Archive for the ‘ Flat ’ Category

06 Nov
2008

Cox & Drowne can Electrify Town Moor

It’s full steam ahead for Donny and the last day of the Flat this weekend, and punters up and down the land are busy trying to work out the puzzle which is the Tote scoop6 November Handicap.

A fair conundrum it is too, but in Clive Cox’s ultra-progressive three-year-old Electrolyser I’ve got a strong suspicion we’ve unearthed the horse to light up Town Moor at 3.10pm on Saturday afternoon.

Word reaches me from the depths of Lambourn that the lightly raced youngster is bang in form to continue the upward curve that saw him win with a bit in hand on his first try at a mile and a half at Leicester, and he had some good animals in behind that day.

This striking grey colt, a son of the great Daylami no less, who has produced some cracking three-year-olds, can take this big pot on only his fifth start, at a general price of 6/1 including Paddypower and Ladbrokes.

Drawn well in gate 15 he relishes some give underfoot, which is a good thing as the weather forecast says it’ll be tipping it down in South Yorkshire come Saturday.

What’s more our selection sneaked into the race by the skin of his teeth at the very foot of the weights with a meagre 8st 7lb to shoulder.

The excellent Steve Drowne takes the ride, which reminds me that a year ago on the corresponding Friday night I looked on in admiration as across our table as said jockey piled in, consuming his own body weight in grub in Donny’s best Italian restaurant.

Maybe best lay off the nosebag this year though, he had to do 9st 4lb in the big race on Heron Bay in 2007!

The stats are pretty handy too with three-year-olds taking five of the last nine runnings, and a double figure berth responsible for eight of the last 10 winners.

His trainer is upbeat about his chances too:

“I am pleased with the progress he has made throughout this season. He’s quite lightly raced in comparison to some of the other horses entered but I don’t think it will be a problem. Pippa Greene won the same Leicester race as Electrolyser last season and she had a similar profile when she was sent off favourite for last year’s November Handicap.
“He’s definitely progressive and he’s going there in excellent form. There was plenty of give in the give in the ground at Leicester and I think he’s a better on a softer surface. I am confident that he will give a good account of himself.”

The other one in the field who appeals for each way purposes at a tempting 14/1 is Amanda Perrett’s Night Crescendo – I’ll be having an each way saver as the never-say-die fiver-year-old made the frame at a whopping 50/1 off an identical mark of 94 a year ago.

He’s forgotten how to lose since being fitted with cheekpieces by his clued up handler, and it’d be no surprise to see him in the shake up at the business end of the race.

Expect him to be right up there mixing it from the start, and it would be a fitting end to a great campaign for talented pilot Jim Crowley if he were to nick this one.

Tom’s November Handicap Tips
3:10 Doncaster (Saturday) Electrolyser to win @ 6/1
3:10 Doncaster (Saturday) Night Crescendo each way @ 14/1

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Posted 9 years ago

06 Nov
2008

Look Out for the Invisible Man at Great Leighs

The word coming out of Newmarket is that John Gosden has got a very useful two year old prospect on his hands in the form of Invisible Man, with a few shrewdies already sniffing around for prices for the 2009 Epsom Derby.

He makes his racecourse debut in the 8:20 at Great Leighs tonight, and his short price (6/4 at the time of writing) reflects the fact we expect him to get off to a winning start.

You could also do worse than ring up your chosen layer and ask for a few shillings each way for next June at 66/1.

I just can’t see this getting beat!

Don’t forget, Paddypower offer best odds guaranteed on all races so if backing Invisible Man, be sure to take the early price. Plus all new customers can claim a £30 Free Bet

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Posted 9 years ago

03 Nov
2008

Stick With Septimus For Melbourne Cup Profit

The battle for Melbourne Cup favouritism has become as fierce as ever as the big race draws ever closer. Long term antepost favourite, Septimus, has been the subject to a market drift on Monday following concerns from Irish trainer, Aidan O’Brien, over the state of the Flemington ground, fearing that it could possibly be too firm for the son of Saddler’s Wells. As a result, it is another Northern Hemisphere Raider in the form of the Luca Cumani trained Mad Rush that has joined Septimus at the top of the betting. Both are generally available at 4/1 with most major Bookmakers with the Ballydoyle representative a best price 9/2 with Sportingbet and Stan James.

