2011 December | Betting Directory Tips

Archive for December, 2011

Best Bets To Welcome In The New Year – Tips From Newbury & Cheltenham

Following a hectic few days covering Leopardtown’s fantastic Christmas meeting for RTE in Ireland, Tom’s headed West for a well deserved break and to welcome in 2012 in the beautiful city of Galway. With it, he’s left the writing of this weekend’s column down to the “Bulldog editor” after finding out when he was at the Galway Festival in July, the city has yet to discover the wonders of wireless internet but I’ll let him off and happily lend him a hand after following his tips this week has more than paid for my Christmas. The tremendous win by Le Beau Bai in the Welsh Grand National on Tuesday paid for the Fall Out Boy CD I bought Tom for Christmas and even left me with enough change to take my better half out for a Chippy Tea.

It’s been a great week of racing on both sides of the Irish Sea with undoubtedly the highlight being Kauto Star’s record fifth win in the King George at Kempton on Boxing Day, a result which duly saw his odds slashed from 12/1 in to 4/1 for the Cheltenham Gold Cup. It would appear the value has now long gone on Kauto Star winning a fourth Gold Cup but the return to form of the Paul Nicholls runner this season, who turns 12 on New Years Day, is great for Jumps racing and will provide plenty of publicity for the sport between now and March.

Speaking of Cheltenham, a number of Festival hopefuls will be hoping to confirm their credentials ahead of the National Hunt calendar’s blue ribbon event over the New Year weekend at Newbury on Saturday and at Prestbury Park itself on Sunday. Several runners who feature prominently in the antepost markets for the Cheltenham Festival will be seen at the Berkshire and Gloucestershire tracks over the weekend, with Channel 4 covering all the action.

One horse that has caught the eye on his three starts as a novice hurdler so far this season is the Philip Hobbs trained Fingal Bay who will be looking to extend his unbeaten record and four wins from four runs over obstacles in Newbury’s Bathwick Tyres Challow Novices’ Hurdle at 3:05 on Saturday afternoon.

Fingal Bay has gone from strength to strength since making his seasonal reappearance on the back of winning his only start in bumper company back in February and he has taken to the Novices division with ease and his three wins at Chepstow, Cheltenham and Sandown over the past couple of months have earned him a place at the top of the market for the Neptune Novices Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival, with Bet365 and William Hill offering best odds of 5/1 about the five year old, who, connections will be hoping can go one better than the last two winners of this race in the Neptune after Reve De Sivola came 2nd in 2010 and Backspin came fourth this year.

His last win came at the beginning of the month when he saw off the promising Simonsig from the Nicky Henderson yard and the Seven Barrows stable have entered the lightly raced Top of the Range to try and achieve what his stablemate couldn’t on Saturday. That however is unlikely, as the rate at which Fingal Bay is progressing is showing no signs of slowing down and with his stamina not in doubt having already won over the 2m 5f trip at the Paddy Power Open meeting in November, that upward curve can continue at Newbury and if you don’t fancy the 1/2 on offer with Bet365, take the 5/1 for the Neptune Hurdle.

Earlier on the card, another Cheltenham Festival hopeful in the form of Walkon can confirm his position as one of the antepost market leaders in the Jewson Novices Chase by landing the 2:05, Betfred Goals Galore Novices Chase. This Alan King runner has a lot of racecourse experience for a six year old and his class cannot be doubted as his two Grade One successes over hurdles prove. One of those Grade One victories came in a Novice Hurdle at the Grand National meeting in 2009 but injury meant he spent almost two years on the sidelines before returning to action in January this year. Despite finding life tough in handicap company following his comeback over hurdles, Walkon still showed signs of the ability he showed as a four year old and the decision has since been made to try him over bigger obstacles, to which he looked a seasoned pro when making his chasing debut at Exeter in early December. A faultless round of jumping that day saw him finish six lengths clear of Zaynar at the Devon track and the Nick Williams runner has since gone on to frank that form when he comfortably landed the Grade Two Totepool Novices Chase at Ascot two weeks ago. A repeat performance from Walkon would see him take all the beating at Newbury and he’s worth siding with at 9/4 with Bet365 despite their being some other useful looking rivals in the field, including Cue Card, Minella Class and a Paul Nicholls French import making his English racecourse debut, Criqtonic.

On Sunday, if you’re likely to be nursing a hangover following the New Year celebrations, there is no better way to welcome in 2012 than with a couple of winners at Cheltenham. One likely winner is the Paul Nicholls trained Poungach in the 3:20, Cheltenham & Three Counties Club Hurdle. Tipped up on this very column by Tom when an eight lengths winner on Tingle Creek day at Sandown Park a few weeks ago, the current favourite for the Coral Cup at the Festival in March can make it a hat-trick of wins by taking advantage of the 8lbs he receives from the race’s more experienced runners. The manner in which he demolished his 18 rivals last time out gave every reason to be excited by this prospect and whilst the long term plan for this six year old is to send him chasing, he can continue to build his reputation over hurdles by landing the spoils here.

Poungach can provide Ruby Walsh and Paul Nicholls with a double on the day with the pair boasting solid claims of landing the Sportinglife.com Handicap Hurdle over three miles at 2:45 with Oscargo. Winner over course and distance at the International Meeting earlier this month, Oscargo put behind him a disappointing effort on his seasonal debut, also at Cheltenham, back in November. However, after finding nothing in the run-in up the testing Prestbury Park hill on that occasion, the drop back to three miles in the Citipost Handicap Hurdle seemed to bring out the best in the Ditcheat runner, who eventually ran out the nine length winner. This is a much more competitive affair and he’s gone up 12lb for that win but there’s no doubting that with just three career runs to his name, there’s a lot more to come from Oscargo and he can get the new year off to a winning start.

