Archive for the ‘ Horse Racing ’ Category

11 Oct
2008

Something for the weekend…

Fresh as a Parisian tramp’s socks after a blinding couple of days in the French capital, thoughts turn to the end of one season and the start of another, and a host of opportunities to cash in this weekend.

But first a couple of talking points from the weekend just gone: how wrong were we to doubt Zarkava? A genuine superstar who quite rightly raised the roof at Longchamp. Facing the older horses, a temperamental madamoiselle, up against the colts, more traffic problems than Garstang in rush hour? No sweat. She deserved every ounce of our appreciation.

Is Grand Criterium winner Naqoos really a Guineas contender? To me, even the 14/1 on offer with Paddy Power, Totesport and William Hill looks worse value than the €10 a pint Kronenbourg on offer in every Paris boozer. He did seriously well to claim a rare front-running win on a hold-up specialists weekend, but I don’t see this fella getting the trip on the peripherique, let alone the Rowley Mile.

Finally, why do all French bar staff insist on serving you ¾ of a pint of lager topped off with two inches of froth. I want a pint, not a cappuccino. Come back the Lion & Railway, all is forgiven.

Looking forward to this weekend and one future Classic contender who does merit serious consideration is Michael Jarvis’s Kite Wood, who can continue where he left off when justifying weighty market support at Doncaster four weeks ago, by taking Ascot’s Group 3 Deloitte Autumn Stakes. Derby entry Kite Wood, a son of Galileo and available at best odds of 25/1 with VCBet for Epsom ’09, did me plenty of favours when knuckling down to get the better of a decent field at Town Moor, and he certainly appreciated the step up to a mile after a promising debut in a Leicester maiden over 7f. This is another significant step for Jarvis’s charge, but the word is he can get his name on the scoresheet before hanging up his boots for the winter.

Elsewhere on the Flat, there’s a belting looking card north of the border at Musselburgh, transferred from York whilst the drains which will prevent another Ebor washout are installed on the Knavesmire. The undoubted highlight of which is the National Express York Sprint Cup, run over the minimum distance, and likely to favour those experienced horses who don’t mind the rough and tumble of the big field handicaps.

Step forward Siren’s Gift, third in the Portland in first time blinkers, a race she would have had sewn up had it been run over 5f, second in Newmarket’s Rous Stakes, and now gunning for a victory which would cap a fine campaign. Champion apprentice-elect David Probert is cracking value for his 5lb claim, and with the blinds milking further improvement she can go one better in the Musselburgh feature; definitely some each way value to be had.

Meanwhile over the sticks this weekend’s Chepstow fixture is always one I look forward to, not least as it signals a long overdue return of stacks of quality jump racing. Bring it on.

The big battalions are making their first tender steps towards some gaff in Gloucestershire, and there’s early season value to be snapped up. Not least in the Call House @ williamhillbingo.com Juvenile Novices’ Hurdle where Tuanku can overcome a penalty picked up for a fluent winning debut at Plumpton three weeks ago. Fit from the Flat his aptitude for the hurdling game was there for all to see at the Sussex track, and Chepstow’s galloping circuit will be right up his street.

Over the larger obstacles, Tolworth Hurdle winner Breedsbreeze makes his chasing debut in Bangor’s Anderson & Co. Solicitors Bright Future Novices’ Chase, and the vibes from Ditcheat suggest he could be a star over fences. Paul Nicholls has chosen to start him off over 2m 4½f, and unsurprisingly he’s currently on offer at just 20/1 with Paddypower.com for the Arkle Chase as well as 25/1 for the Royal & SunAlliance, both at the 2009 Cheltenham Festival. A winning debut beckons.

