Archive for December, 2008

Trust Ballydub to make it a Happy New Year‏

If the frost blanket does its job then Ballydub can give this column its first winner of 2009 here at Cheltenham in Thursday’s Unicoin Homes H’Cap Hurdle at 2.45pm.

The form of his run at Cheltenham’s Open Meeting back in November looks very solid, with the horse that beat him that day Punchestowns now favourite for the World Hurdle after following up in style at Ascot.

Ballydub also managed to follow up, going one better at Newbury on the Friday of the Hennessy fixture – and despite rising a stone in the weights he can prove too strong for Big Buck’s, especially since Paul Nicholls’ young chaser is forced to concede nearly a stone to his improving rival over hurdles.

Get on  at 9/4 with Blue Square.

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Posted 1 year, 2 months ago

The ‘Real’ Deal

Here at Leopardstown the word is out that Willie Mullins is preparing to unleash a hot prospect in the bumper at 3.25pm, with Rhyl Accord strongly fancied to land the last race of a brilliant four day meeting.
Take 7/4 with Stan James, Coral or Ladbrokes.

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Posted 1 year, 2 months ago

Nicholls in pole position to land Lexus

Neptune Collonges can make it a fifth Irish Grade One for trainer, Paul Nicholls in this afternoon’s Lexus Chase (2:35pm Leopardstown). Take 11/8 best odds guaranteed with either Paddypower or Stan James.

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Posted 1 year, 2 months ago

Boxing Day and Christmas Racing Tips

Hot on the heels of Binocular’s Christmas spectacular at Ascot on Saturday the bookmakers were busily talking up his chances as a Champion Hurdle certainty, and with Cheltenham still three months away his current general price of 6/4 is short enough (7/4 biggest with Boylesports), but isn’t it great to have another potential superstar on the scene?

Nicky Henderson’s four-year-old put the issue to bed in a matter of strides on Saturday, and with AP McCoy never having to go for his stick you get the impression there was plenty left in the tank against proper opposition. Brilliant.

What’s even more remarkable is that Binocular might face his biggest challenge for hurdling’s greatest prize from a horse who stands in the same yard – Punjabi. You could say Henderson isn’t so much facing an embarrassment of riches in this department as wallowing in them.

The classy five-year-old is the pick of the field for Boxing Day’s Christmas Hurdle at Kempton Park (2.05pm), and I’ll be happily snapping up the 13/8 with Boylesports.

He has some vital experience under his belt having almost taken the Totesport Trophy under top weight, run a six length third to Katchit in last year’s Champion Hurdle, before heading on for the Punchestown equivalent where he scored a cosy three length victory over former champion Sublimity.

More evidence came on the Flat at Sandown and Newmarket; back to back wins on the level understandably earning a summer holiday after a fruitful campaign.

With the Henderson team in such extraordinary form he was a confident selection to take the re-arranged Fighting Fifth at Wetherby a couple of weeks back, and he duly delivered in a good heat with Sublimity, despite having to knuckle down in workmanlike fashion on ground that wouldn’t have been ideal.

Snap Tie and Pierrot Lunaire can give him most to do, but Punjabi is a confident selection to take the Christmas Hurdle honours.

Anyone heading down to Kempton will be in for a treat, with the King George VI Chase just 35 minutes later the star attraction at the Sunbury track (2.40pm).

While I’m more than happy to take a relatively short price about Punjabi there’s no way I’ll be getting involved with Kauto Star at 6/4, despite reports he’s in good nick as he attempts to land the race for the third year running.

French bred horses don’t always train on into the later stages of their careers, while Kauto’s shown an alarming tendency to race lazily in his races.

Defeats at Cheltenham, Aintree and Haydock add fuel to the argument he’s not the force of old, and while master trainer Paul Nicholls is adamant any talk of the dying of the light is in his words ‘bollocks’, I’m still happy to shop elsewhere for a selection in the race.

Argumants still rage on about whether or not he would have won the Betfair Chase had Sam Thomas not been unseated – I’m far from convinced.

His short odds mean there’s a value to be had elsewhere in the field, and there’s some decent opposition to choose from.

Let’s face it – if Kauto Star runs anywhere near his best he wins with ease, and he destroyed them 12 months ago, but keep your fingers crossed for a masterclass from one of jumping racing’s true stars safe in the knowledge that if he is to be beaten you’ll trouser enough folding stuff to buy up the entire contents of the Argos warehouse in Croydon in the January sales.

