Archive for the ‘ Market Movers ’ Category

14 Jun
2013

The Wait’s Nearly Over For Royal Ascot 2013

Racing and betting took a something of a back seat this week following the news of the passing of legendary trainer Sir Henry Cecil, but sport has a funny way of showing its respect for a departed hero, and it seemed entirely appropriate that Lady Cecil enjoyed a quickfire double courtesy of the stable’s runners Songbird and Morpheus on Thursday afternoon.

There’s sure to be a huge groundswell of support for the likes of Chigun and Noble Mission as they line up to represent the Newmarket stable at Royal Ascot next week, and a winner for the Warren House team would bring the house down.

With excitement levels building ahead of what promises to be a great five days (every race live on Channel 4), here’s an update on the headline market moves in the betting village:

Queen Anne Stakes

Animal Kingdom is no bigger than 8/11 from 5/4 for the opening contest of the meeting, and is described by a couple of the firms as “by far and away” their biggest antepost loser, this despite him dropping in trip and facing uncertainty about the weather, with Ladbrokes using the phrase “relentless” to relay their version of how the support has arrived for the Dubai World Cup winner.

In the same contest the each way mover has been John Gosden’s tough and consistent mare Elusive Kate.

She found her way onto a prominent tipping line earlier in the week, and her seen her price trimmed from 12’s into no bigger than 9/1 at the time of writing.

St James’s Palace Stakes

It’s surely no great surprise that money has arrived for rampant Guineas winner Dawn Approach now he’s been confirmed as firmly on course for this target.

Returning to a mile BetVictor cut him from 7/4 to 6/4 to repair his reputation after a no show in the Derby.

Royal Hunt Cup

Ladbrokes report cash for Ed Vaughan’s Dance And Dance, who was second in the Hunt Cup off 102 in 2011, but now races from a mark of 96.

He’s now a 14/1 poke having been 20/1 at the start of the week.

Gold Cup

Last but not least, the Queen’s Estimate looks to have stacks going for her in the Gold Cup, and is 5/1 from 8/1 after sustained support.

She’s unbeaten at Ascot, looks to have stamina to burn, and gets the fillies’ allowance.

That’s all to come next week, but first up the Channel 4 cameras have got a big day to cover live from York, with four races live from the Knavesmire on Saturday afternoon.

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Posted 4 years, 5 months ago

19 Feb
2011

Don’t Turn Over – The Best Is Yet To Come

It’s been an absorbing week of action in National Hunt circles, not least the return of the mighty (and still unbeaten) Peddlers Cross after his workmanlike success in Kelso’s Morebattle Hurdle on Thursday afternoon.

In the immediate aftermath of the race my phone was buzzing away like a tormented wasp trapped upside down in an empty beer glass on a hot summer’s day, and as the bookies revised Champion Hurdle quotes arrived a couple of the firms were quick to try and nick a cheap headline or two by inching him out a miserly half point in the betting, but if they honestly thought so little of his display why not make a real statement and actually offer a truly standout price, rather than crowing about very little?

I watched the race in the cosy confines of a bar at Ffos Las racecourse, in the company of a very well known top 10 trainer who was also quick to write him off, shaking his head saying “he won’t win a Champion Hurdle like that”.

That might be a fair point in truth – he certainly won’t win a Champion Hurdle recovering from a minor ailment on heavy ground, just doing enough against horses not fit to lace his boots, especially in a race run a million miles from championship pace, but Jason Maguire wasn’t shy in lighting him up with a few slaps from the ‘persuader’, he put the race to bed in to time and was just dossing a little close home, and it’ll be a very different animal we see on March 15th.

I for one will not be laying off any time soon!

On the subject of Ffos Las I have to say hats off – it is a first rate joint from top to bottom: equine facilities (rubberised walkways, showers, large paddock), clued up Clerk of the Course, friendly, helpful staff everywhere, decent viewing, good bars, excellent canteen and accomodation for stable staff, the whole place is spotless, and punters gain admission for sensible prices.

If there is one area that could be improved it’s well documented problem that’s afflicting plenty of tracks right now, that old chestnut prize money – my own stable won the concluding bumper with a first time out youngster, his reward a whopping £1,600 or thereabouts!

Overall though if you haven’t been it’s well worth a visit, even if just to experience the taxi ride from the station in the company of driver Bob, who must’ve been frothing at the mouth with excitement when he finally arrived at a satisfactory name for his taxi firm: Bob’s Cabs.