Whatever you’re doing to welcome in 2012, be it enjoying the finest wines available to humanity, or partying the night away dressed as Del Boy Trotter, dancing to the sounds of Eric Prydz and Paul van Dyk on Ireland’s West Coast, have a great night and a happy, healthy and lucky 2012 from everyone at Betting Directory.

Happy New Year and Good Luck!

Best Bets for the New Year weekend

Saturday

2:05 Newbury – Betfred Goals Galore Novices Chase – Walkon @ 9/4 with Bet365

3:05 Newbury – Bathwick Tyres Challow Novices’ Hurdle – Fingal Bay @ 1/2 and/or at 5/1 to win the Neptune Novices Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival with Bet365

Sunday

2:45 Cheltenham – Sportinglife.com Handicap Hurdle – Oscargo @ 6/4 with Coral

3:20 Cheltenham – Cheltenham & Three Counties Club Hurdle – Poungach @ 9/4 with Victor Chandler & Paddy Power

Posted 4 months, 2 weeks ago

Tags: 1st january, best bets, cheltenham, fingal bay, horse racing tips, new years day, newbury, oscargo, paul nicholls, poungach, saturday 31st december, sunday, walkon
Posted in Bet365, Horse Racing, Jumps, tips, william hill | No Comments »

Quito Firmly In Lexus Driving Seat – Wednesday’s Best Bets

It’s not easy trying to type on an Apple Macbook while doing a one man conga in the pitch black up and down the Leopardstown home straight, but certain events call for a celebration, and Le Beau Bai’s win in Tuesday’s Coral Welsh National fits the bill nicely!

Thanks to everyone who’s taken the time to congratulate the team at our stable – it is exactly that, a team effort, especially in a small, tightly knit 30 horse stable, and everyone involved is rightly made up. Happy days!

The only down side to the day was the failure of racecourse security personnel to intercept long time stable hanger on Lord Culcheth from gaining admittance to the winner’s enclosure, where he merrily spent time hobnobbing with the winning connections and giving interviews to the press as if he owned the place, while reports from later in the evening placed him in a bar in nearby Monmouth claiming to be winning jockey Charlie Poste. Shameless.

Since Le Beau Bai hit the bar in the same race two years ago his owners have been patient for an eternity, waiting for their horse to return to form, and the staff at the yard have worked like crazy. Eventually the cogs began to whirr once more (blinkers were fitted) and hey presto….

Next Stop Newcastle’s Eider Chase if the weather plays ball, although the horse in question might have earned a day or two’s relaxation in the field between now and then.

Looking ahead to Wednesday – the feast continues at Leopardstown, and we might have the chance to profit from a minor upset in the Grade 1 Topaz Fort Leney Novice Chase run over 3m at 1.25pm (live on RTE2).

Gigginstown House Stud field three of the nine runners, and are responsible for the two horse dominating the market in the shape of Last Instalment (Philip Fenton) and First Lieutenant (Mouse Morris).

Both are clearly a class act, but the only chinks to be exposed in the armour of Last Instalment have come on drying ground, while a general 6/4 at the time of writing First Lieutenant doesn’t make too much appeal when he has made mistakes in all his four starts over fences, especially last time at Fairyhouse when he pulled up following a catastrophic blunder.

Step forward Willie Mullins’ Allee Garde in the hands of Ruby Walsh.

He could be anything after getting the job done at the first time of asking at Clonmel on his only try over fences, but the ground will definitely suit him, and he’s caught the eye of the handicapper who already has him on 140 (First Lieutenant 141, Last Instalment 145).

Blackstairmountain proved on Monday that a lack of experience in a new discipline needn’t be a hindrance , and Allee Garde looked a natural in Clonmel, plus we know for a fact he stays every inch of the trip.

A little bit of the 6/1 available with Paddy Power might not be the worst thing in the world.

At 2.00pm the stayers go in the woodiesdiy.com Christmas Hurdle, a race in which Mullins can bring up a double with the admirable Mourad.

Effective on a range of ground, he got to within four and half lengths of no less than Big Buck’s at Cheltenham in March, and as a course and distance winner who’s a confirmed stayer he should have too many guns for the mare Voler La Vedette (who beat him last time), – she shapes as though she’ll stay but has been campaigned almost exclusively at shorter trips.

The 6/4 with Ladbrokes is realistic.

Finally, don’t leave without backing Quito!

No, not David Chapman’s six furlong to a mile legend of five years ago, but Aintree Mildmay Novices’ Chase winner Quito De La Roque for Colm Murphy and Davy Russell – he’s unbeaten since going down by a nostril to Bostons Angel (subsequent RSA winner at Cheltenham) in the Fort Leney Novice Chase 12 momths ago, and the giant strides he has made make defeat difficult to envisage.

He lines up in the feature Lexus Chase over 3m at 2.35pm. and ought to take all the beating after posting five wins on the bounce, including taking the scalp of Champion Chase winner Sizing Europe at Down Royal last time.

He’s a class act, and the 15/8 with Hills might be gone soon.

Good luck!

Wednesday’s best bets:

1.25 Leopardstown – Topaz Fort Leney Novice Chase – 1 Allee Garde (win) @ 6/1 (Paddy Power)

2.00 Leopardstown – Woodiesdiy.com Christmas Hurdle – 2 Mourad (win) @ 6/4 (Ladbrokes)

2.35 Leopardstown – Lexus Chase – 6 Quito De La Roque (win) @ 15/8 (William Hill)

Posted 4 months, 3 weeks ago

Tags: best bets, horse racing tips, leopardstown, lexus chase, quito de la roque, rte, tom lee, wednesday
Posted in Horse Racing, Jumps, ladbrokes, paddy power, tips, william hill | No Comments »

Kauto’s On His Own – Tuesday’s Best Bets

Boom, boom, boom! In a season already heaving with riches and not exactly short on fairytale endings, it just had to be the resurgent Kauto Star to go and trumps them all with a truly sensational display to see off Long Run and co in the King George VI Chase, making it a record breaking five wins in the festive showpiece. Extra, extra, extraordinary!

