It’s a contest in which last year’s second Sajjhaa, third Timepiece and eighth placed horse Myplacelater all return for another crack at this valuable prize (worth £56,710 to the winner), but all three five year olds might have to give best to a year younger rival from a bang in-form stable.

First past the post on four of her seven starts Izzi Top had a superb three year old season, beating Dancing Rain by a head to win Newbury’s Swettenham Stud Fillies’ Trial last May, only to see that rival reverse form in the Oaks itsellf a couple of weeks later, as Izzi Top finished third at Epsom.

One more run that campaign yielded a gutsy Group 3 win on Soft ground at Saint-Cloud in October, and she proved she’d wintered well by scoring first time out this season with a length and quarter success in the Dahlia Stakes at Newmarket on Guineas weekend.

Entirely versatile as regards ground, she’ll thrive on this step back up to ten and a half furlongs, and a big run here can set her up nicely for a tilt at the Windsor Forest Stakes at Royal Ascot.

With the advantage of race fitness over the likes of Set To Music, Sea Of Heartbreak and I’m A Dreamer a hot race can go the way of Izzi Top and William Buick.

Elsewhere on the card it’ll be fascinating to see if Roger Varian’s Steps can win the opening five furlong handicap after seeing the form of his win at Doncaster in October franked by opening day winner Secret Witness, while the Derby aspirations of the likes of Bonfire, Mandaean and Ernest Hemingway will be seen in a different light after the feature Dante Stakes at 2.30pm.

That looks a contest to savour rather than invest in, given that any of the three and Ektihaam could easily be the one to land the Dante.

Good luck!

Thursday’s best bet at York:

2.00 – Betfred Middleton Stakes – 6 Izzi Top (win) @ 4/1 with Blue Square

                          

This week it’s the turn of York, and on Wednesday we get a good look at a pair of fillies with possible designs on the Epsom Oaks, as a field of six line up over an extended ten and a half furlongs in the Group 3 Tattersalls Musidora Stakes at 2.30pm (live on Channel 4).

Despite the small field it’s got the potential to be an exciting contest, with Nell Gwyn winner Esentepe taking her place aongside 50/1 Cheshire Oaks victor Good Morning Star, Group 1 Fillies’ Mile fourth Salford Art, as well as 1,000 Guineas fourth The Fugue (Oaks entry).

The Fugue (out of a Sadler’s Wells mare) was doing all her best work at the finish at Newmarket 1o days ago, suggesting this step up in trip ought to paint her in a good light, but the one to leave her in the shade is a fellow Oaks entry in the shape of Aidan O’Brien’s Twirl.

She won her maiden in the manner of a very smart filly at Leopardstown in November, is entered in everything imaginable, and made a perfectly satisfactory return when second in a Group 3 at the Curragh in March.

With her stable now firing on all cylinders this daughter of Galileo might be hard to peg back now she steps up in trip, and she can book her place for Epsom in a race where Ballydoyle certainly won’t be short on firepower!

Half an hour later the feature Group 2 Duke Of York Totepool Stakes is also live on Channel 4, and it’s a race where the drying ground, drop in class, booking of Ryan Moore and return to his favourite track all mean Hoof It has a massive chance of landing this attractive prize.

A course and distance winner (one of two cd wins last summer) at this meeting a year ago, he wins fresh, and connections will have been delighted to see the weather help dry the track out to provide officially Good ground.

This horse’s progress last summer was amazing, with an opening handicap win off 99 followed by wins in the Sky Bet Dash and the Stewards’ Cup, before two efforts in Group 1 company culminated in a creditable third in the Haydock Sprint Cup.

That proves he can cut it at this level, and with lots in his favour he’s entitled to go close in a hot race.

Palace House Stakes one-two Mayson and Definightly head a long list of dangers, but the one they have to beat is Hoof It.

Good luck!

Wednesday’s best bets at York:

2.30 – Tattersalls Musidora Stakes – 6 Twirl (win) @ 6/4 (Ladbrokes, Stan James or Sportingbet)

3.00 – Duke Of York Totepool Stakes – 4 Hoof It (win) @ 4/1 (BetVictor or Blue Square)

                          

Saturday’s 2000 Guineas card has a bit of something for everyone of the summer racing persuasion, with an absolutely enthralling renewal of the Jockey Club Stakes, the feature Classic itself, plus a couple of fiendishly difficult handicaps, as well the third racecourse outing for Frankel’s brother Noble Mission, as he looks to build on his recent Newbury win.

I’ve an inkling Saturday could turn out to be a great day for France, with the potential for barrow loads of euros to be finding their way across the channel following the two big purses of the day.

With the rain softened ground throwing up question marks for both Masked Marvel and Quest For Peace in the Group 2 Qatar Bloodstock Jockey Club Stakes, it may well leave the door ajar for Andre Fabre’s top-rated Meandre to justify favouritism in the hands of Maxime Guyon.

Ultra-consistent in 2011 in a season which yielded a win in the Grand Prix De Paris, a second in the Prix Niel, plus a sixth in the Arc (Masked Marvel ran down the field in 16th), he will be the least inconvenienced by the ground of the fancied horses, and can stamp his class.

Yes he has to prove he can do it outside France, but with fellow French challenger and Melbourne Cup winner Dunaden probably best on quicker ground and over further, it’s hard to see Meandre not running his race, especially as Quest For Peace probably wants faster ground as well.