Now Bob is no ordinary cabbie, an absolute gent, he spent the entire 15 minutes we were in his company vigorously praising all things Welsh, and it would’ve been no surprise to any of us present if he’d suddenly burst into a rousing chorus of Men Of Harlech at any given moment, this despite the fact his accent was definitely more Croydon than Cardiff. Top man.

As a sideline he also runs Murder Mystery tours, which could be a handy outlet should you find yourself at Ffos Las in the company of anyone you particularly despise.

Last Bob-ism before we try and find a winner: the great man’s formula for ‘picking one out’ is that age old classic of going for names he likes.

He strenuously denies knowing Agnes Haddock, but one name I’m confident he’d be pretty fond of is Overturn as he, like stablemate Peddlers Cross, bids to cement his Cheltenham Festival preparation with a win to put a smile on the face of Cheshire trainer Donald McCain.

Overturn lines up in fascinating renewal of the Grade 2 Bathwick Tyres Kingwell Hurdle at Wincanton, stepping into the back yard of champion trainer Paul Nicholls, who fields two of the five declared runners in Silviniaco Conti and Celestial Halo.

One of the great pet hates of my Channel 4 exec producer is to hear commentators blandly describing a race as ‘fascinating’ or ‘interesting’ without qualifying exactly why, so without further ado, why is this a fascinating renewal?

One of the key established stepping stones to a tilt at the Champion Hurdle, this select field of five for the Kingwell is small on numbers but chock-full of quality, indeed all five declared runners have a realistic chance here.

The top three in the betting all feature in the front 11 in the market for the Champion, so why choose Overturn when he has to concede weight to an exciting horse in Mille Chief (who’s half his price for the big one)?

First up, he certainly has more experience over timber than either of his chief market rivals Mille Chief or Silviniaco Conti, as the winner of four of his ten starts in that discipline, including a runaway romp under a big-ish weight in the Galway Hurdle, plus a hugely pleasing second to Binocular in the Christmas Hurdle last time.

That run behind Binocular means that of the big three here he’s the one who’s been and done it against the big guns, plus he works with Peddlers Cross and the word is there isn’t too much between them.

Next up the track: Overturn has never experienced Wincanton’s right-handed galloping circuit before, but my gut feeling is it’ll suit him down to the ground.

He’ll absolutely love the going, and they may never get to him given his 100 mile-an-hour front running tactics, even though he has to concede weight to a good horse from an in form stable.

The official ratings and the conditions of the race suggest this is going to be a thriller, but although Celestial Halo looks set to take him on for the lead I’m not sure he’ll be able to live with the jet-heeled Overturn, with his ultra-attacking style and flamboyant hurdling technique.

Of the opposition having to concede weight to all comers might just be the undoing of Silviniaco Conti, Celestial Halo looks to want further nowadays even though he’s only seven, Ronaldo Des Mottes has it to do on ratings and might not quite have the class at this level, while Mille Chief was dazzling at Sandown last time under a big weight in a 0-145 handicap, but that was on desperate ground and certainly meant he got an easier time of it against a couple who just couldn’t act on it.

At twice the odds of 5/4 market leader Mille Chief I’m confident the Kingwell can reward Jason Maguire (who rides Tornado Bob in the 1.20pm at Ascot before dashing to Wincanton) and go the way of Overturn in a pillar to post success. It looks the perfect opening for him. Win bet.

Good luck!

Saturday’s best bet:

3.45 Wincanton – Bathwick Tyres Kingwell Hurdle – 3 Overturn (win) @ 10/3 (Coral)

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Posted 6 years, 9 months ago

15 Feb
2011

Form An Orderly ‘Que’ In the David Nicholson Mares’ Hurdle

Seven year old French bred mare Quevega will be many punter’s idea of a rock-solid banker selection at the 2011 Cheltenham Festival, and rightly so as she chases a third win in the David Nicholson Mares’ Hurdle.

An impressive winner of this contest in both 2009 and 2010 she once again comes here as a fresh horse having not been since following up last season’s Cheltenham success with a facile win in the Punchestown Stayers’ Hurdle in April, a fact which shouldn’t put you off as in spite of the lengthy gap between races she hadn’t been seen since Auteuil in May ’09 when sauntering home last year.