What more could you ask for? If ever proof were required that National Hunt racing is a class apart it was on display in spades at Kempton Park on Monday afternoon, with the terraces rocking like the front row of a sold out Lancashire Hotpots gig.

Unbelievable scenes, at least from afar.

It must have been great to be there, especially judging by the reaction of the crowd around me at Leopardstown – the Irish know a good horse when they see one, and they roared him home in style, with only a misplaced and comically timed tannoy announcement of “can we have a plumber to the weighing room?” failing to offer clear encouragement to the great horse.

Much loved champion though he is, you got the impression Long Run and Sam Waley-Cohen would’ve been greeted with something approaching silence and/or a lynching if they’d had the temerity to get up and chin Kauto on the line!

It has to rate as the absolute pinnacle of Paul Nicholls’ many achievements in the training ranks, and the ale will be flowing down Ditcheat way tonight you suspect.

Kempton also witnessed Binocular and Grands Crus in their pomp, a feast if ever there was one.

Looking ahead to Tuesday two of RTE’s live races here in Leopardstown look likely to go the way off odds on market leaders, but the same can’t be said of the hugely valuable 28 runner Paddy Power Handicap Chase at 3.05pm (worth over a hundred grand to the winner), where they bet 7/1 the field.

The value has already been taken where the favourite is concerned, but Ruby Walsh’s mount On His Own still has an outstanding shout on his first start for Willie Mullins.

The drying ground will suit him, he won a bumper at this meeting two years ago when trained by Oliver McKiernan, has few miles on the clock, and is said to have improved for the move to his new stable (switched from Howard Johnson this summer).

A mark of 125 leaves him with a lovely low racing weight on his first start in a handicap, and he can take advantage.

It makes sense to bet each way with one of the firms offering five place each way – Bet365, Paddy Power or Boylesports.

By the time they run the Paddy Power we will know the result of Chepstow Coral Welsh National (run at 2.10pm), a contest in which my own family’s Le Beau Bai could provide a handy boost to the chances of Sona Sasta (who runs for David Pipe in the Paddy Power).

Le Beau Bai beat Sona Sasta over 3m in very deep ground at Chepstow on December 3rd, and has benefitted enormously from the application of blinkers.

He’s only a pony so will benefit from his feather weight, and if the blinkers keep working their magic and the ground remains properly Heavy then he must have a massive opportunity to improve on his third in the race two years ago, especially as the yard enjoyed a timely success with the old boy Victory Gunner at Ffos Las on Monday.

Make no mistake this little horse is as hard as nails, and if the ground is bordering on unraceable his chances improve dramatically.

I’d also say don’t discount our other runner Heathcliff, he’s a very capable animal when he chooses, and might well outrun odds of 66/1, though he’s so mauve we don’t know what he’s planning…

He went hunting on Saturday afternoon to sweeten him up, and his lad James Drane got a lovely tune out of him.

If he jumps like that again he’ll be staying on when others are calling for a taxi.

Also at Chepstow I can’t resist a little bit on Tim Vaughan’s Rev It Up in the 0-135 staying hurdle (1.00pm).

He’ll love a battle in these conditions, and can win off 129 on his handicap debut.

He won his first two starts over hurdles (at Chepstow and Ffos Las), and then stepped up in class to finish second to the the progressive Deireadh Re at Cheltenham in a Grade 2 last time out on International day.

In light of Deireadh Re’s win at Wincanton on Monday he’s the one to beat, and the 9/4 with Paddy Power looks worth taking.

Sticking with the Welsh venue the Future Champions Finale Juvenile Hurdle (2.45pm) can go the way of the seriously promising Hollow Tree for Donald McCain and Timmy Murphy.

He’s got a bit to find with chief market rival Countrywide Flame on official ratings, but he was a useful stayer on the level and given his love of Soft ground and the fact only Hinterland has managed to beat him in three starts over timber, I get the impression there’s lots more to come. Big chance.

Finally, don’t miss Nicky Henderson’s Whoops A Daisy in Kempton’s Mares’ Handicap Hurdle at 2.05pm.

She’s a course and distance winner who finds herself on a mark of 132 after her recent listed win at the track, but with the promising Jeremiah McGrath booked to do the steering and relieve five pounds from the burden of top weight, that looks far from insurmountable.

She beat the re-opposing Violin Davis nearly five lengths at level weights last time, and ought to have her measure despite being weighted to finish closer together this time (when you take jockey’s claims into consideration).

The 7/2 with Skybet looks a cracking offer.

Good luck!

Tuesday’s best bets:

1.00 Chepstow – Bet In Play Now At Coral.co.uk Handicap Hurdle – 3 Rev It Up (win) @ 9/4 (Paddy Power)

2.05 Kempton Park – Best Odds Guaranteed With Williamhill.com Mobile Mares’ Handicap Hurdle – 1 Whoops A Daisy (win) @ 7/2 (Skybet)

2.45 Chepstow – Coral Future Champions Finale Juvenile Hurdle – 5 Hollow Tree (win) @ 5/2 (Boylesports)

3.05 Leopardstown – Paddy Power Chase (Handicap) – 24 On His Own (each way) @ 6/1 (Bet365, Paddy Power or Boylesports)

Posted 4 months, 3 weeks ago

Tags: Chepstow, future champions finale juvenile hurdle, kempton park, leopardstown, paddy power chase
Posted in Bet365, Bookmakers, Boylesports, Horse Racing, Jumps, paddy power, skybet, tips | No Comments »

The Best Bets On A Bumper Boxing Day 2011 Fixture List

Christmas comes but once a year and mercifully so if you’re a trainer, stable lad, jockey’s agent or valet, with an eye-watering 12 Boxing Day* meetings in Britain and Ireland for them to service and us to enjoy on a day when many eyes will be trained on South West London, and in particular Kempton Park and the King George VI Chase.