Fiorente is Sir Michael Stoute’s representative, but he has a stone to find on figures, plus hasn’t been seen since July.

Take Meandre to get us off to a flyer at 9/4 with Stan James.

The 204th running of the 2000 Guineas fills the Channel 4 airwaves at 3.10pm, a race which revolves around short priced favourite Camelot.

Given the way he scorched the turf in the Racing Post Trophy back in October it’s not hard to see why bookmakers are treading carefully where this son of Montjeu is concerned.

That said, we don’t have any guarantees as to how he’ll handle the softer ground he’s about to encounter for the first time in public, nor can we be absolutely certain how he’s trained on.

Names like Celtic Swing, Hawk Wing, One Cool Cat, New Approach and St Nicholas Abbey all failed in this race at shortish odds, and might this be another unwanted name on that list?

He may go out there and pulverise them, but at far bigger odds it makes sense to back one who’s guaranteed to be suited by cut in the ground, and who has had the benefit of a prep run.

Step forward Pau based Jean-Claude Rouget’s Abtaal, who comes with a cast iron guarantee where the going is concerned, and will improve for his recent outing when second to the re-opposing French Fifteen at Maisons-Laffitte in the Prix Djebel.

In fact his form ties in very closely with Nicholas Clement’s French Fifteen, in that he thrashed him at Saint-Cloud in October, only for French Fifteen to come out and frank the form in style in the Group 1 Criterium International three weeks later.

Abtaal wasn’t knocked about and was certainly not fully wound up in the Djebel, a key trial over the years, and with the rain having arrived he can reverse that most recent piece of form, and make a bold bid for the 2000 Guineas crown.

He looks a value each way play at 8/1 with any of BetVictor, Blue Square, Ladbrokes or Coral.

Finally, far away from the glitz and glamour of the Rowley Mile, cast an eye over Dundalk’s Friday evening card and the iRadio iGo Home Handicap at 7.35pm.

I’d have preferred a lower draw than stall eight for Brendan Duke’s seven year old Headache, but down to a mark of 58 he’s capable of bagging his first success for two years.

That win came at Wolverhampton in this month in 2010, and off a reduced mark I know connections think he’s lost none of his ability, and although not a superstar has it within his grasp to net a contest of this nature.

In an open contest that lacks strength in depth the 7/1 each way with Paddy Power looks worth a nibble each way.

Good luck!

This weekend’s best bets:

7.35 Dundalk (Fri) – iRadio iGo Home Handicap – 12 Headache (each way) @ 7/1 (Paddy Power)

2.30 Newmarket (Sat) – Qatar Bloodstock Jockey Club Stakes – 6 Meandre (win) @ 9/4 (Stan James)

3.10 Newmarket (Sat) – QIPCO 2000 Guineas – 1 Abtaal (each way) @ 8/1 (BetVictor, Blue Square, Ladbrokes or Coral)

                          

Instead of pulling the plug when the elements threatened to crowbar the word ‘abandoned’ into Thursday’s itinerary, they took the brave decision to battle the elements, and the resulting pools coupon definitely reads Punchestown 1-0 Mother Nature, something everyone who was present will be rightly grateful for.

The other performance-related gongs handed out to date go to the incomparable Quevega and her rampant trainer Willie Mullins – a mare blessed with talent and guts to match, trained by a man at the peak of his powers, a man who not once but twice this week has seen his string produce 1-2-3 finishes in Grade 1 company.

We’re not done yet, and there could be plenty more to come this afternoon, especially as Wednesday’s feature event has been rescheduled as the second race on today’s six race card, with the Grade 1 thetote.com Punchestown Gold Cup over 3m 1f live on RTE2 at 3.15pm.

Despite the fact Willie Mullins has Quel Esprit arriving here on a four timer after his Irish Hennessy win in February, I’m not convinced his Leopardstown form is the strongest, in that he was allowed to dominate up front in a weak race, and got things all his own way, whole the strongly fancied China Rock flopped.

China Rock is back for more this afternoon, but has already had a hard race at the meeting this week and is over-looked given that this may come far too quickly (two race in five days).

Quantitativeeasing makes the journey across from England for Nicky Henderson, but he has to prove he can bridge the gap from handicap company to Grade 1 level.

Follow The Plan won this race 12 months ago, plus comes here off the back of a shock 50/1 success in the Betfred Bowl at Aintree, but for anyone backing him you have to consider how easily Quel Esprit beat him at Leopardstown, plus his unconvincing strike-rate.

The one to show them all a clean pair of heels is Robbie Hennessy’s Rubi Light, top rated by the handicapper on 162, and a Heavy ground specialist, one for whom conditions like he’ll encounter today appear tailor made.

He’s a classy operator who comes into his own when the mud is flying, and his second in Leopardstown’s Lexus Chase at Christmas time reads very well in light of the ill-fated winner Synchronised’s subsequent Gold Cup win.

Rubi Light has to prove his stamina will last out over this extended trip, but I think it will and he looks worthy of support at 5/2 with either Stan James or William Hill.

In the other Grade 1 on the card Dermot Weld returns to he National Hunt scene for the first time in a couple of weeks with Hisaabaat, and his speedy son of Dubawi can benefit from the application of blinkers to take the Grade 1 AES Champion Four Year Old Hurdle at 4.30pm.

A winner at Leopardstown in February (beating the re-opposing Shadow Catcher), he went on to be second in the Triumph Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival, and with the headgear on he can improve further on ground that’s unlikely to stop him in his tracks.