The Mullins plan once again features trips to Cheltenham and Punchestown, and the first leg may prove to be easy pickings.

Equally effective against the geldings she seems to have been around forever, and holds quotes no bigger than 16/1 for the World Hurdle, but why take on the combined might of Big Buck’s and Grands Crus when there’s a Grade 2 here for the taking once more?

Of the quoted opposition Voler La Vedette doesn’t even go to Cheltenham, while Sparky May would be a fairytale story after her game success over Carole’s Legacy in the Warfield Mares’ Hurdle at Ascot in January, but in all likelihood they’ll be playing for places behind the roadblock which is Quevega.

Bookies Stan James are currently out on a limb offering an industry wide best price of 5/4.

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Posted 6 years, 9 months ago

18 Mar
2010

Going for Gold – Friday’s Cheltenham Festival Tips

The final day of the 2010 Cheltenham Festival and it has certainly been one for the bookies who must be over the moon with how went on the first three days. Luckily for followers of Tom’s Tips, an each way bet on Powerstation at 40/1 in the World Hurdle meant that Thursday wasn’t too disasterous. Hopefully we’ll sign off with a couple of winners.

Good Luck

Read Tom’s full preview and Tips of Friday’s Cheltenham Races at our Festival sister site

JCB Triumph Hurdle

Carlito Brigante (win) @ 9/2 with Ladbrokes, Victor Chandler and Sportingbet.

Vincent O´Brien County Handicap Hurdle

Oldrick (each way) @ 12/1 with Boylesports and Paddy Power both of whom are paying 5 places in the each way market.

Albert Bartlett Novices´ Hurdle

Bet1 – Enterprise Park (each way) @ 7/1 with Sportingbet who are paying 4 places
Bet 2 – Silver Kate (each way) @ 20/1 with at Totesport.

3:20 Totesport Cheltenham Gold Cup

Cooldine in the the betting without the ‘big two’ @ 2/1 with Bet365.

Johnny Henderson Grand Annual Chase Challenge Cup

Green Belt Elite (each way) @ 10/1 with Boylesports and Bet365 who are bothing paying 5 places for each way backers.

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Posted 7 years, 8 months ago

17 Mar
2010

Get in the spirit on Champion Chase Chase Day – Wednesday’s Cheltenham Tips

Day One wasn’t a bad start for Tom’s Cheltenham tips. Yesterday’s selections yielded four seconds and a winner, which meant followers lived to fight another day, albeit somehwat unluckily with the first three beaten by a cumulative winning distnace of less than one length. Bookies certainly to a 1-0 lead in the bookmakers v punters battle at Prestbuty Park on the whole but let’s hope Tom can pick up where he left off and Tuesday with his Wednesday Cheltenham Festival tips.

Read Tom’s Full Day Two Cheltenham Preview and Tips

1.30 – 140th Year Of The National Hunt Chase Challenge Cup

Mobaasher each-way  @ 12/1 with Ladbrokes and Sportingbet.

Tom predicts that this useful ex-Paul Nicholls runner who is versatile in terms of both going and trip, and is still improving over fences, has a great chance of making the frame off level weights with the field given he’d only be conceeding weight to just three of today’s rivals if this was a handicap. It is also encouraging that current trainer, Venetia Williams, claims that Mobaasher is her best chance of a winner at the Festival.

2.05 – Neptune Investment Management Novices’ Hurdle

Quel Esprit (win) @ 7/2 with Bet365 & Paddy Power

Fourth in the Champion Bumper at Cheltenham last year, this Willie Mullins inmate has made the transition to hurdling and Tom passes on the strong word that connections fancy him to win this and with Ruby Walsh doing the steering who can argue?

2.40 – RSA Chase

Punchestowns (win) @ 11/4 with William Hill.

Tom has been hugely impressed with Punchestowns on his two starts as a Novice Chaser and even goes as far as to suggest he could be a future Champion in the making and takes the Nicky Henderson runner to beat the other market principles of which he raises question marks about.

3.20 – Seasons Holidays Queen Mother Champion Chase

Kalahari King each-way @ 9/2 with bet365, Paddy Power or Ladbrokes.

Tom is happy to take on strong favourite Master Minded in this race, question whether the Paul Nicholls runner will be able to recapture the form which has seen him land this race for the last two years. With this in mind, his selection is Kalahari King who has Cheltenham form in the bag and made a winning return at Doncaster last month and coupled with promising noises from connections, this Ferdy Murphy runner makes a solid each-way claims.