Despite the fears over the ground, Septimus still remains the class horse in the field and will take all the beating. If O’Brien does decide to run him, we must trust his judgement and believe that he has a great chance of winning and defying top weight.

Should Septimus not get the run then it may well be worth siding with another Irish runner in Profound Beauty, who has come in for plenty of noteworthy support in the last few days. Trained by two times winning Melbourne Cup trainer, Dermot Weld (most recently in 2002 with Media Puzzle), this filly can take advantage of the weights to end a progressive season in fine style.

Melbourne Cup Tips

Septimus (with a run) to win 9/2 @ Stan James.com – Free £25 Bet
Profound Beauty each way @ 8/1 with – Ladbrokes Free £25 bet

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Posted 9 years ago

31 Oct
2008

Labisa Has Great Chance at Wolverhampton

There’s some value to be had in the fillies’ maiden run over the extended mile at Wolverhampton this evening where Hughie Morrison’s well-bred youngster Labisa can make the frame at the third time of asking.

She showed some improvement in a much more competitive race at Donny last time, and if taking to the surface will be an each way bet to nothing, with the 6/1 on offer with Ladbrokes worth an interest to get the weekend off to a healthy start.

The stable are in good nick & the word from within is that this daughter og High Chaparral can continue the trend.

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Posted 9 years ago

24 Oct
2008

Breeders Cup Preview

What a weekend in store! Top class racing of every discipline everywhere you look, and punters with an eye on the European invasion of the Breeders’ Cup will be itching to get started later on Friday night.

The big antepost gamble of the meeting so far has seen Bobby Frankel’s Ventura halved in price by all the firms over the last couple of days (generally 5/1 from 10/1 but as short as 7/2 in places) for Friday evening’s Filly & Mare Sprint, and her speed played late on could well put the bookmakers 1-0 down, but we’ll wait for Saturday for a couple of decent chances:

One of those is US Ranger, sent over by Aidan O’Brien for the Breeders’ Cup Mile (8.15pm Saturday) and each-way at 12/1 with bet365 and Blue Square (bigger on the American Tote) he can make the frame at a tasty price.

Obvious dangers include French-trained short-priced jolly Goldikova, winner of her last three after twice running into the roadblock which is Zarkava, plus last year’s winner Kip Deville, but at their likely short prices we’ll shop elsewhere.

As I mentioned above US Ranger will go off at a monster price on the American Tote, so it may pay to wait and take the local price as year-on-year we see the ‘away team’ available at hugely inflated odds.

What’s in his favour? He might be tricky to win with, but he’s been knocking on the door in a heap of top races, and could well appreciate the step up in trip on a track that could bring out the best of him, with tight bends and an emphasis on a speed finish which could well see the four-year-old son of Danzig in the shake-up.

Also on the Turf track Eagle Mountain can give South African master trainer Mike de Kock a long overdue Breeders’ Cup success in the aptly named Breeders’ Cup Turf (11pm Sat); out injured for 12 months after running second to Literato in the 2007 Champion Stakes, he bounced back on his first run for de Kock at the first time of asking at Newmarket’s Cambridgeshire meeting to take the Group 3 Joel Stakes.

The word is that winning re-appearance has done him a world of good, and at a standout 6/1 he rates a cracking each-way prospect with Ladbrokes.

A quick word about the all-weather surface: Santa Anita’s synthetic ‘Pro-Ride’ track is likely to ride on the fast side, and we should see a successful trip for several European raiders, with underfoot conditions likely to inconvenience many of them far less than the dirt they would otherwise have encountered.

The chief beneficiary of which could be Henrythenavigator. The Breeders’ Cup Classic (11.45pm) looks set to be a corker, and he can punish a generous quote of 8/1 from both Blue Square and Sporting Bet.

A four-time Group 1 winner including both the English and Irish Guineas, St James’s Palace and Sussex Stakes in consecutive races, the obvious concern is he has never raced over further than a mile, but let’s not forget it wasn’t many moons ago he was being talked about as a potential Derby horse, and the race could be run to suit.