He looks a solid option at 4/1 with Sportingbet.

Finally, he may not be Britain’s champion trainer for 2011/12 but Nicky Henderson has had a momentous season, firing in winners like an unruly child let loose with a water pistol, and after seeing Oscara Dara justify favouritism here yesterday he can cap a fine campaign with victory for Une Artiste in the Grade 3 Mares’ Hurdle at 5.05pm.

She’ll love the ground, has been beaten only once in four starts since arriving from France in January, and gets weight from everything as one of only two four year olds in the line up.

The price isn’t sexy, but providing this isn’t one race too many she is by far the most likely winner.

You can back her at 7/4 with any of BetVictor.

Lastly, for anyone looking for some clues about my own family’s runner Le Beau Bai in the old Whitbread Gold Cup at Sandown Park, I’d say I’m very hopeful but not overflowing with confidence:

If the ground was like it is in Punchestown it’d be happy days, but the official description there is only Soft (Good to Soft), while it’s well known our lad wants it Heavy bordering on unraceable.

He also has to prove he’s as good racing right-handed (has won at Towcester, Exeter and Carlisle), plus will have to cope with Sandown’s big fences, which come thick and fast for a horse as small as him.

That said, if I’m sounding slightly negative that’d be misleading – he’s a great athlete who sparkled in his final piece of work on Thursday, and is 100% fit and ready to go to war.

With Charlie Poste suspended Jamie Moore takes over in the saddle – and if we could just have the forecast rain in the Esher area from now until 3pm then his chances will increase.

An attritional big field handicap of this nature holds no fears whatsoever, his mark of 140 is workable, and this is a compact but very tough horse who won’t be giving up easily.

Good luck!

Saturday’s best bets at Punchestown:

3.15 – thetote.com Punchestown Gold Cup – 8 Rubi Light (win) @ 5/2 (Stan James or William Hill)

4.30 – AES Champion Four Year Old Hurdle – 7 Hisaabaat (win) @ 4/1 (Sportingbet)

5.05 – Irish Thoroughbred Breeders Association Fillies Scheme EBF Mares Hurdle – 16 Une Artiste (win) @ 7/4 (BetVictor)

                          

On a line through Voler La Vedette (who got to within a length and three quarters of Big Buck’s in March) she’d have a huge shout, but with the David Nicholson Mares’ Hurdle appearing to be under lock and key where Willie Mullins’ star filly is concerned, it seems unlikely that connections will be tempted to stray from a tried and tested path.

Huge credit should also go to the Turf Club’s Senior Handicapper Noel O’Brien, who had yesterday’s big race first three on identical ratings – a triumph for the assessor if ever there was one, (even with the mares’ allowance to be taken into consideration).

As if that excitement wasn’t enough this afternoon we get the latest instalment of the Hurricane Fly story, with the star hurdler long odds on to record his 11th Grade 1 success.

His master trainer Willie Mullins is having a great week despite the atrocious weather, and after his Grade 1 Novice Hurdle 1-2-3 courtesy of Marasonnien, Vesper Bell and Sous Les Cieux on Wednesday, it’s more than likely he could repeat the trick in this afternoon’s big race, given that in Hurricane Fly, Thousand Stars and mud lover Zaidpour he fields three of the four runners.

On ratings Thousand Stars is the most likely to chase him home, but the gap between the pair on figures is nine pounds (173-164), and to put it into context the score between them stands at 6-0 when they’ve met in the past.

It’s still something of a mystery why the usual trademark acceleration wasn’t there when Ruby Walsh asked Hurricane Fly for his effort in the Champion Hurdle at Cheltenham in March, finishing only third to Rock On Ruby and Overturn.

If he’s back to his best this afternoon then there’s only on outcome, especially as the ground won’t hinder him, though perhaps Zaidpour will be better suited by conditions and can chase him home for the forecast.

This afternoon’s weather shortened five race card kicks off at 4.55pm, with the re-scheduled Grade 1 Ryanair Novice Chase getting us underway at 4.55pm (live on RTE).

Philip Hobbs’ Menorah is likely to go off favourite on the back of his win at Aintree in the Manifesto Novices’ Chase at Aintree 15 days ago.

Hobbs loves Punchestown, and produced Snap Tie with something bordering on surgical precision to win a handicap off top weight after a break of more than 900 days earlier in the week.

Menorah is progressing and it makes sense to run him given this is his final opportunity in novice company, but the ground isn’t certain to suit and his jumping may come under pressure, which could spell trouble given that in 6 chase starts to date he’s made plenty of mistakes, notably at Exeter, Taunton, Kempton, Doncaster and Cheltenham.

The ‘home’ team are headed by the Mouse Morris trained First Lieutenant, a class horse who won the 2011 Neptune Novices’ Hurdle and has finished out of the first two just once in six chase starts.

This will be his first start over fences at the minimum two mile trip, but given the ultra-testing conditions his proven stamina allied to an aggressive ride might offset the change in distance.

He won a Grade 1 Novice Hurdle at Leopardstown 16 months ago (beating Zaidpour!!), and was just two and a half lengths adrift of the admirable Bobs Worth in the RSA Chase in March.

With that in mind First Lieutenant is the selection at 3/1 with Bet365.

Perhaps the one to chase him home can be the consistent Lucky William for Tom Cooper and Barry Geraghty – he’s got a few pounds to find on official figures, but is a sweet traveller who’ll love the going and is capable of a big run.