4.00 – Coral Cup

Mamlook each-way @ 20/1. Take advantage of 5 places with Paddy Power.

Tom predicts that Mamlook will relish in this race given his love of big field handicaps. He has been in good form recently and a big run can be expected at a handsome price.

5.15 – Weatherbys Champion Bumper

Drumbaloo each-way @ 15/2 with bet365 who are paying 4 places.

This selection for the final race of the day has been subject to support  in recent weeks and Tom think the James Lambe runner can make the from for each way backers with Choc Thornton in the saddle.

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Posted 7 years, 8 months ago

15 Mar
2010

‘Get’ off to a flyer on Day One of the 2010 Cheltenham Festival – Tuesday’s Tips

Tom’s full preview and tips for Day One of the 2010 Cheltenham can be read at Betting Directory’s dedicated Cheltenham Festival siter site – Tom’s Day One Cheltenham Preview.

Below is a summary of the tips for each of the six races on the opening day.

Good Luck!

1:30 – Spinal Research Supreme Novices’ Hurdle

Get Me Out Of Here (each way) @ 5/1 with Bet365 and William Hill

2.05 – Irish Independent Arkle Challenge Trophy Chase

Somersby (win) @ 4/1 with Ladbrokes and Victor Chandler

2.40 – William Hill Trophy Handicap Chase

The Package (each way) @ 13/2 with Sportingbet

3.20 – Smurfit Kappa Champion Hurdle

Bet 1 – Go Native (win) @ 9/2 with Ladbrokes or Wiliam Hill
Bet 2 – Khyber Kim (each way) @ 8/1 with Victor Chandler or Paddy Power

4.00 – Glenfarclas Handicap Chase (Cross Country)

Garde Champetre (win) @ 9/4 with Sportingbet or William Hill

4.40 – David Nicholson Mares’ Hurdle

Quevega (win) @ 2/1 Bet365, Ladbrokes and William Hill

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Posted 7 years, 8 months ago

05 Mar
2010

Cheltenham Festival Countdown: Supreme Novices’ Hurdle

With the Cheltenham Festival fast approaching, Tom is busy fine tuning which selections he will be posting as tips for the various Cheltenham Races which will appear on this site from Monday 15th March, in time for the first day of the 2010 meeting. However, it never ceases to amaze us here at Betting Directory just how hungry people are for the Cheltenham Festival and we are already seeing huge numbers of people searching for tips and advice ahead of the Festival. Over the space of the next week, we are going to providing our readers with a preview to some of the Festival’s more popular races; looking at who the leading contenders are, where the money has been going in the market and unearthing some trends that may point you in the direction of finding that winner that may not have previously been on your shortlist. We’re going to start with the Cheltenham Festival curtain raiser, the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle.

The only guarantee with the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle is that the start of the race will receive the biggest cheer of the Festival as the tapes go up to signal the start of four days and 26 top class races. However, the betting for the 2010 renewal of the Supreme Novice’s suggests that there is another guarantee in the race, in the form of Dunguib, the long time favourite. The Philip Fenton trained runner has been at the head of the betting for this race since running away to a ten length victory in the Champion Bumper at the Cheltenham Festival 12 months ago and anybody who took the 6/1 with Boylesports about the Irish Raider winning the Supreme Novices’ immediately after that victory will be clearly identifiable from the size of their smile!

Dunguib’s price has only headed in one direction after each of  his subsequent five wins from five starts and the odds against soon evaporated following his Grade 1 Deloitte Hurlde win at Leopardstown in February. He is now a best price 4/5 with Bet365, Ladbrokes and Sportingbet with other firms as short as 4/6 and could well go off as the shortest priced favourite in this race in ever! Anybody looking for a bigger price and isn’t bothered about waiting 12 months could do worse than back Dunguib to win the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle this year and the Champion Hurdle in 2011 at 8/1 with Bet365, a price that will surely look massive if he does win in the manner many are expecting.

Favourites haven’t  fared too well in this race in recent years, with only four of the last 20 jollies obliging but the question remains have any been as good as Dunguib? His trip over the Irish Sea bodes well though with seven winners in the past nine years trained in Ireland. However, it must be remembered that bar his debut run, this horse has yet to come under pressure and has not been asked any question on a racecourse. This is more than likely because he’s top class and everything points towards him cruising to victory at Prestbury on the 16th March but at the price, many punters will be keen to know what the alternatives have to offer.

