerre.
The Burgundy side’s coach Jean Fernandez has master minded a series of seven straight wins for the unfashionable outfit who now top the table for the first time in seven years.
They might not stay there long term, but with an unchanged team and confidence high it’s hard to see how they’re 4/1 to beat a side who find it tough to score a goal, let alone win a game.
PSG’s poor home form frequently sees their frustrated crowd get on their backs, and I can easily see Auxerre sneaking this one 1-0 away from home, an outcome you can back at 12/1 on Betfair.
With Polish international striker Ireneusz Jelen fit and firing the 4/1 with Stan James looks extremely generous.
Good luck!
This weekend’s tips:
3.45 Newbury (Friday) – Racing UK “National Hunt” Maiden Hurdle – 3 Bellvano (win) @ 10/11 (Sportingbet or Victor Chandler)
1.35 Newbury (Saturday) – sportingbet.com Long Distance Hurdle – 1 Big Buck’s (win)
1.50 Newcastle (Saturday) – wbx.com Fighting Fifth Hurdle – 2 Binocular (win) @ evens (Boylesports or Totesport)
2.40 Newbury (Saturday) – Hennessy Gold Cup Handicap Chase – 9 What A Friend (win) @ 7/1 (Paddy Power or Ladbrokes)
2.40 Newbury (Saturday) – Hennessy Gold Cup Handicap Chase – 19 State Of Play (each way) @ 16/1 (General – compare hennessy odds)
ANTEPOST – RSA Chase – Punchestowns (win) @ 7/1 (Coral, Ladbrokes or Victor Chandler)
6.00 (Saturday) – France Ligue 1 – Auxerre to beat PSG @ 4/1 (Stan James)
6.00 (Saturday) – France Ligue 1 – Auxerre to beat PSG 1-0 @ 12/1 (Betfair)
Tags: antepost, Ap McCoy, auxerre, bets, betting, big bucks, binocular, channel 4, denman, evan williams, fairyhouse, football tips, form, hennessy gold cup, newbury, nicky henderson, odds, paris sg, paul nicholls, ruby walsh, State of Play, tips, what a friend