This weekend’s best bets:

3.15 Musselburgh back 8 Siren’s Gift (ew)

3.30 back 4 Kite Wood

3.40 Chepstow back 1 Tuanku

4.00 Bangor back 3 Breedsbreeze

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Posted 9 years, 1 month ago

08 Oct
2008

Dubai Echo Looks a Good Bet in Nottingham Maiden

The Sir Michael Stoute trianed Duabi Echo looks a good bet in the 3:10 at Nottingham on Wednesday afternoon. Connections believe that is ready to win on only its second racecourse appearance Sir Michael boasts an impressive 33% strike rate with his 2 year olds at Nottingham in recent years and we are hopeful that this Colt (who already holds an entry in next year’s Irish 2000 Guineas) can continue the trend. bet365 are offering best odds of 5/4 on this horse and also offer best odds guaranteed on all races in the unlikely event that the SP is bigger than the board price.

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Posted 9 years, 1 month ago

03 Oct
2008

Wajaha fancied in Newmarket Maiden

The John Gosden trained Wajaha head the betting in the 3:45 at Newmarket on Friday afternoon. This unraced filly is the favourite in the Nunnery Stud EBF Nursey Stakes and the word from her stable is that she has working like she could turn out to be a potentially very nice horse. The best odds on her winning her debut on Friday morning are 5/2 with Bet365 and it would be no surprise to see those odds shorten before the off.

Tom’s Tip of the Day – Friday 3rd October
3:45 Newmarket – Wajaha

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Posted 9 years, 1 month ago

03 Oct
2008

Cambridgeshire and Arc De Triomphe betting top the bill

I was delighted when the Betting Directory team invited me to have a weekly look at the best of the weekend’s racing action, and over the coming months let’s try and find a winner or two as the Flat season reaches its climax and the new Jumping campaign moves through the gears.

What a weekend it is to get started!

The bookmakers fear a bashing of 1997 proportions when Pasternak and Peintre Celebre landed a Cambridgeshire/Arc De Triomphe big race favourites double, and they’re keeping everything crossed that it won‘t be more of the same over the next 48 hours.

We’ll kick-off with the totesport.com Cambridgeshire, where Luca Cumani’s Swop has been popular since the defection of stablemate Presvis.

Trained to the minute this lightly raced five-year-old has never been out of the frame in five racecourse appearances, but at a general current price of 13/2 in a field of 35, and jumping from stall 2 (100/1 rag Spanish Don is the only horse to win from a single-figure draw in the last decade), it could pay to shop around.

Masters Of Arts is another who will also be in-demand as punters seize upon the opportunity to back an improver from the stable of the handicap king Sir Mark Prescott, successful in the Cambridgeshire in 1988 with Quinlan Terry, 1997 with Pasternak and in 2003 with Chivalry. Ladbrokes currently offer the best odds at 16/1.

They were going loco for Premio Loco wen he sluiced up at Kempton last time, but he’s a highly strung type who could well boil over on his big day

Whoever prevails will need plenty of luck in-running, and one candidate who especially appeals to me is the streetwise three-year-old Yaddree for the Michael Jarvis team.

Carrying a 4lb penalty for beating a 115-rated rival in a cracker at Newbury a fortnight ago, when he returned from a break which clearly did him the world of good, this sturdy son of Singspiel has no stamina doubts and will love the ground.

He put in a couple of cracking efforts at Ascot earlier in the season, and also got his nose in front over a mile at Newmarket in May.

What’s more the word on the street is that Yaddree, generally a 10/1 shot with with most bookmakers, is working the house down to the delight of his shrewd trainer.

Of the bigger priced contenders Sir Michael Stoute could well snag some place money with Lang Shining who could well be over-priced at 25/1 with Coral, and is my idea of an each way saver at a value price.
Off the boil since running a fine second to Mia’s Boy (who re-opposes) in the Hambleton Stakes at York in May, Lang Shining (drawn somewhere in deepest Cambridgeshire in 35) was back to something like his old self when a fine second to Ask The Butler at Sandown Park last time over 1m 2f.

The handicapper responded accordingly, slapping the Stoute inmate with a 6lb rise in the weights, but with Ryan Moore up top he could well make the frame at an inflated price.

As ever, shop around to make the best of the firms prepared to pay you those crucial extra places in the big field handicaps, it all helps!