The springer in the market has been the Jonjo O’Neil trained runner, Get Me Out of Here, whose odds were slashed from 25/1 into 8/1 following his win in the Totesport Trophy Hurdle at Newbury in February. This unbeaten six year old is clearly a horse on the upgrade and could well pose a big threat to Dunguib if improving again but the fact that this will be his first run at Cheltenham does raise a big question mark to answer.

Oscar Whiskey is another runner with a similar profile to Get Me Out of Here, an unbeaten youngster that has improved with every run. However, he would need to find a big improvement on what he has already shown if he is to win on his first start at Cheltenham and trainer Nicky Henderson may have to wait a little longer for his first win in this race since 1992.

Blackstairmountain looks the pick of the remainding Irish runners and trainer, Willie Mullins, could well throw a spanner in the works of  his fellow countryman, Philip Fenton’s, bid to win this race with Dunguib. Whilst far from consistent in his Bumper runs last season, when he did put his best foot forward, Blackstairmountain won well and the same seems evident this season over Hurdles. His latest outing came at Punchestown in Januray, where at the third time of asking, the penny finally dropped over obstacles and he ran away to an easy victory. If he can replicate that kind of form in the Supreme Novices’ then he stands a chance and is still available at 14/1 with Victor Chandler and Stan James. The other Willie Mullins runner is Flat Out (currently 25/1), who has looked impressive on both his (winning) starts over hurdles and is sure to go on to better things. It will no doubt be the decision of jockey Ruby Walsh of which of this pair he decides to take the mount on which will  determine where the money goes come day one of the Cheltenham Festival but the ultimate question is can Dunguib be beaten?

2010 Supreme Novices Hurdle Odds Comparison

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Posted 7 years, 8 months ago

07 Jan
2010

Khyber can Pass Champion Hurdle test – Cheltenham Antepost Tip

With freezing conditions cutting the sporting calendar to ribbons punters are keeping warm by focusing on the big antepost targets, not least the Smurfit Kappa Champion Hurdle betting, in which it could pay to make an early investment in Khyber Kim to continue his relentless improvement shown in the 2009/10 campaign.

A distant 22nd of 27 in last season’s County Hurdle this isn’t a horse you’d immediately have flagged up as a major player in the two mile hurdling showpiece, but a retun to the track at Prestbury Park in November yielded a facile win in the Greatwood Handicap Hurdle, as Kyber Kim powered up the hill under a light weight to see off Harry Tricker by a couple of lengths.
(more…)

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Posted 7 years, 10 months ago

27 Nov
2009

What a Weekend in store at Newbury – tips available now

Denman is red hot favourite for the Hennessy but I'm opposing him!

Denman is red hot favourite for the Hennessy but I'm opposing him!

A nigh on perfect weekend of sport lies in wait for armchair punters, with two fantastic days racing at Newbury, Newcastle’s Fighting Fifth, a typically strong Hatton’s Grace card at Fairyhouse, plus a mid-table scouse derby, the pivotal top of the table Arsenal v Chelsea game and the small matter of ‘el derbi superclasico’ over in Spain.

I can just picture my great mate Lord Culcheth parked on the sofa glugging his Liebfraumilch from a pint glass, Betfair fired up on his laptop, the 42 inch stolen plasma screen belting out Sky Sports or some obscure hooky Greek satellite channel, mobile at the ready, smug grin on his face as he snuggles up to some leathery old cougar he met while prowling the coat queue or the burger van at 4am that morning, dreaming of a trip to Andalucia with the profits of his punting.
(more…)

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Posted 7 years, 11 months ago

10 Sep
2009

Thursday’s Doncaster Leger meeting tips?

The Monitor Closely silks are in action in the opener on Town Moor this afternoon, with newcomer Coordinated Cut strongly fancied to make a winning debut in the 1m maiden (2.00pm).

Coral cut the Montjeu colt to 20/1 join favourite for the 2010 Derby after significant antepost support (including a bet of £4,000) yesterday.

Peter Chapple-Hyam’s youngsters are finally beginning to fire, and with red-hot Kieren Fallon in the plate, he can get favourite backers off to a great start at even money with Bet365.

£100 Free Bet when you join Bet365 and start Betting with them today
(more…)

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Posted 8 years, 2 months ago