(* this is of course St Stephen’s Day in Ireland!)

That won’t be the case for yours truly, with an early flight to Dublin booked in preparation for the annual pilgrimage in time for four bumper days at a packed Leopardstown in front of the RTE cameras, with the rising star of the Irish commentators’ roster James Griffin lined up to transport me the short distance from the airport to the track, though given his penchant for parking his car upside down in various farmer’s fields and people’s front gardens I’m only offering a safety first 5/6 each of two whether he shows up in his own set of wheels or a hire car.

On the off chance he successfully manages to achieve what he’s narrowly failed to accomplish on many previous occasions ( i.e. kill us both in an A-Team style car wreck), this will be my last ever set of Betting Directory tips, so I’d better make them good….

Given that there doesn’t appear to be a standout bet at Leopardstown until day two I’ll return to a sure to be heaving Kempton for the first of Monday’s bets, with Paul Nicholls’ hugely exciting six year old Rock On Ruby the most likely winner of the williamhill.com Christmas Hurdle, in front of the Channel 4 cameras at 2.35pm.

My gut feeling is that Kempton’s right-handed, sharp, flat speed track will bring out the very best in this fast improving son of Oscar.

Ruby Walsh is available to ride a horse upon which his record is three from three, including a facile victory in Newbury’s Gerry Feilden last time out.

Visually that performance was a delight, but the way that race has worked out is a perfect confidence boost for anyone weighing up the pros and cons of a wager, as third placed and 10 lenths adrift Raya Star (to whom he was conceding the best part of a stone) did the business in the Ladbroke Hurdle last weekend, and fifth placed Alarazi (who was getting nine pounds and ended up 30 lengths adrift!) also ran a mighty race to finish a narrow third in the Ladbroke.

Of course Rock On Ruby has the small matter of higher rated rivals to contend with, namely 2010 Champion Hurdle winner Binocular (easy winner of this race back in January), as well as dual purpose superstar Overturn, but he comes into it on the crest of a wave and they’ll have to be on sparkling form to deny him.

I know Betting Directory’s in-house golfing mad Spurs fanatic Russell Palmer will be convinced I’ve contracted malaria on a recent visit to Cleethorpes given that I’m normally the first to bang the Overturn drum, but he’s been beaten on both previous visits to Kempton and has had a pretty gruelling time of it recently.

Yet more prize money might come his way, but on this occasion of the place variety I reckon.

As for Binocular I think, rightly or wrongly, there’s something brilliant but also undeniably brittle in his overall profile, and if he was lining up against a field of sheep I’d try and find some justification to construct an argument not to back him.

Perhaps he was in need of the run when a well beaten second to Overturn in the Fighting Fifth, and can improve for that, but with Rock On Ruby a rising force he’ll need to.

Rock On Ruby has had an ideal break of 30 days since his Newbury success, and can oblige at top of the head 9/4 with Ladbrokes.

The King George itself rolls round at 3.10pm, and you can be certain there won’t be an unoccupied vantage point anywhere in the house at the Sunbury track as the extraordinary Kauto Star bids to make yet more history, this time trying to go clear of Desert Orchid with a fifth win in the big festive showpiece.

Kauto looked back to his very best at Haydock last time when winning the Betfair Chase by eight lengths from Long Run, and though last year’s King George and Gold Cup winner can be expected to improve for the run, I expect Ruby to try and test his sometimes iffy jumping by making all and setting a forceful gallop.

My heart is desperate for a Kauto win, but does it make sense to back him at no bigger that 100/30, especially for those who read this on Monday and get involved on the day with a horse certain to be overbet by a sentimental public?

My head says no though, and that’s because in Diamond Harry I think there’s a 16/1 shot (with Bet365, Paddy Power or Victor Chandler) who can make the frame and therefore give us a 4/1 return each way, and might even cause an explosive upset and go and win the thing altogether!

In a sense it’s the best of both worlds – I’d love to see Kauto win and Diamond Harry placed, but if Kauto left his race behind at Haydock and Long Run fails to produce then something has to win….

On the official ratings Diamond Harry is a stone shy of Long Run and should have no chance, plus he was dismissed like an errant schoolboy when he tried to go toe to toe with Kauto at Haydock, but he too was entitled to improve for the run, and that on only his fifth chase start.

Think back to when he was brilliant in the 2010 Hennessy, plus his trainer Nick Williams has his string in electric form, Barry Geraghty (who won on him the only time the pair were previously in action) has been snapped up to do the steering, and now he races right-handed for the first time I think this talented sort might capitalise on stamina doubts regarding both Captain Chris and Master Minded to make the frame at big odds.

At a far shorter price I’ll be surprised if Nick Williams doesn’t have a winner at Wincanton, with his exciting daughter of Exit To Nowhere Swincombe Flame facing a straightforward looking task in the Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle at 2.15pm.

She goes on a range of ground, won both her bumpers including the listed Mares’ Final at Sandown back in March, and scored over hurdles at Exeter last time in what was more of a saunter than a race.

Hopefully the presence of Queen’s Bay will make her a more palatable price, and Swincombe Flame is a confident selection.

Also at Wincanton Rangitoto can provide a welcome distraction for champion trainer Paul Nicholls, as he wrestles with more high profile targets along at A303/M3 corridor at Kempton Park.

Rangitoto made a very good impression when winning an Intermediate Handicap Hurdle under Ruby Walsh last month at the Cheltenham Festival, and he can bag the 2m 5f Novices’ Chase at 3.20pm under Nick Scholfield.

He won his only point-to-point start (at Carrigtwohill in Ireland) with ease, and is said to jump the bigger obstacles like a demon.