I saw him win his Beginners’ Chase at Listowel in September on very testing ground, and he won at Fairyhouse 18 days ago to prove his wellbeing and justify a shot at this valuable prize.

The other opening on the card arrives at 6.05pm with the Grade 1 Cathal Ryan Memorial Champion Novice Hurdle – it’s another small field of just eight runners, and a favourite that is on record as potentially vulnerable on the ground.

Felix Yonger is an obvious starting point in light of his stable’s rampant form and his second to Simonsig at Cheltenham, but how he’ll cope with these conditions is a mystery.

In an open race one that will positively lap it up is Dessie Hughes’ Lyreen Legend, who has proven Heavy ground form in the book and looks well worth an interest at 9/2 with any of William Hill, Paddy Power, Stan James or Blue Square.

Good luck!

Friday’s best bets at Punchestown:

4.55 – Ryanair Novice Chase – 2 First Lieutenant (win) @ 3/1 (Bet365)

6.05 – Cathal Ryan Memorial Champion Novice Hurdle – 6 Lyreen Legend (win) @ 9/2 (William Hill, Paddy Power, Stan James or Blue Square)

                          

The general consensus at the end of day two was there wasn’t a prayer of saving the third instalment of the great Irish National Hunt Festival, but with groundstaff out on the track through the night pumping water off the course that’s precisely what they’ve done, albeit minus the chases for the second day running.

I dont think there’s even a 1% chance an English track would’ve raced in these sort of conditions, but they proved yesterday it wasn’t unsafe, and everyone’s much happier with the show continuing as we all hoped but doubted it would.

The weather over here has been nothing short of brutal, with howling winds and driving rain making it pretty uncomfortable, but Ireland being Ireland no-one bats an eyelid, and they just get on with what they do best, namely having a good time.

The conditions are anything but ladylike, but clearly that hasn’t dissuaded connections of jumping’s two superstar mares Quevega and Voler La Vedette from pitching them in against one another for a third time – with this afternoon’s feature Grade 1 Ladbrokes.com World Series Hurdle over three miles the stage (live on RTE at a revised time of 6.05pm), with the score currently standing at 2-0 to Quevega.

That she’s a remarkable mare is beyond question, as four wins on the bounce in Cheltenham David Nicholson Mares’ Hurdle, plus back to back wins in this afternoon’s big pot at Punchestown, would suggest.

That said, the improving Voler La Vedette is now her equal on ratings at least, with both of them sitting pretty on the lofty perch of 158 (Quevega’s stablemate Mourad is also rated 158 and runs in opposition).

She put the fear of God into fans of Big Buck’s when getting to within a length the three quarters of him in the World Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival, and is clearly more than capable of getting one over Quevaga, especially when there’s a least a hint that the Heavy ground might inconvenience her a fraction less than her chief market rival.

Throw Mourad, Berties Dream and Get Me Out Of Here into the mix and you’ve got one heck of a race.

My personal opinion is that Quevage will make it 3-0, but with the ground as it is, allied to the intense level of opposition, I can’t get too carried away with the idea of backing Quevaga at no bigger than 5/4.

Better then to let this one go, and simply enjoy what promises to be a thriller.

Elsewhere on the card I can pass on a strong word for David Pipe’s The Tracey Shuffle in the opener (now being run at 4.50pm).

There’s more chance of Daffy Duck being elected as the next President Of The United States than there is of this six year old son of Kapgarde failing to relish the wet conditions, and when I bumped into his jockey Tom Scudamore on Tuesday night he simply said: “he will love the ground”.

This is a winner of one (hurdle) race, and the Pond House team may have found the ideal opening.

Already a winner of bumpers at Musselburgh (Soft) and Newcastle (Heavy) last year, he began his hurdling career at Lingfield in January, finishing second to Nagpur on Soft, the form of which was franked when Nagpur won again shortly afterwards.

The Tracey Shuffle stepped up on that effort with an easy win at Ayr (again on Soft), and there’s a confident word around that win number two can be delivered this afternoon.

You can back him to win at 2/1 with any of Betfred, Paddy Power, Stan James, Ladbrokes or William Hill.

We get a real taste of Punchestown at 5.30pm, with the La Touche Cup over 4m 1f of the banks course likely have them strung out like the washing.

Willie Mullins’ Uncle Junior is 4/1 favourite and the obvious place to start, but he was a shade disappointing in Cheltenham, and it may pay to shop elsewhere.

Banks king Enda Bolger has won this race 11 times in the last 13 years, but unusually both of his runners here – Arabella Boy and Doctor Pat – are having their first ever runs on a cross country course.

At a bigger price and with much less weight to carry, I’m going to take a chance on Philip Rothwell’s Tally Em Up.

He’s available at 10/1 with Ladbrokes, goes on Heavy, ran well in the Cheltenham Cross Country, and has been placed on both occasions he’s run on this unique course.

By Flemensfirth he ought to relish bottomless ground, and courtesy of Declan Bates’ five pound claim he’s got a lovely low racing weight.

If his stamina holds out a shock could be on the cards.

Good luck!

Thursday’s best bets at Punchestown:

4.50 – Stephens Green Hibernian Club Hurdle – 5 The Tracey Shuffle (win) @ 2/1 (Betfred, Paddy Power, Stan James, Ladbrokes or William Hill)

5.30 – Avon Ri Corporate & Leisure Resort Chase For The La Touche Cup – 24 Tally Em Up (each way) @ 10/1 (Ladbrokes)

                          

They were finishing tired yesterday, and it makes perfect sense to tailor day two’s strategy around mud lovers who’ve got the stomach to handle these types of conditions.