Earlier on the card the Kingdom Of Bahrain Sun Chariot Stakes should provide the ideal platform for French raider Darjina to smash a run of seconds.

She had Paco Boy (favourite for the Prix de la Foret) and dual Guineas winner Henrythenavigator in her wake when chasing home Goldikova in Longchamp’s Prix Du Moulin last time out, and with Lush Lashes by-passing the race in favour of the Opera, Alain de Royer-Dupre’s filly can get on the scoresheet here at forecast odds of around 9/4.

By the time they’re run the Cambridgeshire my thoughts will be turning to Pastiche, the Paris-Mutuel, praying the Eurostar isn’t delayed for too long, and of course the Qatar Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe.

There are many finer things in life than benefitting from Paris’s brilliant free Metro system, a slap-up breakfast in the Café de Cambronne, and a sun-drenched stroll down the Bois de Boulogne to enjoy a stellar afternoon’s racing simply crammed with Group 1’s.

The gobby turfistes and the rowdy Brits, all desperate to walk out of there in a few hours time, heads held high having got a few in the net against ‘them’.

If you’ve never been, the advice is simple; go. Don’t bother packing your drinking legs, you’d be better advised to take along a reservoir-cum-septic tank.

Anyway, back to the racing, and a feature race dripping with high-class challengers, and the potential to be the best Arc for years.

A devastating performance in Longchamp’s Prix Vermeille three weeks ago saw Zarkava rocket to the front of the market, and with several firms reporting four and five figure bets in recent days, it’s easy to see why the Aga Khan’s filly has set tongues wagging.

Unbeaten in six races, having also landed the Prix de Diane and the Poule d’Essai des Pouliches earlier this season, Zarkava boasts a tall reputation, but nonetheless I’m keen to take her on.

Sure she might turn out to be a superstar, but I’d rather spend my wedding night under a Liverpool FC duvet cover than spend my last few quid on a filly as short as 7/4 with Paddypower, when you stop to consider the following:

Much has been made of the way she dwelt in the stalls in the Vermeille, losing an estimated 6 lengths at the start, then racing lazily in the early stages, before recovering to record a visually impressive victory.

Racing against both the colts and the older horses for the first time she simply won’t get time to play the fool or doze off against these classy opponents.

Furthermore, Willie Carson made a good point on the BBC last weekend; is something causing to react? Is she in some sort of physical pain or discomfort throughout the race? Have a look at the replays of the Vermeille and watch her tail carriage. He might have a point, and if she did have say a back problem niggling her, it doesn’t bode well.

Count also the fact that only two fillies (All Along 1983 and Urban Sea 1993) in 25 years have been successful in the Arc, and it might pay to have a good scour through the opposition.

For me she’s a lay at the price on Betfair .

The forecast rain will definitely benefit Soldier Of Fortune, but it will hinder Ballydoyle stablemate Duke Of Marmalade, off the back of a gruelling campaign which has already yielded five Group 1 wins.

However, Soldier Of Fortune wasn’t good enough in this race last year, and also had to give best to Youmzain in the Grand Prix de Saint-Cloud on his last appearance back in June.

Youmzain must have another great each way chance, but the decision by connections to replace Richard Hughes, described by Luca Cumani earlier this week as “riding like a demon” with Richard Hills is baffling, and can’t improve the likeable five-year-old’s chances. 

The one I think we should be having a few quid on is another of the trials winners Vision D’Etat. Also unbeaten in six starts and also a three-year-old, the stats surrounding Prix Niel runners in the Arc are compelling, indeed they’ve provided the winner a whopping 10 of the last 13 times Niel participants have gone on to contest the October showpiece.

And here’s another stat for you: three-year olds have provided 11 of the last 14 winners. Fancy a bit of 8/1 each way? Snap it up before it’s gone with any of VCBet, Ladbrokes.com and Bet365.

Our selection won the French Derby, enjoyed a bit of summer holiday and was then bought back to concert pitch to take the Niel. A bargain buy at €39,000, Vision D’Etat is a half brother to Milan Deux Mille. Yep, the same one who finished 15th and last in this year’s Grand National! But don’t let that put you off.