He loves firm ground, and sees his races out like a runaway train, and in my book ‘Henry’ looks a far more attractive each-way investment at the current prices than reigning champ Curlin, who has looked as if his ‘powers’ could be on the wane in recent appearances.
The stats are miserable for horses returning to the race after having previously been placed in it, and we’ll row in with ‘Henry’ at a value price to at least make the frame.

Breeders Cup Tips

Breeders Cup Mile Odds Comparison – US Ranger (each-way).
Live Breeders Cup Turf Betting Odds – Eagle Mountain (each-way).
Latest Breeders Cup Classic Odds – Henrythenavigator (each-way).

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Posted 9 years ago

17 Oct
2008

Laddies Poker Two Not Expected to be a Flop at Newmarket

Laddies Poker Two is the bet of the day on the opening day of the two day Championship Meeting at Newmarket. This three year old filly owned by bookmaker Ladbrokes has made an impressive start to her racing career and particularly impressed at Ascot last time out, where her win suggest she has more to offer. She is a best price 6/4 with Paddy Power to win the 4:20 and is well worth a bet.

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Posted 9 years, 1 month ago

17 Oct
2008

Russian Cross Looks Just Champion

While Rip van Winkle looks a good thing in the Dewhurst, anyone looking for a bit of value to oppose a short priced jolly might be better off holding on for half an hour or so, for the Group 1 Emirates Airline Champion Stakes, where Derby winner New Approach guns for his third Group 1 in just four starts.

What concerns me is his inability to settle, his apparent preference for a mile and a half, and the fact he was certainly no more than workmanlike in seeing off 50/1 rag Traffic Guard (who re-opposes) in the Irish Champion last time.

Sure he is the one they’ve got to beat, but for those reasons I’ll be shopping elsewhere, and pinning my hopes on the French hoisting the tricolore above the Rowley Mile by taking the prize home for the third year running with Andre’s Fabre’s classy three-year-old Russian Cross.

At best odds of 9/2 with Ladbrokes, the form of Russian Cross’s latest racecourse appearance, second in a Group 3 at Longchamp, has worked out well, with the third that day Trincot being sent out to win the Prix Dollar back at the Parisian track on Arc weekend.

Les Francais took this in 2006 with Pride and 12 months ago with Literato, and it was Literato who pleasingly bagged the very same Deauville Group race won in emphatic style by Russian Cross en-route to the Champion Stakes prize.

It’s also worth pointing out that Russian Cross, never out of the first two in six appearances, had re-opposing rivals City Leader (3rd) & Twice Over (7th) in rear at Deuville.

Newmarket Saturday 18th October – Emirates Champion Stakes Tip
Russian Cross 9/2 with Ladbrokes.com – £25 Free Bet

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Posted 9 years, 1 month ago

17 Oct
2008

O’Brien Looks Primed to Rip Apart Dewhurst Rivals

It’s all systems go for the penultimate big weekend of the domestic Flat season, and with HQ preparing to stage a cracking Champions Day card, it’s no surprise to see Rip Van Winkle a warm order favourite to give trainer Aidan O’Brien yet another Group 1 success in the Dewhurst.

While there’s no doubt this son of Galileo needs to improve on what we’ve seen in two unbeaten starts at the Curragh & Leopardstown, the vibes from Ballydoyle are that this is among the very best of their crop of youngsters, and will be a key player in their assault on the 2009 Classics.

Rock Of Gibraltar won this event for O’Brien in 2001, and the firms are understandably trying to dodge the bullet this time around, with Coral offering 11/8, the best in the village about Rip Van Winkle emulating that feat at the time of writing.

Factor in the doubts about some of his major rivals for Saturday’s contest, and the argument for an investment becomes all the more compelling, although I’ll also be keeping an eye on Brian Meehan’s Delegator, known to have been working like a massively improved horse since winning at Newmarket, and I’ll be angling to milk a bit more profit from the race with a reverse forecast to provide a bit of insurance.

Dewhurst Stakes Tip
Rip Van Winkle to win With Coral
Rip Van Winkle and Delegator Reversed Forecast

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Posted 9 years, 1 month ago

11 Oct
2008

Something for the weekend…

Fresh as a Parisian tramp’s socks after a blinding couple of days in the French capital, thoughts turn to the end of one season and the start of another, and a host of opportunities to cash in this weekend.