I’m having a bet in all three Grade 1 events on the card, with Tony Mullins’ supplementary entry Bridgets Pet an each way play in the three mile Irish Daily Mirror War Of Attrition Novice Hurdle at 4.55pm.

It has to be a little bit of a tip in itself that owner Barry Connell was prepared to shell out €7,500 to add this five year old son of Arakan to the field, and this step up in trip on ground he’ll relish could be a winning combination.

He’s very tough and clearly improving based on his excellent recent form (placed in Grade 2 company at Thurles and Fairyhouse).

Bridgets Pet has got a good one to beat in Royal Bond winner Sous Les Cieux, but at 5/2 the favourite doesn’t do it for me after watching him get turned over at Leopardstown at Christmas (4/9), and again at Leopardstown in February in the Deloitte (2/1).

He was then comprehensively beaten in the Neptune Novices’ Hurdle at Cheltenham, and although this softer ground might spark a revival, I’m uneasy following him at a short enough price when he’s trying this trip for the first time and also now wears blinkers.

The application of the head gear suggests he isn’t necessarily 100% straightforward, and at 13/2 each way with Paddy Power i’d far rather back the hugely willing Bridgets Pet.

The big race rolls around at 5.30pm (live on RTE1), and though the price isn’t anything to be getting too giddy about you can be sure Rubi Light will be squeezing into his favourite wetsuit, then donning a mask, snorkel and flippers as he prepares to step up in trip to 3m 1f for the first time.

To my mind this race is really about which horse can best maintain his form and handle the conditions, and in Robbie Hennessy’s runner I think we’ve got the ideal candidate.

He comes out joint highest rated on official figures (162), and back on his favoured surface after a fifth in the Ryanair at Cheltenham he can give Andrew Lynch another big race win after Sizing Europe did the business yesterday.

His Lexus second to the ill-fated Synchronised was franked in literally the best way possible in the Cheltenham Gold Cup, and in my mind he’s the one they have to beat.

There is a question mark about his stamina, especially given he’s a strong travelling sort, but he stays 2m 5f at Cheltenham and ought to see this out.

Of the opposition Willie Mullins fields two in opposition, with Irish Hennessy winner Quel Esprit his principal hope in the hands of Ruby Walsh.

He’s clear favourite with most firms (favourite has won 7 of the last 10 runnings) and on the exchanges at the time of writing, but I thought he got his own way up front in a weak Leopardstown Grade 1, and i’d far rather be with Rubi Light.

Last year’s fortuitous winner Follow The Plan also deserves a mention, especially in light of his Aintree heroics in the Betfred Bowl 13 days ago.

His overall profile doesn’t look good enough, but don’t forget the only two Betfred Bowl winners to contest this race both won – Florida Pearl and First Gold.

Despite that i’ll be sticking with Rubi Light to do the business in the Punchestown Gold Cup – he’s a 3/1 shot with any of Bet365, Betfred, BetVictor, Stan James or William Hill.

In the Grade 1 Bumper at 6.05pm it could pay to look beyond the Cheltenham Bumper one-two of Champagne Fever and New Year’s Eve.

Only Cousin Vinny in 2008 has managed to complete the double (Dunguib did but was kicked out in 2009), and with all the weight allowances there’s a Heavy ground specialist who might just be capable of bloodying their noses, and the filly i’m referring to is Noel Meade’s Fickle Fortune.

She was hampered but won easily on her debut at Down Royal in February, drawing praise from her delighted trainer who labelled her ‘very special’.

Given that she hasn’t got the scars of any Cheltenham exertions on the clock and loves today’s conditions we might find out why shortly after 6pm.

Back her each way at 13/2 with BetVictor.

Finally, I won’t be at all surprised if Carrigmartin can cope with the ground and win a surprisingly weak race for the €49,600 first prize in the Guinness Handicap Chase over 2m 4f at 6.40pm.

I can’t quite work out what’s going to beat him, in that his rivals are either out of form, poorly handicapped or unlikely to handle the going.

A little bit each way with either BetVictor or Coral might round the day off nicely.

Good luck!

Wednesday’s best bets at Punchestown:

4.55 – Irish Daily Mirror War Of Attrition Novice Hurdle – 11 Bridgets Pet (each way) @ 13/2 (Paddy Power)

5.30 – thetote.com Punchestown Gold Cup – 10 Rubi Light (win) @ 3/1 (Bet365, Betfred, BetVictor, Stan James or William Hill)

6.05 – betchronicle.com Champion INH Flat Race – 11 Fickle Fortune (each way) @ 13/2 (BetVictor)

6.40 – Guinness Handicap Chase – 6 Carrigmartin (each way) @ 11/2 (Coral or BetVictor)

                          

If you were taking someone racing for the first time it’d have to be high on the list of where you’d choose to get someone hooked on the sport – top facilities, equine stars wherever you look, a beautiful setting and a proper Irish welcome. Unbeatable in my book.

I arrived via the slow boat to China (Dublin Port if truth be told) yesterday afternoon and immediately headed to walk the track, as tradition dictates.

To say I was taken aback by how much rain has fallen here would be an understatement, and what’s more the forecast for the week is atrocious.