He’ll need to though, as they’re big, stiff old fences at Wincanton, but perhaps that’s a measure of his trainer’s confidence sending him there first time out. Win bet.

Lastly, since this column’s last bet in Northern Ireland (Kauto Stone) came up trumps – I can pass on a good word for Cadogan in the Beginners Chase at Down Royal (1.00pm) – now back with Jim Dreaper after a long spell (4 years) off the track, he has hardly any miles on the clock and is said to have improved for his second to Raptor at Punchestown five weeks ago, and can go one better here.

Wishing you all a very Happy Christmas, go easy on the sherry and try not to get arrested for violent disorder within the first hour of your in-laws arrival – this column will be back on Monday night with the best suggestions for Chepstow and Leopardstown on Tuesday.

Good luck!

Monday’s best bets:

1.00 Down Royal – Irish Stallion Farms EBF Beginners Chase – 2 Cadogan (win)

2.15 Wincanton – FDB Shieldacre Ltd Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle – 3 Swincombe Flame (win)

2.35 Kempton Park – williamhill.com Christmas Hurdle – 4 Rock On Ruby (win) @ 9/4 (Ladbrokes)

3.10 Kempton Park – William Hill King George VI Chase – 2 Diamond Harry (each way) @ 16/1 (Bet365, Paddy Power or Victor Chandler)

3.20 Wincanton – Armishaws Removals Harry Dufosee Novices’ Chase – 2 Rangitoto (win)

Posted 4 months, 3 weeks ago

Tags: best bets, boxing day, c4, channel 4, down royal, horse racing tips, kempton, king george chase, morning line, tom lee, Wincanton
Posted in Horse Racing, Jumps, ladbrokes, paddy power, tips, VCBet | No Comments »

Grounds For Confidence On Ladbroke Hurdle Day

With a bit of luck both Ascot and Haydock can escape the worst of the wintery weather to make up a cracking six race double bill live on Channel 4 on Saturday afternoon.

It’s an early start for yours truly in front of the Morning Line cameras, and it should be a show well worth tuning in for with guest contributions from the BHA’s Director of Security Paul Scotney, plus top rider Christian Williams.

I’ll also be out and about chatting to Ascot Clerk of the Course Chris Stickels, plus Ladbrokes very own David Cameron look and sound-a-like David Williams who’ll be unveiling news of their best punter friendly concessions on one of the key days in the Magic Sign’s sponsorship portfolio.

At the time of writing rumour has it that’ll mean Ladbrokes offering to refund stakes on the horse who finishes second to Big Bucks in the Long Walk, which essentially for many people will mean a bet to nothing on the improving Dynaste. Not bad.

Out on the track there’s plenty to say about Saturday’s racing, but both main cards will be hugely influenced by the weather and indeed the relatively testing conditions if they get the go ahead.

Ascot’s ground was changed to Soft ahead of Friday’s card, while Haydock is Heavy having absorbed a lot of rain, but also threatened by snow and frost.

Fingers crossed they can survive at the Newton-le-Willows track, as I’ve got their 2m 4f handicap hurdle scheduled for 2.10pm down to just two options, both of whom will thrive on the ground while others are dropping like flies.

Both are towards the head of the weights, but both are sizeable prices and certainly worth chancing on a day which could throw up some decent priced winners.

First up is Philip Hobbs’ six-year-old Priolo gelding Pateese, who isn’t well treated off 140 but does have decent Conditional Matt Griffiths on top to alleviate some of his big weight.

He looked a totally different animal on Soft ground when scooting up in a Sandown handicap off 128 at the start of November, and off the back of that effort went off favourite for the Greatwood no less (which may have come too quick).

He has only been out of the frame twice in nine starts over hurdles, and can take advantage of these conditions to run a big race at 9/1 each way with Victor Chandler.

Backing two in the same race isn’t my ideal approach, but sometimes it can be considered a necessary evil, as it is in the case of Venetia Williams’ mud lover Houblon Des Obeaux.

There were whispers from within his stable that he might have a genuine chance at the top level in the Triumph Hurdle after he got the job done in deep ground in the Victor Ludorum at Haydock in February, but this will be the first time since then he’s had his ground and only his third handicap, and even that’s from a reduced mark.

As a course winner he deserves respect, and at 12/1 each way with Ladbrokes i’d be in no way surprised if he popped up here.

I’m sure you’ve already read that Donald McCain has given Peddlers Cross the day off rather than risk him on bottomless ground at Haydock, but one stable star making the short journey from Cheshire is Wymott, who’ll be fully revved up for his attempt at the feature Tommy Whittle Handicap Chase at 2.45pm.

On ground he’ll love he has a favourite’s chance, and can net his first win since February.

Down at Ascot had the ground remained Good I’d have been gearing up for a tilt at Massini’s Maguire in the Silver Cup on just his second run for David Pipe, but leaving that contest well alone I’ll fast forward to the final race on the card, Europe’s most valuable Handicap Hurdle no less, in the shape of the Ladbroke Hurdle at 3.35pm.

Favourite Prospect Wells joined Paul Nicholls from Howard Johnson in the summer, and has hit the ground running with a pair of wins at Chepstow and Newbury sandwiching a highly creditable effort at Cheltenham, when he was worn down in the dying strides by Steps To Freedom.

He was very handy on the Flat, and might be a good thing with Ruby up and mark of 142 guaranteeing a lovely racing weight (10.9), but 4/1 is short enough for one with so little experience (only three starts over timber), and there is a chance he might find it happening all a bit too fast against seasoned pros.

Over the last few campaigns the stats are rotten for the four year olds, with a recent record of 0-27 enough to concern anyone thinking of backing fancied contenders such as Prospect Wells’ stablemate Brampour (who’s technically nine pounds well in but has top weight), sole Irish challenger Sailors Warn, or northern contender Abergavenny.