While you’re at it take a bit of insurance out and have a fiver each way on Papal Bull. Jimmy Fortune could be in for quite a weekend with rides in Canada and France, and he’s come in for a juicy spare ride on a talented but quirky customer who put the wind up Duke Of Marmalade in the King George, and could well be the type to run into a place at a big price.

Elsewhere on the card, don’t go to the fridge until you’ve had a close look at Andre Fabre’s filly Treat Gently in the Prix de l’Opera. She put in a great shift in the Vermeille, and could reward each way backers at a tasty price.

Finally, if you’ve got a few quid to play up from the weekend, have a bit each way on Mount Helicon for the Triumph Hurdle. Word reaches me that the French import, twice a winner on the Flat, could be a bit handy, and at 33/1 with Stan James he could be a handy investment to file away as we countdown the winter months to the Cheltenham Festival.

Good Luck!
Tom Lee

This week’s advice

Saturday 4th October
3.15 Newmarket – back Darjina to win
3.50 Newmarket – back  Yaddree (e/w)
3.50 Newmarket – back  Lang Shining (e/w)

Sunday 5th october
3.00 Longchamp back Treat Gently (e/w)
3.40 Longchamp back Vision D’Etat (e/w)
3.40 Loncchamp back Papal Bull (e/w)

Antepost
Triump Hurdle back Mount Helicon (e/w 33/1)

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Posted 9 years, 1 month ago

02 Oct
2008

Prohibition should go well on debut

The opening race of the three day Newmarket Cambridgeshire is the 1 mile, European Fund Breeders Maiden stakes, in which we fancy the Willie Haggas trained Prohibition to make a promising debut. This son of Danehill Dancer makes his racecourse debut in this competitive looking field but his stable hold him in high regard and expect him to start his career on the right foot. He may have his work cut out against the favourite, Alhaque, but at 11/2, he is certainly worth an each way bet.

Tom’s Tip of the day
Prohibition Each-Way at 11/2 with Paddypower

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Posted 9 years, 1 month ago

01 Oct
2008

Steve Junior fancied for Kempton Nursey

Steve Junior is the tip for Wednesday 1st October. The Peter Chapple-Hyam 2 year old is making only his third appearance on a racecourse but showed plenty of ability when winning at Wolverhampton last time and now makes his handicap debut off a mark that he is potentially much better than. The morning odds of 11/10 with Bet365 represents good value as the price is expected to get shorter.

Tom’s Tip of the day
Steve Junior 11/10 with Bet365

Result – Won

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Posted 9 years, 1 month ago

31 Jul
2008

Galway Festival Tips

Ireland’s most popular racing festival is a unique meeting that in the past has not always attracted the very best horses but always attracts the very best of atmospheres. These days however with outstanding media coverage the festival is really being placed on the race map and is offering ever increasing prize money. So much so that in 2008 saw more horse than ever travelling over, successfully from the UK. Indeed Paul Nicholls, the top trainer from the UK sent over Oslot last year to win the Galway Plate and has set a trend for the future. Any Paul Nicholls horse racing tips are therefore is worth considering at the Festival, particularly if he is aiming at one of the feature races.

The top trainer and a man always to follow at the Festival is of course, Dermot Weld. He has saddled over 200 winners at the festival and always has a crop of horses that he trains specifically for the meeting.

Other trainers with outstanding records are Tony Martin, Mick Halford, John Oxx and Noel Meade. All these trainers will have horses that are certain to run well and ought to be followed avidly. Top jumps jockey last year was Ruby Walsh, who had the luxury of riding the horses from Nicholls plus a good crop of the best from others. He is a good bet to be top jumps jockey again in 2009. Pat Smullen always performs well at the meeting and won top flat jockey last year. However it should be remembered that the Galway Festival clashes with Glorious Goodwood meaning that some of the top flat jockeys are absent from Galway.