It’s going to be a serious test, especially on the bend heading into the back straight, down the back and racing off the final bend where the ground is at its softest.

Credit to Clerk of the Course Richie Galway and his team – they’ve produced the track to look like a billiard table, with perfectly presented hurdles and fences and the ideal grass cover, but clearly the one thing they can do nothing to control is what falls out the sky, and though it’ll be lovely ground for anyone taking a fall, it might also throw up some peculiar results.

Bear in mind many of the chief protagonists are arriving here off the back of hard races in Cheltenham or Aintree (or both!), and while we don’t know who’s over the top and who’s coming nicely to the boil for the end of season spectacular, we also cannot underestimate what toll the heavy ground on the far side of the track will take.

On day one alone there are three odds on favourites to weigh up, with all the Grade 1 events (live on RTE) featuring oustanding candidates.

Trifolium is no bigger than 4/7 for the Evening Herald Champion Novice Hurdle (run over 2m at 4.20pm), and rightly so given his outstanding run at Cheltenham when third in the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle, plus his proven course form and ability to handle Heavy ground.

His closest rival would appear to be County Hurdle winner Alderwood, but he had a hard enough race inbetween when winning a Grade 2 at Fairyhouse, and so might be lacking the edge in terms of freshness.

What’s more, on a line through the Willie Mullins horse Allure Of Allusion, Alderwood has close on six lengths to make up on Trifolium if you interpret their respective runs against him in the strictest terms.

Later on there’s also 1/4 shot Sir Des Champs in the Growise Champion Novice Chase over 3m 1f at 6.40pm.

Although he’s never run at Punchestown it looks like we’re clasping at straws trying to find a chink in his armour – he too is proven on Heavy, is unbeaten in four starts over fences, and looked a monster when easily winning the Jewson at the Festival back in March.

Bookmakers already make him no bigger than 6/1 favourite for next year’s Cheltenham Gold Cup, and though he isn’t running against trees today it’d be a major shock if he’s beaten.

Possibly the best of his rivals is Mossey Joe, but he hasn’t been sighted since June and has overcome serious injury problems, but in a sense it’s been a triumph for his patient trainer Declan McNamara just to get him back on the track, and what’s more he won’t be at home on ground this deep.

So if Trifolium and Sir Des Champs have the appearance of odds on bankers, what of the third leg of the treble?

A- list star Sizing Europe is 1/2 to win the boylesports.com Champion Chase in the hands of Andrew Lynch, and though he’s a top class horse and can get the job done, you might want to think twice before blindly following him at that grim price:

- he clearly prefers better ground than he’ll encounter this afternoon
- arrives here off the back of a very hard race in Cheltenham, where lest we forget he was defeated
- beaten in this race in 2011
- beaten in this race in 2010
- Big Zeb, who beat him here 12 months ago, re-opposes
- trained specifically for Cheltenham, and this might be a bridge too far
- only 2 of the last 15 winners were aged in double figures (Sizing Europe is 10)

Despite all of those factors he can operate on Heavy ground, has a massive edge on official ratings (10lbs and more), and has seen the form of his unlucky Cheltenham defeat handsomely franked.

Even so, I would also say there might be one to put the wind up him at bigger prices, and though Pricewise has wrecked the price by nominating Realt Dubh, I really think he might be on to something in suggesting Noel Meade’s eight year old son of Beneficial.

A course and distance winner without too many miles on the clock, he was off the track for 10 months before returning in satisfactory fashion in the Champion Chase at the Festival, a reappearance which should have brought him forward considerably.

His aptitude for handling Heavy ground is a massive plus, and he ran a blinder when a narrow second to Arkle winner Captain Chris at this meeting 12 months ago.

If there is to be a shock then Realt Dubh has the perfect profile to provide it, and he can be backed at 8/1 each way with any of Bet365, BetVictor or Ladbrokes.

Perhaps all the shorties will go in, but bear in mind anyone at home wanting to roll up these supposed ‘good things’ into a win treble is looking at an average of around 1.94/1, or in more conventional terms not even 2/1, and only just a whisker bigger than 15/8.

At the end of a gruelling season, with the ground officially Soft to Heavy you’d have to be out of your mind to take that price, a bet bookies will be falling over to lay in offices all over Britain and Ireland this morning – just one faller, an unlucky unseating, a horse hampered or running out from three selections and you’ve done your cash. Madness.

With conditions as they are a little bit each way on Realt Dubh at a working man’s price seems a far better way to go, and while you are it have a peep at the unraced Bishopslough in the concluding bumper.

Tony Mullins is widely acknowledged as a man who can get one ready when the occasion demands, indeed his team boast an 11% strike rate in races of this nature since 2007.

This lad is meant to be working like a decent sort, and at 25/1 each way on a tricky opening day he might send us home with a few bonus euros to spend at the bar while watching Chelsea try and smother Barcelona this evening.

Happy Punchestown & Good luck!

Tuesday’s best bets at Punchestown:

5.30 – boylesports.com Champion Chase – 5 Realt Dubh (each way) @ 8/1 (Bet365, BetVictor or Ladbrokes)

7.15 – Finlay Motor Group INH Flat Race – 3 Bishopslough (each way) @ 25/1 (BetVictor, Paddy Power or SkyBet)

                          

We’re up in Ayr where the sun’s out and the track looks in great nick ahead of their big day, with the Coral Scottish National (3.25pm) forming the centrepiece of Channel 4′s seven race bonanza on Saturday afternoon.