Interestingly the stats also show that the last eight winners were aged between five and seven, and most had run no more than ten times in this discipline.

One who conforms, acts on the ground, and might be a shorter price if he hailed from a more fashionable stable is Lucy Wadham’s Alarazi, who was smart on the Flat when with John Oxx, has had a run to sharpen him up, and might think Christmas has come early with a feather weight to carry and the great Richard Johnson on his back.

You don’t need a long memory to recall him hacking up in the Imperial Cup in March, and though he hasn’t won since he has been highly tried, and to me it seems far too soon to write off this good looking son of Spectrum, which freely available quotes of 20/1 appear to.

Bet365, Boylesports, Ladbrokes or Stan James will all lay you the top price.

Good luck!

Saturday’s best bets:

2.10 Haydock – Maxilead Metals Supports Alder Hey Imagine Appeal Handicap Hurdle – 2 Pateese (each way) @ 9/1 (Victor Chandler)

2.10 Haydock – Maxilead Metals Supports Alder Hey Imagine Appeal Handicap Hurdle – 3 Houblon Des Obeaux (each way) @ 12/1 (Ladbrokes)

2.45 Haydock – Maxilead Metals Tommy Whittle Handicap Chase – 2 Wymott (win) @ 7/2 (Boylesports or William Hill)

3.35 Ascot – The Ladbroke Handicap Hurdle – 11 Alarazi (each way) @ 20/1 (Bet365, Boylesports, Ladbrokes or Stan James)

Posted 5 months ago

Tags: 17th december, betting, channel 4, horse racing tips, houblon des obeaux, morning line, odds, pateese, saturday, tom lee, wymott
Posted in Bet365, Boylesports, Jumps, ladbrokes, stan james, tips, VCBet, william hill | No Comments »

A Dream Day At Cheltenham – Saturday’s Best Bets

What could be finer than unexpectedly plotting up in a Brewers Fayre pub near a saturated stretch of the M6 slap bang during the middle of rush hour on a Friday night?

Fortunate not to be killed by a stray bread roll – launched by someone with particularly bad eye sight or possibly someone particularly angry after Always Bold was beaten on Friday having been napped on the blog – during an impromptu food fight that erupted among the accountants department of a nearby firm’s office party, your correspondent is braving a world of two meals for £10 and the apparently ‘world famous’ all you can eat ‘Chip Shop Buffet’ to bring you Saturday’s predictions for the best route to a profitable day at Cheltenham and beyond.

I haven’t yet availed myself of either of the aforementioned offers, thought the gentleman next to me definitely has, possibly more than once in recent times judging by his rippling physique.

He won’t be doing 10 stone any time soon it’s fair to say, though his third piece of battered carp does look incredibly good.

Other positives that come with my temporary surroundings include complimentary wireless broadband and an endless supply of ice cold, reasonably priced lager. I’m a fan.

I’m also a fan of Join Together’s chances at Cheltenham on Saturday afternoon (12.45) as he bids to make it two from two in Cheltenham Novice Chases this season, having seen off Teaforthree and Restless Harry at the November fixture.

The way Teaforthree franked that form as he won at Chepstow last week was spectacular and means Join Together must be quite a sort to beat him, and with doubts about his main rivals here he can allay any fears about his ability to act on a faster surface, at the expense of Mossley (jumping) and Champion Court (stamina).

There’s a whole heap of possibilities in Cheltenham’s two mile handicap chase at 1.20pm, but though Havingotascoobydo makes plenty of appeal at 4/1 from towards the bottom of the weights I also like a horse at twice the price with valuable experience on the track, namely Dave’s Dream who’s hard to predict but definitely capable on his day.

The drop back in trip and quicker ground will be a huge boost, and though Barry Geraghty rides stablemate Tanks For That it does open the door for Jeremiah McGrath to take five pounds off and relieve some of the burden of his mark of 147.

He won easily at the November Open Meeting in 2010 off 137, and though well beaten over further in the Paddy Power might have been wrongly overlooked by those bookmakers prepared to lay him each way at 8/1 with any of Blue Square, Ladbrokes, Paddy Power or William Hill.

It certainly doesn’t get any easier at 2.30pm as the feature handicap on the card now run as the Spinal Research The Atlantic 4 Gold Cup rolls round.

AP McCoy gets down to 10 stone 4 pounds in order to take the ride on Sunnyhillboy, a phenomenal achievement in itself for a man in his 19th season riding, and he’ll be a danger to all on a horse who’s twice made the frame in ultra competitive company on this track (including this race 12 months ago).

There’s also Paddy Power winner and Hennessy fourth Great Endeavour, plus David Pipe’s Salut Flo who’s returning from two years off.

Winners of this race certainly don’t come easy, but the one to disappoint AP and company might well be the talked up West Country hopeful Roudoudou Ville for Victor Dartnall and Andrew Glassonbury.

He is unexposed, sharply progressive, goes on quick ground, travels like a dream, and promises to improve still further around Cheltenham’s left-handed circuit.

His trainer is no stranger to big race winners, and the 10/1 available each way with any of Sportingbet, Boylesports or Paddy Power represents a cracking wager.

If that isn’t enough to get you excited then a truly vintage renewal of the Bula Hurdle (run as the stanjames.com International) should do just that at 3.05pm, with a staggering wealth of talent strutting their stuff.

I’ll be a candidate to throw myself under a fast moving nearby bus if Overturn wins and he isn’t carrying my cash, and with the faster ground in his favour this remarkable horse should put up a bold effort at extending his winning sequence to four.

I firmly respect his principal rivals, but this is a horse who genuinely could make the frame in the Champion Hurdle itself, and with him displaying the form of his life it wouldn’t be a shock if he were to reward us by storming up the Cheltenham hill at a top offer of 4/1 with Boylesports.