What’s more, by finishing second or third him at the right price, you’ll still walk away with a tidy profit. Therefore the answer to the King George puzzle could be an each way bet on Our Vic at 11/1(Sportingbet).

Making his seasonal reappearance David Pipe’s 10-year-old has a cracking record fresh, and while it can be argued that he faces a near statistical impossibility since no horse has won the King George on their first run of the season for 20 years, records are their to be broken and he has the class to carry him into the reckoning against a mixed bunch.

Imperial Commander is a handicapper stepping up massively in class, Voy Por Ustedes is short enough at 7/2, while the jury is still out on comeback horse War Of Attrition as he steps back up to three miles.

Our Vic meanwhile has been trained specifically for this contest, finshed second in the race 12 months ago in a creditable display, ran second to Knowhere in the Letheby & Christopher, excelled in winning the Ryanair, and then crucially lowered Kauto Star’s colours in an Aintree thriller in the Betfair Bowl off level weights. The blinkers David Pipe fitted for his last two runs eked out a vast improvement.

I can’t see the price lasting too long – snap it up while it’s still there.

Less than 24 hours later all eyes will be on Chepstow for the Coral Welsh National, a race in which I expect Irish raider Notre Pere to make a splash at 12/1each way with Paddy Power.

Trainer Jim Dreaper is bullish about his prospects.

The seven-year-old stays longer than the mother in law and enjoyed big race success in Navan’s Troytown Chase five weeks ago. As long as Halcon Genelardais runs to keep the weights down he has strong place claims in the Christmas marathon.

Have a great Christmas and Good luck!

Boxing Day Tips
2:05 Kempton – Punjabi to win 13/8 with Boylesports
2:40 Kempton – Our Vic 10/1 each-way with Sportingbet

Saturday 27th December
2:05 Chepstow (Welsh Grand National) – Notre Pere each-way at 12/1 with Paddy Power

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Posted 1 year, 2 months ago

Forza Tifoso‏

Tifoso looks well worth backing at 11/4 with Totesport on his first start for the Alan King team in the Christmas Carol Handicap Hurdle at Hereford (1.40pm).

Only a three-year-old his shrewd trainer looks to have found the ideal opportunity to introduce a horse who scored on both his latest appearances in the French provinces.

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Posted 1 year, 2 months ago

Wrap up a couple of winners in time for Christmas!‏

The Channel 4 cameras head for Haydock & Newcastle this weekend, and for those of us braving the betting ring at the former, it should be pretty lively to put it mildly, with all the North West Premiership sides otherwise engaged, meaning thousands of wasted locals in full ‘works-out’ party mood trying to attack us as we cower in the corner.

If you’ve never witnessed two scousers dressed as Rudolph the Red nosed Reindeer doing the Scoop6 shuffle in a vain attempt to get on tv, Haydock’s the place to go to break your duck.

Joking apart, the atmosphere will be fantastic, so if you’re sick of Christmas shopping there’s no finer way to spend the first day of the holiday period.

No finer way that is, if you can back a winner or two, and we’ll head to Ascot for the two best bets of the day.

There’s a rumour doing the rounds that Father Christmas wears red & white, but I’ve got a sneaking suspicion he might be wearing green and gold on Saturday as JP McManus holds a massive chance of a big race double at the track.

First up at 1.40pm there’s no way I’m going to desert Nicky Henderson’s Binocular in the re-arranged Boylesports International – I think they’ll be playing for places in behind the selection in a race they’ve moved mountains to have re-scheduled.

Fair play to all involved, not least Ascot racecourse plus both Boylesports and Ladbrokes who’ve worked together to get what looks an unmissable contest back on the calendar following a soggy day at Cheltenham last Saturday.

Already an antepost investment for the Champion Hurdle, Binocular is a name that’s cropped up on plenty of occasions in this column, and the four-year-old can enhance his tall reputation at the expense of stablemate, Chomba Womba and Emma Lavelle’s Crack Away Jack.

Placed in listed company in France and versatile as regards the ground, don’t forget he had Crack Away Jack some six and a half lengths adrift in a Juvenile Novices’ Hurdle over course and distance back in January.

He followed that up by justifying odds-on favouritism in the Adonis at Kempton, before finding only the more physically mature seven-year-old Captain Cee Bee too good in a rare old scrap in the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival.

He then re-emerged in spectacular fashion putting the Triumph Hurdle winner Celestial Halo to the sword with brutal ease at Aintree some three weeks later.