Having not been to the track since 2003 I have to say i’m impressed by both the atmosphere and the layout, with a big crowd more than happy to lend their support to the Friday fixture, though the sight of my ashen-faced colleague Trifleman clambering from a taxi shortly after a turbulent flight up from London wasn’t quite how i’d envisaged being welcomed to the course.

If he recovers in time I’ll definitely be telling him to keep on the right side of 2010 winner Merigo, as the 11-year-old goes in search of a second win in the big race following a gallant second to Beshabar when significantly higher in the ratings 12 months ago.

To say Dumfries trainer Andrew Parker’s chestnut gelding saves his best for this place is something of an understatement – in seven runs at the track he’s never been out of the frame, with fours wins to his name alongside two seconds and a third.

He won his prep race here in March to illustrate a heartening return to form, definitely goes on the prevailing Good ground, and pleasingly is re-united with Timmy Murphy who won the big one on him two years ago, and was also in the saddle when he finished second.

He got the job done off a handicap mark of 127 in 2010, and only narrowly lost out in a bid to follow up off 142.

On Saturday afternoon he’ll think he’s got loose under a feather weight of 10.2 (off 134), and the rash of money which saw big sponsor Coral’s initial quote of 14/1 obliterated may indeed prove to have been well placed.

His big white face will make him easy to spot, and it’s a face the layers will be none too keen to see gracing the winner’s enclosure.

You can back Merigo each way at 15/2 with Paddy Power, and pleasingly the Irish firm are offering a valuable fifth place concession.

But what of the favourite I hear you ask?!

Paul Nicholls has lined up seven year old Harry The Viking – never out of the first two in six career starts and a gallant second in the Cheltenham four miler – to try and complete a lightning quick Grand National smash and grab, after the victory of Neptune Collonges at Aintree last Saturday.

He was available at 8/1 with Coral when the sponsors first priced up their race, and is now available at a top offer of 6/1 (clear favourite).

He ran a mighty race to be second to Teaforthree at the Festival, but the stats for the Scottish National are nothing if not discomforting if you’re considering backing the jolly in a 25 horse race:

- The last 10 favourites have all been beaten, six of which failed to complete the course

- Nine of the last 10 winners carried 10 stone 9lbs or less (HTV lines up under 10.11)

- Only three of the last 12 winners had run at that season’s Cheltenham Festival

- Of the last 46 seven years olds to line up in the race only one was successful

All things considered i’m more than happy to look elsewhere and chance my arm on Merigo – an in-form course specialist looking to enhance a brilliant record in the race.

Also live on C4 is the grandly titled Isle Of Skye Blended Whisky Scottish Champion Hurdle, which is in fact a handicap, albeit a serious and valuable one with Clerk’s Choice burdened with top weight off a mark of 147.

Certain to go off a relatively short priced favourite is the Paul Nicholls charge Edgardo Sol, who lines up eight pounds well in off 144 after seeing his rating rocket skyward after winning easily at Aintree over fences last Saturday.

For all that he looks like the proverbial good thing it’s probably also worth remembering his record over hurdles – just one win from 10 attempts, although there is a County Hurdle second in there from March which is obviously attractive in this context.

That said, prior to the County he was chinned three times on the bounce off lower marks this season, and having had a whopping 10 runs during the current campaign he looks worth taking on at cramped odds, especially as Ayr is a million miles from Ditcheat and this could turn out to be one race too many.

So with Edgardo Sol ruled out there has to be value lurking at bigger prices, and the one that appeals most is Donald McCain’s Red Merlin, who returned to the track with a bang from an 11 month absence under top weight in a 0-130 (his handicap debut) at Newcastle last month.

Up only five pounds he gets in here with a lovely low weight, has knocked in four on the spin over timber, goes on the ground, and having been a very good horse at up to a mile and half on the Flat it’d be no surprise were he to snag this valuable prize in the hands of Jason Maguire.

The stable’s runners continue in good heart, as displayed by Lexi’s Boy who bagged the opener from the front at Ayr on Friday, and don’t forget this is the race in which a certain Overturn rose to prominence two years ago!

To put it another way, if Harry The Viking and Edgardo Sol do the business and Paul Nicholls has a big race double I’ll be having a truly miserable afternoon!

The final word this week goes to my C4 Racing colleague Nick ‘Buzz’ Lightfoot, a star behind the scenes in our operation, and a thorough stayer on firm ground, though he’ll need to be given that he lines up in the London Marathon on Sunday Morning!

He deserves a pat on the back after a gruelling training regime, and I’m on at 150/1 that he completes in under four hours.

Good luck!

Saturday’s best bets at Ayr:

2.50 – Isle Of Skye Blended Whisky Scottish Champion Hurdle (Limited Handicap) – 8 Red Merlin (each way) @ 6/1 (BetVictor, Paddy Power or Stan James)

3.25 – Coral Scottish Grand National – 13 Merigo (each way) @ 15/2 (Paddy Power)

                          

There’s a typically rich pre-race narrative going into the race, with the McCain family going for a sixth win in the race with last year’s winner Ballabriggs (he’s bidding to become the first horse since Red Rum in 1974 to follow up), Gold Cup winner Synchronised attempting to add the Aintree feature to his Cheltenham heroics (none has managed it since Golden Miller way back in 1934!), and not one but two examples of sibling rivalry as Ruby Walsh rides On His Own for boss Willie Mullins, while sister Katie rides Seabass for their father Ted, plus the Carberry clan are at it too with 1999 winner Paul aboard Chicago Grey, while sister Nina gets the leg up on 2011 Irish Grand National winner Organisedconfusion.