Good luck!

Saturday’s best bets:

12.45 Cheltenham – Ryman Stationer Novices’ Chase – 1 Join Together (win) @ 100/30 (Victor Chandler)

1.20 Cheltenham – Jenny Mould Memorial Handicap Chase – 3 Dave’s Dream (each way) @ 8/1 (Blue Square, Ladbrokes, Paddy Power or William Hill)

2.30 Cheltenham – Spinal Research The Atlantic 4 Gold Cup (Handicap Chase) – 10 Roudoudou Ville (each way) @ 10/1 (Sportingbet, Boylesports or Paddy Power)

3.05 Cheltenham – stanjames.com International Hurdle – 2 Overturn (win) @ 4/1 (Boylesports)

Posted 5 months, 1 week ago

Tags: 10th december, best bets, channel 4, cheltenham, december gold cup, horse racing tips, international hurdle, morning line, saturday, tom lee
Posted in Bluesq, Boylesports, Horse Racing, Jumps, ladbrokes, paddy power, sportingbet, tips, VCBet, william hill | No Comments »

It Can Pay To Be Bold With Friday’s Best Bets From Cheltenham & Doncaster

After two afternoons spent shivering at Leicester and Ludlow it’s a move not necessarily up the temperature gauge, but most definitely up the National Hunt racing pyramid on Friday, with a trip to day one of Cheltenham’s International Meeting on the menu for their seven race fixture.

It’s a mixture of a card, but I’ll be kicking off with a few quid each way on back in-form trainer Charlie Longsdon’s Paintball in the 2m 1f Caspian Caviar Handicap Hurdle at 12.35pm (live on Ch4).

Still only four this previous course and distance winner did us a favour when making the frame in a hot race at Sandown five weeks ago (in a race won by Pateese who then went off favourite for the Greatwood), and with his mark of 130 untouched he can go very close here.

Favourite for the race will be Paul Nicholls’ Edgardo Sol, but he has had three hard enough races in the space of a few weeks, and seemed a little jaded when only fourth at Sandown last Saturday.

Additionally the form of his Aintree win took a knock when The Cockney Mackem was beaten at Ludlow on Thursday.

Paintball though clearly loves Cheltenham, will go on the faster ground, is lightly raced and has an excellent conditional on his back to take off five pounds.

He had Philip Hobbs’ re-opposing charge Tony Star (twice beaten since) miles behind him on similar terms last time out, but both are available at 8/1 at the time of writing in an open looking heat – I know which one I’d rather be on.

A bit of the 8′s available each way with either Ladbrokes or Paddy Power will do nicely.

Sticking with Cheltenham the 2m5f Conditional Jockeys’ Handicap Chase at 1.10pm doesn’t look much of a race, and I’ll be a bit disappointed if this doesn’t go the way of the champion trainer’s That’lldoboy in the hands of Ryan Mahon (who takes a handy three off).

He has won his last two, with victories at Wincanton and especially at Newbury denoting him as one to keep on the right side of, with a most impressive battling attitude needed to repel the very capable when fresh Zarrafakt a fortnight ago.

Yes he’s creeping up the weights (rated 123 now) but I can’t find one to beat him, so row in with the favourite at a general 15/8.

Finally at jump racing HQ it might not be everyone’s idea of purist entertainment, but the Cross Country will be an integral part of Channel 4′s afternoon broadcast, and Willie Mullins can follow up his win with Uncle Junior at the Open Meeting’s version of this marathon test, with the game ten year old back for more at 2.20pm.

He knows and acts on the track, stays the trip, never stops galloping, and can handle the rock hard ground (officially firm on the banks course).

He has banks legend Garde Champetre to beat (but did so last time), plus stablemate and jolly Scotsirish – who has to prove he can see it out over this extended trip after a facile success at Punchestown.

To my eyes the 7/2 with Hills or Boylesports about Uncle Junior looks a very solid option.

My bet of the day though comes not at Cheltenham but at Doncaster in their concluding extended three mile handicap hurdle (3.20pm), where Always Bold can continue his resurgence under the care of Midlands handler Martin Keighley.

Formerly useful (rated 130 at his peak) when with Donald McCain he just lost his way a little bit in a larger stable, but in a short space of time Keighley has proved himself adept at getting a second hand clock to tick again, and having won two on the bounce from a sequence starting mark of just 95 he still looks dangerous off 107 as he bids to complete the hat-trick with a win on Town Moor.

A win bet at 11/4 with Paddy Power on this dour stayer can end the day on a high.

Good luck!

Friday’s best bets at Cheltenham & Doncaster:

12.35 Cheltenham – Caspian Caviar Handicap Hurdle – 3 Paintball (each way) @ 8/1 (Ladbrokes or Paddy Power)

1.10 Cheltenham – CF Roberts Electrical + Mechanical Services Conditional Jockey’s Handicap Chase – 1 That’lldoboy (win) @ 15/8 (General) – (Friday morning update, Coral a standout 9/4)

2.20 Cheltenham – Glenfarclas Cross Country Handicap Chase – 2 Uncle Junior (win) @ 7/2 (William Hill or Boylesports)

3.20 Doncaster – Bet In Play At Victor Chandler Handicap Hurdle – 2 Always Bold (win) @ 11/4 (Paddy Power)

Posted 5 months, 1 week ago

Tags: 9th december, always bold, best bets, cheltenham, doncaster, friday, horse racing tips, paintball, uncle junior
Posted in Boylesports, Horse Racing, Jumps, ladbrokes, paddy power, tips, william hill | No Comments »

All The Best Bets For Tingle Creek Day

December is upon us and with the likes of Kauto Star, Carruthers, Peddlers Cross and Overturn providing the type of headline delicacies National Hunt devotees lap up over the last two weekends you have to say this Saturday’s fayre will be going some to match the giddy heights reached in late November, but having had a good root through the strength in depth on offer – you know what….it just might!