Frustrated by the weather last Saturday his only public appearance so far this season was little more than a schooling exercise against inferior rivals at Haydock on Betfair Chase day.

Connections says he more than ready to rubber stamp his place at the head of the Champion Hurdle betting, so help yourself to a bit of 13/8 with either Boylesports, Betfred or Totesport for this weekend’s assignment.

Little more than an hour later, a maximum field of 21 go to post for a fascinating looking Ladbrokes Hurdle, and it’s another Henderson inmate who’ll be carrying my cash in the shape of Aigle D’Or

Ever since the Greatwood when the Halling gelding put in a massive shift as red hot favourite, shaking up a horse who in retrospect was very well treated on a lenient mark of 124 in the shape of Numide, this race has been the target and I can’t resist a slice of the 11/2 generally available as an each way investment.

A lack of confidence by connections in Ashkazar puts me off the second favourite, and greater dangers may lurk at the bottom of the weights with Philip Hobbs’ duo Belcantista and Prince Taime having scraped into the handicap as numbers 20 and 21.

Belcantista is especially interesting having been 25/1 on Monday, before some bloke called JP McManus decided to buy himself an early Christmas present – no surprise he’s subsequently been the antepost gamble of the week, with the buzz horse now only 6/1 in a place.

That said it’ll have to be a good horse that sees off Aigle D’Or. I don’t take any great pleasure in tipping up two favourites in one column, but I do believe these two have oustanding chances to make it a McManus-Henderson-McCoy Saturday treble.

Good luck!

Saturday’s Racing Tips

1:40 Ascot – Binocular to win – 13/8 at either Boylesports or Betfred

2:45 Ascot – Aigle D’or each way – 11/2 at Totesport

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Posted 1 year, 3 months ago

All Aboard for Cheltenham, Navan and Sha Tin‏ Tips

All roads lead to Cheltenham this Friday & Saturday for yours truly, and there’s opportunities a plenty on what looks a cracking card:

Friday’s best bet comes in the Boylepoker.com H’Cap Chase (1.55pm) as Character Building returns to fences in a fascinating looking contest which features 2006 SunAlliance winner Star De Mohaison, this year’s National winner Comply Or Die, plus a host of quality horses.

We missed out on Hennessy Day when Character Building pulled out of his stable lame at breakfast time and failed to make the trip south, and judging by the disappointment in trainer John Quinn’s voice when he broke the news, he was expected to run a mighty race.

Now though, two weeks on, set to carry just 10st 9lb, he’s fit and well and ready to do himself justice at a decent price in his first run over the larger obstacles since finishing third to Denman in the 2007 Hennessy, so get on each way.

Also on Friday – the Cheltenham regulars love the intricacies of the Cross Country course, and the Glenfarclas Cross Country Chase over 3m 7f (1.20pm) is always worth an interest.

Garde Champetre was second in the equivalent race at the November meeting, and could very well go one better with Nina Carberry in the plate, but he has to shoulder 11st 12lb, and with his odds likely to be prohibitively short in the circumstances I prefer to look down the weights for something far less exposed.

The one that appeals to me is Tawnies, who’ll be any price you like with the bookmakers, but is sent over by Thomas O’Leary with a genuine each way chance.

At the time of writing the Cross Country track is heavy in places, and this fella wants mud up to his neck.

He’s unlikely to be found lacking for stamina, and made a fair impression when fourth to Drombeag at Punchestown on his first attempt at a banks course. Factor in that he sneaks in off a true weight of 10st, and you have a fair case for a small each way bet.

Saturday’s card is where I’ll be looking to do some real damage, and in the shape of Binocular we’ve got the horse to form the cornerstone of many a multiple bet in the Boylesports International (3.05pm).

Punters’ll be rowing in with Nicky Henderson’s Champion Hurdle jolly (7/2 best at the time of writing), and with good reason. They absolutely rave about this animal at Seven Barrows.

Beaten only once since joining team Henderson (by Captain Cee Bee when second in the Supreme Novice), the four-year-old made a decent return to the track when winning an egg and spoon contest at long odds on, and at 6/4 (general) he can rubber stamp his Championship claims at the expense of Crack Away Jack, Katchit and Chomba Womba.

Earlier in the day the superstar that took the old Bula Hurdle three years in succession in 1997, ’98 & ‘99, is commemorated in the Relkeel Hurdle at 1.20pm, a race which should go the way of another Henderson inmate Punchestowns.

