What do Gungadu, Simon, Innox, Farmer Jack, Marlborough, La Landiere, Young Spartacus and Gloria Victis have in common?

They’re all Racing Post Chase winners from the last 10 runnings who’ve shouldered 11 stone or more to victory, and that statistic would be even more compelling if Nacarat had carried just a pound more last season.

This year’s renewal of this quality handicap should see a field of 13 head to post at 3.05pm on Saturday afternoon (live on Ch4), with Robert Alner’s Miss Mitch rated a doubtful starter at the time of writing.

Personally I’m very keen on the chances of David Pipe’s top notch nine year old Madison Du Berlais emulating the likes of Gungadu, Farmer Jack and Marlborough, all of whom defied a burden of 11st 12lb to take the Sunbury track’s February showpiece.

Historically this is also a race that favours those high in the betting, and our selection qualifies with ease, available at a best price 8/1 with Ladbrokes and William Hill, preceeded by only last year’s winner Nacarat, Fistral Beach and Kilcrea Castle.

One of only three course and distance winners in the field Madison is easily the class horse in the field and relishes this flat right handed track where a big weight rarely means you need to put a line through a horse’s chances. What’s more David Pipe tries blinkers on him for the first time, and these could eke out real improvement.

The firms are unanimous in making Nacarat favourite, but at around 3/1 I’d happily lay Tom George’s charge when you stop to consider he hasn’t exactly set the world alight since his 2009 win in this event.

Three runs this season haven’t exactly set the pulse racing, and he still finds himself marooned on an 11lb higher mark than this time last year. 

Then we’ve got the inexperienced  Fistral Beach, and you have to wonder what price he’d be were it not for the Paul Nicholls and Ruby Walsh combination behind him.

A winner at Kempton over 2m 5f on Lanzarote day he’d been incredibly frustrating to follow prior to that, and now steps up massively in class.

Racing from out of the weights by 4lbs this is only his fourth chase start and I’d be surprised if he can hit this lofty target, although to be fair if anyone can, Nicholls can.

Those of you into your surfing will know Fistral Beach near Newquay is one of Cornwall’s beat surfing destinations – ideal if you’re looking for somewhere to impress a cougar and get a tan into the bargain.

It’s a favoured holiday destination for my good mate John ‘Scouse Lobster’ Cruces, he of Talksport fame, so called because he returned from Fistral last year looking as if he’d been flame grilled after failing to apply sufficient Hawaiian Tropic Factor 800.
The other one pitching in there at the front of the market is Kilcrea Castle for Emma Lavelle and Jack Doyle, but he too isn’t too easy to win with, and I’m more than happy to put my faith in Madison Du Berlais each way as he attempts to gain his first win of the campaign.

Three races this season have seen him perform with credit when placed behind a certain Kauto Star in both the Betfair Chase and the King George, before a no show at Cheltenham on Trials day, but then he never performs at Cheltenham so don’t be too alarmed by that.

His finest hours came in the 2008 Hennessy and in a Kempton romp three months later in the Levy Board Chase, and despite his big weight I really fancy him dropping down to handicap company here.

Sticking with Kempton another horse who’s at the top of the weights and perhaps hasn’t been displaying his very best form of late is Gary Moore’s Numide, who’s been mixing hurdling with chasing of late, but could now be back off what appeals to me as a potentially winning mark of 130 over hurdles as he lines up in the Racing & Football Outlook Handicap Hurdle over 2m 5f at 1.30pm.

Considered good enough for a tilt at the Supreme Novices’ back in 2008 this fella seems to have been around forever, but in fact has only just turned seven, and I reckon he might very well gain the fourth win of his career over hurdles here.

Rated in excess of 100 on the Flat his high point came in the 2008 Greatwood when he put them to the sword up the Cheltenham hill, and although he hasn’t scored since then Moore has chosen to employ the services of his more that capable son Joshua, who claims a valuable 7lbs.

A smaller field than he’s encountered of late will mean less traffic to overcome if the pair execute his usual hold up tactics, and against some similarly out of form rivals I’d be disappointed if he doesn’t make the frame at least.

It seems to have become almost fashionable for teams to excuse themselves a poor domestic performance immediately after playing away in Europe in midweek, just ask a particularly lethargic Manchester United after they were soundly beaten at Everton last Saturday,

Liverpool will also have to do without the services of key defender Martin Skrtel who’s broken his right metatarsal. 
If Steven ‘Starfish’ Gerrard doesn’t miraculously collapse in the Balckburn penalty area at any stage then this could well be an afternoon of frustration for Rafa’s men, and at 1.39 to lay on Betfair I’m happy to take the risk and lay them at cramped odds.
Good luck!