For yours truly Sandown Park’s feature event the – Sportingbet Tingle Creek Chase (live on Ch4, 3.05pm) – will always conjure up brilliant images of the mighty Moscow Flyer launching himself over the Railway fences in his pomp in 2003 and 2004, the type of speed chaser who single-handedly justified the admission fee for packed crowds, time and time again.

The way he saw off the young pretenders Azertyuiop and Well Chief in the second of those great races was the type of occasion to get anyone hooked, one that justified the uncorking of a fine 1953 Margaux confiscated from family supplies, vintage stuff!

This year’s renewal has perhaps been robbed of some of its stardust owing to the absence of both Finian’s Rainbow and Tataniano, and with Queen Mother Champion Chase winner Sizing Europe short enough at a general 13/8 (after a gruelling race at Down Royal) to see off Wishfull Thinking and Kauto Stone it’ll be a watching brief pour moi.

We ought to be able to unearth a couple of winners on the card though, and I’ll feel as sick as a pike if I let Poungach go unbacked in the Pertemps Handicap Hurdle at 1.25pm.

A pair of blues will be well spent following a young horse with a massive future, and this five year old son of Daliapour makes his handicap debut off a mark of 137 in the hands of Ruby Walsh.

He’s been the subject of a number of favourable mentions from Champion trainer Paul Nicholls over the last few months, and was my horse to follow on RTE Racing when we were last on air for the Irish Leger meeting at the Curragh back in September.

I don’t suppose the bookmakers will be taking any chances with him, and in Arrayan, Valid Point and Drumbaloo there are serious alternatives available at inflated prices, but this fella could prove to be a cut above (with a handy racing weight).

I was at Ascot in January when he ran in the second of his novice hurdles, a race he won with almost dismissive ease.

Inexperience might be his biggest obstacle, but he’s one to follow without a doubt. Win bet.

Nicholls and Walsh can bring up a double a little later on the card as Edgardo Sol bids to extend his winning streak in the 0-150 handicap hurdle at 2.30pm.

As befits a Saturday plenty of good horses are lining up to try and chin him, but this horse’s progress in the last few weeks has been startling, over both hurdles and fences.

First up he got the better of The Cockney Mackem in a prolonged scrap in a novices’ handicap chase at Aintree, then he switched to hurdles and sluiced up under top weight in a novices’ handicap at Cheltenham on Paddy Power Day.

He’s still only four and can improve far beyond a mark of 134.

I love the fact Lyon Parilly course specialist Mister No comes across to have a crack at this race under David Cottin, but though I hope he can reward his sporting connections with enough to pay their expenses he’ll have to be very good to beat Edgardo Sol. Win bet.

Personally I’m off to Chepstow, cadging a lift off my acquaintance Lord Culcheth, who’ll almost certainly turn up late, bleary-eyed and unshaven, boasting about his new Jag which he’s just fixed up for a supposedly delightful forthcoming weekend in the country.

I keep telling him not to mix his drinks, but I suspect he may be incapable of indulging in anything other than pleasure, judging by the downward spiral that has caught hold of him since his last visit to Aintree a few weeks ago when he somehow backed four winners and decided to celebrate heavily, which meant he missed out Monday but eventually came up smiling on Tuesday, stinking of essence of petunia.

That’s a story for another day, but while we’re on the subject of both Jaguar and Aintree have a good hard look at Donald McCain’s Cinders And Ashes in the opening maiden hurdle.

Still only four, and with a fifth in the Champion Bumper at the Festival back in March on his cv he already looks like he’s going to be pretty useful in his career as a hurdler, going close when an unlucky second on his debut at Ascot a fortnight ago.

He can go one better here at the expense of old rival Keys.

I have to say I love Aintree racecourse for both atmosphere and spectacle, and the feature race there is the Becher Chase over the National fences at 2.10pm.

Lots of the 15 declarations have valid claims, with last year’s winner Hello Bud back for more off a mark only three pounds higher, Classic Chase hero West End Rocker trying to rediscover his form, dual Topham winner Always Waining likely to be right in the thick of it, and Another Palm representing the Irish who have an excellent record in this contest.

However, I think I might have found one at the bottom of the weights who’s a very accomplished jumper and can give us a big run for our cash at a juicy double figure price.

Devon trainer Nick Williams won’t train a more emphatic winner than his classy mare Swincombe Flame, who hacked up at Exeter on Friday to suggest the stable are in a bit of form ahead of their trip to the North West, a trip which could be very profitable if his improving grey Shalimar Frontero can do the business in the big race.

He was unlucky to be demoted to second after getting his head in front at Paris track Auteuil last time out (20 days ago), but also has form with Wymott from last December at Exeter which is most encouraging – Wymott beat him a length in a three mile novice chase at Exeter, the same Wymott who ran very well to finish sixth in the Hennessy off 144 a week ago.

Shalimar Frontero hasn’t achieved as much to date but has the potential to do so, is only rated 130 and gets in here with a feather weight against some thoroughly exposed and tired looking individuals.

Clearly that word inexperience is again a risk, especially when confronting those massive fences, but that’s factored into the price, and I’m happy to get involved each way at 12/1 with Victor Chandler.

Good luck!

Saturday’s best bets:

12.00 Aintree – Jaguar Northern Dealers Maiden Hurdle – 1 Cinders And Ashes (win)

1.25 Sandown Park – Pertemps Handicap Hurdle – 3 Poungach (win) @ 7/2 (Paddy Power)

2.10 Aintree – Betfred Becher Handicap Chase – 12 Shalimar Frontero (each way) @ 12/1 (Victor Chandler)

2.30 Sandown Park – Bavaria Imported Premium Lager Handicap Hurdle – 6 Edgardo Sol (win) @ 9/2 (William Hill)