Cheltenham Festival Countdown: Supreme Novices’ Hurdle

With the Cheltenham Festival fast approaching, Tom is busy fine tuning which selections he will be posting as tips for the various Cheltenham Races which will appear on this site from Monday 15th March, in time for the first day of the 2010 meeting. However, it never ceases to amaze us here at Betting Directory just how hungry people are for the Cheltenham Festival and we are already seeing huge numbers of people searching for tips and advice ahead of the Festival. Over the space of the next week, we are going to providing our readers with a preview to some of the Festival’s more popular races; looking at who the leading contenders are, where the money has been going in the market and unearthing some trends that may point you in the direction of finding that winner that may not have previously been on your shortlist. We’re going to start with the Cheltenham Festival curtain raiser, the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle.

The only guarantee with the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle is that the start of the race will receive the biggest cheer of the Festival as the tapes go up to signal the start of four days and 26 top class races. However, the betting for the 2010 renewal of the Supreme Novice’s suggests that there is another guarantee in the race, in the form of Dunguib, the long time favourite. The Philip Fenton trained runner has been at the head of the betting for this race since running away to a ten length victory in the Champion Bumper at the Cheltenham Festival 12 months ago and anybody who took the 6/1 with Boylesports about the Irish Raider winning the Supreme Novices’ immediately after that victory will be clearly identifiable from the size of their smile!

Dunguib’s price has only headed in one direction after each of his subsequent five wins from five starts and the odds against soon evaporated following his Grade 1 Deloitte Hurlde win at Leopardstown in February. He is now a best price 4/5 with Bet365, Ladbrokes and Sportingbet with other firms as short as 4/6 and could well go off as the shortest priced favourite in this race in ever! Anybody looking for a bigger price and isn’t bothered about waiting 12 months could do worse than back Dunguib to win the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle this year and the Champion Hurdle in 2011 at 8/1 with Bet365, a price that will surely look massive if he does win in the manner many are expecting.

Favourites haven’t fared too well in this race in recent years, with only four of the last 20 jollies obliging but the question remains have any been as good as Dunguib? His trip over the Irish Sea bodes well though with seven winners in the past nine years trained in Ireland. However, it must be remembered that bar his debut run, this horse has yet to come under pressure and has not been asked any question on a racecourse. This is more than likely because he’s top class and everything points towards him cruising to victory at Prestbury on the 16th March but at the price, many punters will be keen to know what the alternatives have to offer.

The springer in the market has been the Jonjo O’Neil trained runner, Get Me Out of Here, whose odds were slashed from 25/1 into 8/1 following his win in the Totesport Trophy Hurdle at Newbury in February. This unbeaten six year old is clearly a horse on the upgrade and could well pose a big threat to Dunguib if improving again but the fact that this will be his first run at Cheltenham does raise a big question mark to answer.

Oscar Whiskey is another runner with a similar profile to Get Me Out of Here, an unbeaten youngster that has improved with every run. However, he would need to find a big improvement on what he has already shown if he is to win on his first start at Cheltenham and trainer Nicky Henderson may have to wait a little longer for his first win in this race since 1992.

Blackstairmountain looks the pick of the remainding Irish runners and trainer, Willie Mullins, could well throw a spanner in the works of his fellow countryman, Philip Fenton’s, bid to win this race with Dunguib. Whilst far from consistent in his Bumper runs last season, when he did put his best foot forward, Blackstairmountain won well and the same seems evident this season over Hurdles. His latest outing came at Punchestown in Januray, where at the third time of asking, the penny finally dropped over obstacles and he ran away to an easy victory. If he can replicate that kind of form in the Supreme Novices’ then he stands a chance and is still available at 14/1 with Victor Chandler and Stan James. The other Willie Mullins runner is Flat Out (currently 25/1), who has looked impressive on both his (winning) starts over hurdles and is sure to go on to better things. It will no doubt be the decision of jockey Ruby Walsh of which of this pair he decides to take the mount on which will determine where the money goes come day one of the Cheltenham Festival but the ultimate question is can Dunguib be beaten?

2010 Supreme Novices Hurdle Odds Comparison