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Posted 9 years, 3 months ago

30 Jul
2008

Glorious Goodwood Races Tips

As one of the feature race meetings of the UK season, Glorious Goodwood has very similar tipping criteria to that of Royal Ascot, as many of the runners perform at both meetings.

It is a good meeting however for favourite backers, where there is approximately a 30% strike rate. In fact for Stakes races for four year olds and above there is something like a 40% strike rate. Unfortunately many of the favourites are very short priced so profit margins are not anywhere near as good as Royal Ascot. In fact for best profits at Glorious Goodwood, punters should look at the 3yo Handicaps; these show a distinct profit.

Trainers who have most winners are Richard Hannon, John Gosden, Mick Channon, Mark Johnston and Saeed Bin Suroor and more recently Aiden O’Brien. All six of these trainers have excellent strike rates at the meeting. Bin Suroor of Godolphin has a particularly high strike rate of 27%. Best trainer for profit with online bookmakers however is Brian Smart who horses have shown a profit of well over 100%.

Top jockey, unsurprisingly is Frankie Dettori but despite having most winners and best strike rate, he is not necessarily profitable. William Buick in fact the claimer has best profit mark but he will be losing his claim any time soon.

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Posted 9 years, 3 months ago

09 Jun
2008

Royal Ascot Betting Tips

Over the last few years there has been a significant increase in the number of runners at Royal Ascot. This increase has made this meeting harder to find winners. The field sizes are larger and the races more competitive and speed rating compilers find it hard to separate their top rated selections. Nonetheless we have put together some facts that will be helpful.

If the meeting is so hard for finding winners then we would not expect many favourites to win. Although favourites here only win 27% of the time they have actually made a small profit of 2%. Second favourites have done even better.

Whilst it would be impressive to find a big outside winner the chances of you picking one are remote. Outsiders account for 43% of the total number of runners, yet only 2% of them win. Also horses that are turned out quickly within 7 days do really badly at Royal Ascot races and have a strike rate of only 3%. These are ones to avoid at all costs.

In essence there is a good case for betting favourites at this meeting, but probably a stronger argument is to back second favourites. Outsiders are not generally good best; sure there will be a few but remember there will also be about 200 of them running. It is the weight of money that determines the horse racing odds but it is possible to make money betting on the favourites. If you had bet the favourite in every race over the past 8 years you would have only had three winning years but would have made a slight profit overall. The best statistic for favourite backers is to bet on three year old only races where favourites have a 46% strike rate.

Trainers to follow closely at Royal Ascot are Aiden O’Brien, Mark Johnston, Henry Cecil, Sir Michael Stoute and Saeed Bin Surror. Best jockeys of recent times have been Johnny Murtagh, Frankie Dettori, Ryan Moore and Jamie Spencer.

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Posted 9 years, 5 months ago

01 Jun
2008

Epsom Derby Tips

The ideal Deby tip is for a horse that has fitted the profile of the majority of past winners and the pointers will assist you making a selection in the betting odds. The information is taken from the alst fifteen Derby winners.

Winning 2 year old form is vital in assessing a potential winner. Fourteen Derby winners won over either seven furlongs or a.

Looking for a big-priced winner is not advised although High-Rise at 20/1 did win in 1998 but is the exception and was the only winner that came from outside the top six in the betting. The last nine winners have returned to the winners enclosure at 7-1 or shorter.

Thirteen Epsom Derby winners had already won at either Listed or Group level and Eleven of the last twelve won at that level and over at least a mile-and-a-quarter in their Classic year.

It has been a trend that the less exposed colts were the likley winners. A colt with three to five runs at group level over a mile tend to be where the winner we will be found.

Our best horse racing betting tips are to follow horses who have won either Dante Stakes, that has produced five winners, Derrinstown Stakes in Ireland has found three winners, and the Dee Stakes has found two winners last time out.

Last years winner New Approach is exceptional he had raced seven times and had not been any further than a mile, but he does not fit the normal winner profile, proving that the trends are not always accurate.

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Posted 9 years, 5 months ago