Barring a miracle it’s AP McCoy’s mount Synchronised who’s going to go off favourite, but given his propensity for dropping off the pace and throwing in some howling errors it’s a brave man who’d back him at as short as 6/1 in a 40 horse race, especially as he’d bidding to the first top weight since Red Rum to triumph.

He’s not a big horse, but his is as thorough stayer as you could ever wish for, and time may prove that he’s thrown in here despite having to carry top weight, but in a race of this nature, over these fences, I’m definitely keen to shop elsewhere.

I’m also not bowled over by the idea of backing Donald McCain’s Ballabriggs – what a training performance it would be if he could coax another National out of this fella givent that he’s 11 years of age now, racing off a mark of 160 (won off 150 last year) which means a big racing weight to shoulder, plus his prep run at Kelso was only okay rather than dripping with promise of more to come.

There’s West End Rocker for Alan King and Wayne Hutchinson, but a couple of warm, sunny, breezy days have seen the ground dry out, and it might just count against him.

Those same concerns about the Good-ish ground apply to Giles Cross more than most, while backers of Victor Dartnall’s Haydock Trial winner also have to contend with the fact jockey Denis O’Regan deserted Giles Cross in favour of Black Apaplachi following concerns about his ability to get down to 10 stone and one pound to take the mount.

David Pipe won the National in 2008 with 7/1 joint favourite Comply Or Die, and here he relies on the blinkered Junior in the hands of Tom Scudamore.

Such is his versatility Junior must be a wonderful horse to own – he won the Ascot Stakes on the Flat at the Royal Meeting in 2010, and went on to score at the Cheltenham Festival in 2011.

His prep run at Donacaster was good, the form of which has been franked when the winner Ikorodu Road scored again at Newbury next time up.

Junior will like the drying ground, but for anyone considering a wager stop and remember his lack of experience – just the eight starts over fences, plus the handicapper has not been kind – a mark of 153 means he’s a whopping 19 pounds higher than when winning at Cheltenham.

Also sure to be popular Cappa Bleu lines up for Vale Of Glamorgan trained Evan Williams, aiming to become the first Welsh trainer National winner since 1905!

He’s a lovely jumper and has a definite chance, but whether or not he’ll stay is the burning question…

Ireland’s champion trainer Willie Mullins fires three shots in a bid to win the race again following Hedgehunter’s win back in 2005, and Thyestes winner On His Own looks to be the one the stable rate as their best opportunity given that he’s the choice of Ruby Walsh.

A lack of experience and some occasionally haphazard jumping are off-putting though, and Ruby will have to be at his brilliant best to guide him home in front.

In choosing On His Own Ruby Walsh also turned down the mount on his family’s horse Seabass, so that has to be a clue as to his likely chances, while Pricewise Tom Segal suggested Treacle as a big priced alternative when interviewed by Gary Wiltshire on BBC2 on Thursday afternoon.

Unfortunately, like Junior he’s facing a pretty stiff mark (145), while there hasn’t been a winner older than 10 years of age since Amberleigh House in 2004.

It’s also not entirely clear how his jumping will hold up over the big fences given how he struggled in that department when faced with the Mildmay course back in October.

So if it isn’t to be any of the big guns, we can concentrate on trying to find one at fancy odds to try and cause something of a shock.

Trained at Larne in County Antrim over in Northern Ireland my suggestion for the winner of the 2012 John Smith’s Grand National is a 20/1 shot in the shape of trainer Stuart Crawford’s 10-year-old Presenting gelding KILLYGLEN, a tough as nails sort who displayed the benefit of a wind operation to win his prep run at Down Royal with ease.

Although sent off an unconsidered 66/1 shot in this race a year ago he was travelling with real menace and staying on strongly when he fell four fences from home, and with that experience under his belt plus a lower mark and indeed a lower racing weight 12 months on, I really fancy him to be involved at the business end of the race.

You get the impression his trainer knows exactly what he’s got up his sleeve given that rather than risk his handicap mark (141) he chose to campaign him almost exclusively over hurdles this season, giving him just one run over the larger obstacles at Haydock in November prior to the framing of the National weights.

Crawford’s patience has certainly paid dividends – his pride and joy arrives here fit as a fiddle with a lovely racing weight of just 10 stone four pounds.

His age group have won four of the last six runnings of the race, jockey Robbie Power already has a National to his name courtesy of 33/1 shot Silver Birch back in 2007, and he has been trained to the minute for another assault on this huge prize.

The drying ground will hold no fears for Killyglen, and given how well he was travelling when coming to grief in 2011 we can be confident the petrol light won’t be flickering on empty if he can reach the elbow in touch with the leaders.

Killyglen can be backed for National glory at 20/1 with Coral, although I must also say hats off to Gibraltar-based firm BetVictor who are the only firm going out on a limb offering six places to each way punters.

Needless to say they’ve had to tighten up their margins accordingly, but their 14/1 each way is a fair offer given that you’ll be paid out down to sixth.

Good luck!

Tom Lee’s 2012 John Smith’s Grand National tip: 27 Killyglen (each way) @ 20/1 Coral/@ 14/1 BetVictor (1/4 odds 1-2-3-4-5-6)

View the complete list of all 40 Runners for the Grand National together with previews and best odds