The way he came readily clear when winning over 2m 5f under top weight on the Sunday of the Open Meeting in an intermediate hurdle means he is entitled to continue his progress here, and with the stable in such sparkling form he’s tough to oppose. �

Starluck is already at least joint favourite in all but one firm’s list for the Triumph Hurdle, and he should be supported to continue his winning streak in the Juvenile Novices’ Hurdle at 12.15pm. His 18 length Fakenham romp was especially taking last time out.

To the delight of each way backers a quality field of 16 poll up for the Boylesports.com Gold Cup at 2.30pm, and I’m sweet on the chances of Finger Onthe Pulse making an impact with AP McCoy booked to do the steering.

The seven-year-old won the Jewson over a similar trip at the Festival, clearly relishes the track, and ran second to Noland at Down Royal last month, form that has been neatly franked by Noland Grade 1 win at Punchestown on Tuesday.

Plenty of pundits are understandably making a strong case for clear favourite Imperial Commander, but at 15/8 I prefer to look elsewhere since trainer Nigel Twiston-Davies’s horses are 1/26 in the last fortnight.

Instead snap up a slice of the 8/1 each way with William Hill, and hope trainer Tom Taaffe can secure the same prize his Dad Pat won as a jockey on Flyingbolt in 1965. It’s probably also worth knowing the sponsor’s have decent money back concession, if your selection finishes second you’ll get your money back.  

Sunday’s action takes us far and wide, from the rural charm of County Meath to the urban delights of Sha Tin, and these horses should keep you glued to the action:

I was at Navan a fortnight ago to see Pandorama stroll enjoy little more than a canter around Navan’s scenic undulations, and Noel Meade’s son of Flemensfirth should step up to Grade 1 level with the minimum of fuss in the Barry & Sandra Kelly Memorial Novices’ Hurdle (1.20pm).

He faces a maximum of three opponents, including stablemate Donnas Palm (2nd to Hurricane Fly in the Royal Bond), and with the best experience of any of these it should be a bloodless task.

Sadly I won’t be at Sha Tin on Sunday, but fotunately Mike de Kock will, and his Eagle Mountain can finally land the Group 1 success he so richly deserves in the Hong Kong Cup. If any one horse deserves a Group 1 success it’s Eagle Mountain - he has Derby 2nd, a Champion Stakes 2nd and a Breeders’ Cup Turf second on his CV, and crucially is still on the upgrade.

Said to have acclimatized well since his time Stateside his jockey Kevin Shea is sweet on his chances, and he can deny home-team favourite Viva Pataca and land us a handsome return at 5/2 (general).

The locals could be in for more bad news in the Group 1 Sprint where Marchand D’Or can get the better of Apache Cat – take the 11/4 with Victor Chandler or Blue Square and watch Marchand D’Or prove he’s not just the best in Europe, but top of the pile worldwide.

Good luck!

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Posted 1 year, 3 months ago

Look to Leicester for the Wednesday Nap‏

You get the impression Nicky Henderson could train a winner with the yard terrier right now, and the recent hot streak can continue with the long-awaited return of Au Courant in Leicester’s opening Beginners’ Chase at 12.50pm.

The eight-year-old, a winner of a bumper and a hurdle race when last seen out some 3 years ago (he has a 1056 day absence to overcome), is said to have schooled like a high-class chaser in the making, and can see off his four rivals to make it a winning return with Tony McCoy in the saddle.

Anyone concerned about the lay-off should bear in mind how adept Henderson seems to be at re-introducing horses from a spell on the sidelines – Clay Hollister’s Sandown romp on Saturday is a case in point, so don’t be put off.

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Posted 1 year, 3 months ago

Noland still the tip to land Punchestown Feature

Severe frost claimed Punchestown’s card on Sunday, but the highlight of the card, the Grade 1 John Durkan Memorial Chase takes places at 2.05pm this afternoon, and we’ve got to have a few quid on Noland to follow up his recent Down Royal success.
 
If you didn’t get involved with Coral’s 11/4 advised on this site on Thursday don’t despair - there’s still a bit of 9/4 to be had with Bet365 who also gurantee best odds, should it drift in the betting come the live shows.

I struggle to see the three milers being able to live with the fleet-footed Noland over 2m 4f, and since he also has form on heavy ground, he can land the day’s big prize.

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Posted 1 year, 3 months ago

Different day, same outcome for the Weekend Nap!