But first a couple of talking points from the weekend just gone: how wrong were we to doubt Zarkava? A genuine superstar who quite rightly raised the roof at Longchamp. Facing the older horses, a temperamental madamoiselle, up against the colts, more traffic problems than Garstang in rush hour? No sweat. She deserved every ounce of our appreciation.

Is Grand Criterium winner Naqoos really a Guineas contender? To me, even the 14/1 on offer with Paddy Power, Totesport and William Hill looks worse value than the €10 a pint Kronenbourg on offer in every Paris boozer. He did seriously well to claim a rare front-running win on a hold-up specialists weekend, but I don’t see this fella getting the trip on the peripherique, let alone the Rowley Mile.

Finally, why do all French bar staff insist on serving you ¾ of a pint of lager topped off with two inches of froth. I want a pint, not a cappuccino. Come back the Lion & Railway, all is forgiven.

Looking forward to this weekend and one future Classic contender who does merit serious consideration is Michael Jarvis’s Kite Wood, who can continue where he left off when justifying weighty market support at Doncaster four weeks ago, by taking Ascot’s Group 3 Deloitte Autumn Stakes. Derby entry Kite Wood, a son of Galileo and available at best odds of 25/1 with VCBet for Epsom ’09, did me plenty of favours when knuckling down to get the better of a decent field at Town Moor, and he certainly appreciated the step up to a mile after a promising debut in a Leicester maiden over 7f. This is another significant step for Jarvis’s charge, but the word is he can get his name on the scoresheet before hanging up his boots for the winter.

Elsewhere on the Flat, there’s a belting looking card north of the border at Musselburgh, transferred from York whilst the drains which will prevent another Ebor washout are installed on the Knavesmire. The undoubted highlight of which is the National Express York Sprint Cup, run over the minimum distance, and likely to favour those experienced horses who don’t mind the rough and tumble of the big field handicaps.

Step forward Siren’s Gift, third in the Portland in first time blinkers, a race she would have had sewn up had it been run over 5f, second in Newmarket’s Rous Stakes, and now gunning for a victory which would cap a fine campaign. Champion apprentice-elect David Probert is cracking value for his 5lb claim, and with the blinds milking further improvement she can go one better in the Musselburgh feature; definitely some each way value to be had.

Meanwhile over the sticks this weekend’s Chepstow fixture is always one I look forward to, not least as it signals a long overdue return of stacks of quality jump racing. Bring it on.

The big battalions are making their first tender steps towards some gaff in Gloucestershire, and there’s early season value to be snapped up. Not least in the Call House @ williamhillbingo.com Juvenile Novices’ Hurdle where Tuanku can overcome a penalty picked up for a fluent winning debut at Plumpton three weeks ago. Fit from the Flat his aptitude for the hurdling game was there for all to see at the Sussex track, and Chepstow’s galloping circuit will be right up his street.

Over the larger obstacles, Tolworth Hurdle winner Breedsbreeze makes his chasing debut in Bangor’s Anderson & Co. Solicitors Bright Future Novices’ Chase, and the vibes from Ditcheat suggest he could be a star over fences. Paul Nicholls has chosen to start him off over 2m 4½f, and unsurprisingly he’s currently on offer at just 20/1 with Paddypower.com for the Arkle Chase as well as 25/1 for the Royal & SunAlliance, both at the 2009 Cheltenham Festival. A winning debut beckons.

This weekend’s best bets:

3.15 Musselburgh back 8 Siren’s Gift (ew)

3.30 back 4 Kite Wood

3.40 Chepstow back 1 Tuanku

4.00 Bangor back 3 Breedsbreeze

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Posted 9 years, 1 month ago

08 Oct
2008

Dubai Echo Looks a Good Bet in Nottingham Maiden

The Sir Michael Stoute trianed Duabi Echo looks a good bet in the 3:10 at Nottingham on Wednesday afternoon. Connections believe that is ready to win on only its second racecourse appearance Sir Michael boasts an impressive 33% strike rate with his 2 year olds at Nottingham in recent years and we are hopeful that this Colt (who already holds an entry in next year’s Irish 2000 Guineas) can continue the trend. bet365 are offering best odds of 5/4 on this horse and also offer best odds guaranteed on all races in the unlikely event that the SP is bigger than the board price.

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Posted 9 years, 1 month ago