A frosty night in Newcastle put paid to our plans to clean up at Newcastle last Saturday, but Punjabi still holds the whip hand in the re-arranged WBX.com Fighting Fifth Hurdle at Wetherby this Saturday (1.50pm).

Only six now go to post, and with two-time Fighting Fifth winner Harchibald now confined to barracks back in Ireland, this should be a straight-forward task for Nicky Henderson’s classy five-year-old. Both favourites and five-year-olds have a cracking record in the race, and that looks set to improve further still. He’s versatile enough to cope with this sharper track, and should have more than enough up his sleeve to see off Sublimity, who he had in rear at both Cheltenham and Punchestown back in the spring.

If the ground were to dry up then Blue Bajan, a creditable third to the heavily gambled Sentry Duty at Ascot, could be the one for the forecast.

On the back of recent hype regarding a few missed opportunities, it was intriguing to see Paul Nicholls fail to send out a single runner from Sunday to Tuesday this week, and then only one at Plumpton on Wednesday, but he was back in the winners’ enclosure at Wincanton on Thursday, and could have something to smile about when Free World takes his chance in Sandown’s Betinternet.com Henry VIII Novices’ Chase at 2.00pm on Saturday.

The four-year-old has only had three starts in this country, but he bolted up over course and distance at the first time of asking over fences, beating some reasonable opposition by eight lengths and upwards on November Handicap day.

Champion jockey AP McCoy did the steering that day, and you ‘ll have to have been stuck in a very large snow drift all week to fail to know he’s back on board in the aftermath of fevered discussion about Sam Thomas’s current tribulations.

Suffice to say AP got a real tune out of Free World that day; Sandown is a serious test first time out over fences, but the fact all the 33/1 for the Arkle was hoovered up pre-race suggested big things were expected, and he duly delivered. I’m not about to suggest an antepost bet in a race where his trainer is spoilt for choice, but this looks a winnable-looking target as he continues his chasing education.

On the subject of the much-maligned Sam Thomas I might as well throw my hat into the ring and point out what a fantastic jockey he is, and a couple of disappointing results aren’t about to alter that opinion.

A seriously nice guy to boot, he’s a massive talent & will be back in the winners before you know it. Our build ‘em up and knock ‘em down media culture has hung him out to dry in recent days, but why on earth are people so desperate to see him fail? On the back of taking the first two races on the card at Wincanton on Thursday watch him boot home a few winners at Chepstow this weekend, and have a word with yourself if you’re still complaining about him.

What he really needs is a high profile Grade 1 winner to get his name back up in lights, and he can get exactly that as Noland returns to Ireland to line up in Punchestown’s John Durkan Memorial Chase over 2m 4f on Sunday at 2.05pm.

It’s a fascinating race involving none other that 2006 Cheltenham Gold Cup winner War Of Attrition,who’s brought a massive smile to the face of all true jumping fans by winning both of his comeback runs to tentatively re-enter the ‘09 Gold Cup equation, but he could be about to hit a barrier in the shape of the fleet-footed Noland.

I fancy Sam will have too many guns for War Of Attrition over this trip, and Noland can do him for toe to record another win across the Irish sea after he hacked up at Down Royal on November 1st.

Coral are being more than generous with their 11/4 offering about Noland, since Irish firm Paddy Power go only 2/1 and others go as short as 11/8 . Take advantage before it’s gone.

Last up, there’ll be a monster crowd at Sandown on Saturday to see the Tingle Creek Chase, a race I’ve loved watching down the years, the speed chasers thundering over the railway fences and up the hill – brilliant.

Master Minded looked one in a million at Cheltenham in March, and he’s tough to oppose despite the way he folded at Aintree the following month. That said, at the prices I can’t resist having a few quid on Tidal Bay at 100/30 – a stand out price with Ladbrokes.

Never out of the first two in 15 runs, his chasing stats are phenomenal, with six wins from seven appearances, and a runaway Arkle success in his locker. I was at Catterick on Wednesday & watched him have a nice prep on the track after racing, he popped over a couple of fences with Denis O’Regan in the plate and looks in great nick, and if there is to be a miniature upset, he’s the one alright.

Good luck!

Tom’s Weekend Tips
Saturday 6th December
Punjabi – 1:50 Wetherby
Free World – 2:00 Sandown
Tidal Bay - 2:35 Sandown

Sunday 7th December
Noland – 2:05 Punchestown

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Posted 1 year, 3 months ago